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Prudent Investor 1

Prudent Investor 1
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  • American Capital: Good Value, Beware Flattening [View article]
    That's a good point COBeeMan. I think the main difference is that we now know that the end of QE does not equate to a rapid rise in rates. And Yellen has made it clear that she will not surprise the market, as Bernake did.
    Jul 30 10:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital: Good Value, Beware Flattening [View article]
    I agree with Jonathan.

    There is no reason at present to expect any significant increase in interest rates for the next couple of years. The economy is in bad shape. Real unemployment is bad, very bad. Home sales are sputtering. The Obamacare rates are about to hit corporate America this fall. The largest employers in the country will not absorb this increase. That will be a 10-20% pay cut for a large swath of middle and upper middle class. And the cycle for a new recession is nearing. Any attempts by the fed to move rates up will be met by strong opposition from the ruling party given the potential negative economic effects during the presidential election cycle.

    Also 30 year mortgages have risen a full basis point since last. We should be seeing this affect the spread, if not now then in the future.
    Jul 29 11:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL August Dividend Projected To Bring Yield To 22.2% [View article]
    Just because short rates might rise does not mean that these investments will not make money. Rates rising in a measured fashion, as Yellen states, will allow the Reits to adjust over time. Reits make money on the spread. Doesn't really matter where short rates are as long as the spread is widening. Yellen has proven she does not like to surprise the market.
    Jul 18 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL's July Dividend Projected To Increase Significantly - Yield To Be 24.5% On A Monthly Compounded Basis [View article]
    I'm sticking with the Professor on this one. You have done a great job predicting the dividends so far.
    Jul 4 02:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Does REM Pay That 15% Dividend? [View article]
    Remember MORT paid a big one time dividend last year. I believe if you include that dividend with MORT you might have the difference.
    Jun 16 01:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are You Pressing Your Luck With mREITs? [View article]
    Good Article. IMO interest rates will stay low for quite a while. The economy is not well. The labor market is very bad. The Fed is hesitant to tell the plain truth because it would send us back into a recession.
    Jun 3 12:32 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Buying Opportunity Might Present Itself For Annaly [View article]
    The problem is that NLY seems to be less forthcoming with financial details then say AGNC. So one does not know for sure what is waiting around the corner. I was surprised by the recent results. Maybe I was asleep at the wheel while others were paying attention.
    May 8 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL Is Projected To Pay A Monthly Dividend In May Of $0.0679 Bringing The Yield To 22.2% [View article]
    Dr. Brofman, can we predict with any certainty what the big dividend will be if we see a cut to $.20 by NLY and an increase to $.70 by AGNC, all others remaining roughly the same.
    May 8 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital misses by $0.06 [View news story]
    There is no where for interest rates to go for now. Certainly not up, by much if not at all. Yellen tells us the labor market has a long way to go, despite the unemployment rate at 6.3%. So the unemployment rate calculation tells us nothing. All of the new hiring is at low wages. We will be in a recession again before the Fed has a chance to start raising rates IMO.
    May 8 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MORL Is Projected To Pay A Monthly Dividend In May Of $0.0679 Bringing The Yield To 22.2% [View article]
    So what is the dividend effect of NLY on MORL? Will that be offset by other holdings in MORT?

    I am guessing that AGNC will increase their dividend slightly to show that things are headed in a positive direction.
    May 8 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cornerstone Progressive Return Fund Rights Offering Is A Fool's Game [View article]
    So are you suggesting this is a rob peter to pay paul? I am only assuming that Cornerstone believes on the average that they can produce a 17% return. Some times they will produce more, and sometimes less. If they are correct then there is no reason to fret. If one believes that they are not able to do this, then no reason to participate.

    Thanks for the good article.
    May 3 12:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: The Best Is Yet To Come [View article]
    IMO rates aren't going up soon. The latest employment report shows that the large majority of new jobs being created are low wage jobs. This has been the case for some time. And now major corporations are sitting on their hands as they calculate the cost of healthcare for their employees that will hit next year. Cisco has been dumping their highest paid employees for a year. There are many reasons for rates to stay low and few for rates to rise. The economy is in bad shape.
    Apr 30 08:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If Consumers Can't Buy And Can't Refinance, A Recession Follows [View article]
    Unfortunately I fear your analysis has merit. Another point is that recessions come around every 6 to 8 years on average. So we are at that point again based on the past two recessions, 2001, 2007, 2014.
    Feb 3 05:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q4 2013 Book Value Projection [View article]
    Great work Scott. Hopefully we are nearing the end of the down cycle and will begin to see some improvement in dividends in the near future.
    Jan 29 10:03 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Has Bottomed: Multiple Reasons To Run For The Hills [View article]
    Take Five, No the trends are not positive. The labor force participation rate is going down, and real wages are going down, and real unemployment is stuck above 10% The government debt is rising, inflation is non-existent, and taxes are going up. All of this together creates a very bad situation for the working population.

    So the total number of people working is going down, and their wages are going down, and their taxes are rising, and these people must pay for an ever increasing aging population.

    No it's not good.
    Jan 17 04:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment