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  • The 'Great' Roubini: Wrong Again and Again [View article]
    Roubini's timing was, quite obviously, way off. Way off indeed!. However, I'm one who is certain that his prediction will eventually be proven accurate. IMHO we have not yet seen the absolute lows. Not unlike the Great Depression...(and I'm not suggesting we are going there again)...the market crashed, but then recovered somewhat for a while. It was another three or so years before the s--t really hit the fan and economys truely began unwinding. I think we are once more in that "hell, it can't get much worse" frame of mind right now. "it can't get much worse, so it must be it's going to get better". Let's buy more stocks! Mr. market's infamous self-fulfilling prophocies. (and it works...until it dosen't)
    I wont speculate as to what will pull this market back down...'cause I don't know. Crazy inflation? A new bubble of worthless assets created by the Risk-Loving banks / investment houses / hedge funds etc.? Maybe troubles arise with another vital world economy ? China comes to mind, maybe? Who knows? But this brave new world of useless 'stimulus' and ever growing debt that has no real end in sight...This cannot and WILL not keep everone happy forever.
    Roubini will have his day, saddly. He was only half wrong when he said, "it will get ugly in 2009...". 2009 was the wrong year.
    Mar 8, 2010. 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeremy Siegel Digs in His Heels About Stocks [View article]
    The VERY important key to Mr. Siegel's bullish call on stocks is his definition of 'long term'. He, somewhat like W. Buffet, defines long term as a veeeeerrrrrry looooonnnnnnngggggg time. Decades and lifetimes...not months or years.
    As the author indicates in this article, if one is 50, 60 years old or older, then it may be to late in life to expect to see Siegel's rosey long term returns in one's own portfolio.
    In his eventual grave, alas, Mr. Siegel's heels will truely be 'dug in'. He may indeed be wildly wealthy.....but he'll be dead.
    Oct 14, 2009. 03:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can't Stop the Market Bulls [View article]
    The Mole:
    Thank you for the link to Reuter's "Times of Crisis".
    An excelent timeline / history of were we are and how we got here!
    I have bookmarked for future reference and study, and e-mailed to many interested friends and contacts.
    Thanks again!
    Sep 17, 2009. 02:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Ignore Risks, Chase Market Higher [View article]
    I admire your courage in being short this market...I honestly do!
    It brings to mind, however, the old and proven adage..."the market can remain irrational far longer than most can remain solvent."
    I'm certain that the time to be short is coming, but I doubt it is here yet. The trend of Econ. indicators is going to be modestly positive (meaning 'less bad') fo a while. Not forever...but for a while. And the market media and the administration are going to hype-up every little positive/less bad tidbit, while they downplay or ignore those that are more negative. (in effect...reality). It is not by accident that Obama is giving economic speeches...Bernanke is speaking at various forums...Geithner is giving interveiws to the networks...etc, etc. There is a ton of 'political capital' to be gained from a rising market...and every effort will be made to prevent a reversal. The market's Professional Traders are happy to play along for now...they are making a pile of money off of this rally. And, as usual, it will be they, the Wall St. Pros, who will decide when it's over.
    JMHO!!! Good Luck all.....

    On Sep 16 12:07 PM buyitcheap wrote:

    > All true, and being short, I'm running out of walls to bang my head
    > on.
    Sep 16, 2009. 03:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF Takes a Hit on UBS Downgrades [View article]
    What is your time-frame for holding this stock ?
    And would you be injured if MOS took a tumble ?
    IMHO, Mosaic will trade much higher than $49.....eventually. I will not speculate, however, on when or how much. This company should be one of those that will always be here...and will likely trade in concert with the supply and demand of the worlds AG needs.(and those needs aren't going away)
    My personal feeling, though, is that MOS will probably not go back to the price highs it saw in 2008 any time soon, if ever,even. Those prices were the result of momentum and speculative buying as traders looked for anything that was working while the general market trended down.
    The current lull in demand, plus the downgrade, may push MOS lower from here. Who knows for sure?...I don't.
    Your personal price goal for this stock, your time-frame, and your willingness to accept volatility should guide the next step.
    Good luck to you...

    Disclosure: I do not hold any ag stocks right now, but watching.
    Aug 30, 2009. 05:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pace of Insider Sales Continues to Escalate [View article]
    Good points made by many posters, and a thank you to Ockham Research for the information.
    Insider selling, or buying, is of course subjective. There can be many reasons why an officer may decide to sell or buy shares of their business. Most have been mentioned above in other posts, so I wont repeat. The important point, therefore, becomes...what is "normal" insider activity?, and what is "abnormal" activity?
    Judging from the Trim Tab's indicator from the article,(IMHO), I think it's fair to say that current insider activity is FAR FAR away from being normal. For every 'one' insider buying shares, there are 30.6 insiders selling? That is NOT normal...or even close.
    Nothing wrong with being a little cautious.
    Good luck all.....
    Aug 29, 2009. 02:49 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG Is Dead, Long Live AIG [View article]
    An Analogy, of sorts :
    " I'm broke! But it's OK."
    " You see, I have a Hummer that used to be worth over $40,000 a little while back. Now, though, I could only get maybe $8,000 or $9,000 if I were to sell it. I really don't want to sell it for such a low price...but, after all, I am broke...and I need some cash."
    " Then my brother called. (what a lucky ba_tard I am!) He said he would loan me $40,000 to help out.....and then, once the prices of Hummers recovered, I could sell it, and then pay him back. I might even have a little left over."
    " I'm so lucky to have such a good brother! I think things are going to be just fine."
    Aug 28, 2009. 03:51 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett's Betrayal [View article]
    I'm with you, JP.
    I remember those get-togethers he and Gates would hold and some of his ideas...and I remember thinking at the time, "Warren, buddy, you can't be serious!".
    The capper for me came when he was traveling around California with Arnold Schwartzenegger during the recall campaign for Governor a few years back. At a couple campaign stops that were well covered by the press, he said, refering to how to bolster the State's economy: ( and this is an exact quote...I wrote it down)
    "I would strongly advise that California repeal Proposition 13. If one cannot afford to pay a fair tax on their property, then they should have to give it up....." (Prop 13 was put in place by an overwhelming public vote at a time when property values were rising at an alarming pace, along with property taxes, and forcing longtime homeowners (especially those on fixed incomes ) out of their homes because of their inability to pay the ever increasing taxes.)
    The next day the Schwartzenegger campaign bannished Buffet back to Omaha and spent the rest of their campaign trying to distance themselves from his comments.
    Like you, JP, I have little respect for the 'Oracle'.

    On Aug 05 04:01 PM JPSmith wrote:

    > I lost all respect for Buffet several years ago when he and Bill
    > Gates started arguing for higher inheritance tax rates, trying to
    > frame this as a "moral issue" when it was a transparent effort to
    > boost his insurance businesses.
    Aug 8, 2009. 03:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP: Here's a More Realistic Look [View article]
    Many comment, accurately, about the cheerleading and misinformation that spews forth each day from CNBC.....and in MHO it has really become rediculous of late.....
    What saddens me even more than all their efforts to manipulate public sentiment in terms of the markets, however, is that WE...the public (myself included,until recently)...continue to watch and absorb the steady stream of 'stuff' they put out each day.
    Might I offer a suggestion, for what it's worth:
    A few days ago I sent an E-mail to CNBC corporate...(who knows were those things go?)...politely letting them know that I was very dissatisfied with the tenor of their market coverage and that by distorting financial news to the upside while giving only lip-service to the realities, they were doing a great disservice to their audience. I then concluded by telling them that I would no longer be watching their programming and had, and still have, permanently '"Blocked" CNBC from my life...and hopefully from my consciousness as well.
    It's only been a few days, but already I feel a little better :)
    So I suggest, for those who truely dislike or distrust CNBC's coverage...just simply turn it off...and never go back. It may feel at first a little like trying to give up cigarettes, or even drugs...but your brain will thank you.
    I have found that Bloomberg TV, though not perfect, and compared to CNBC, almost boring, is a much better venue for simply getting the financial news with a hell of a lot less hype and puffery.
    You wont have Cramer, Kneale, Kudlow et-al to kick around anymore, but you care?
    Anyway, for what it's worth...thanks.
    Aug 2, 2009. 03:27 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starting Short Positions in Eaton, Wynn Resorts and Capital One Financial [View article]
    For what it's worth, CNBC may have given us a fairly reliable 'Sell' signal yesterday.
    Like the old adage; "when you see the trade on the cover of Time's to late to take the trade", on his CNBC post-market show yesterday, Larry Kudlow declared with great fervor that "We are now in the NEXT GREAT BULL MARKET !!!"
    He continued his declaration throughout the entire show and prodded each of his guest 'regulars' to accept his pronouncement as FACT, or prove him wrong beyond doubt. Most went along and accepted his statement...and the couple who said "eeehhhh, not so fast, Larry..." were politely laughed off or cut short. I must say, it was entertaining, though disturbing, television.
    This decloration, to me, is eerilly similar to that of Jim Cramer's back in the last qtr of 2008, when he spent his whole Mad Money show gleefully dancing around the set saying over and over..."The tide has turned, buy stocks, the NEXT GREAT BULL MARKET has begun !!!" Of course, a few days later, the market rolled over and collapsed to eventually hit the floor in March this year. Those that 'bought' Cramer's whacked...hard.
    Well, I guess only time will tell if Kudlow's timing is any better.
    Jul 31, 2009. 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Smooth Sailing for DryShips [View article]
    Much of the Baltic's index revival has been a result of Asian stimulus efforts and restocking of raw materials when commodity prices and shipping rates were down. This is all well and good, as long as it continues. Now, however, there seems to be a building concern that the stimulus programs.....mostly in China.....are reaching unsustainable levels and a bubble of sorts is developing in the Asian markets.
    Recent history should still be crystal clear in our minds...let's hope.
    If the "C" in "BRIC" begins to roll over, the Baltic Index...and DRYS...will soon follow. IMHO, this possibility bears watching very closely with ones finger hovering over the 'Sell', or 'Short' button for those trading the sector. Good Luck all.
    Jul 31, 2009. 02:29 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saving CIT: Good News for the Confidence of the Entire Financial System [View article]
    Personal opinion only...
    Like the article mentioned, CIT's ideas for recovery were; Plan A: Ask the Government for financial aid.....Plan B: Ask again (pleeeeease!).
    What we may be seeing develope Plan C.....which goes like this, more or less:
    Plan C-part 1: Bondholders, in a show of confidence and good will, offer to loan CIT $3bln at 10.5% to give the franchise the opportunity to restructure loans/debts and pay off Aug. 09 obligations.
    Plan C-part 2: While their $3bln is being rapidly used up by a poorly managed CIT, Pimco's Bill Gross and the other Bondholders go to Washington and lobby the HELL out the Treasury, the Fed, Obama, Sheila Behr, Geitner...everybody...... pushing that " if CIT fails and goes under...your Economic Recovery Plan will likely go under with it!. You MUST help us out!!!"
    Plan C-part 3: Ask once again...

    Jul 21, 2009. 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Personal Income, Savings and Retail Stocks: Reality Speaks [View article]
    Thank you for ...IMHO...a good look at the reality of the current economic conditions and your synopsis of the Market's sometimes silly reactions to them. Alas, however, the market seems to always react the short term. It always has; in good times and bad. It's the age-old game of the 'smart money' guys trying to coerce money out of the pockets of the less sophisticated 'dumb money' guys. The Government, also, has always offered a helping hand in this game as alluded to in your mention of 'Shadow Stats'. This, saddly, is also nothing new. The 'Published' unemployment numbers, for example, have always been 2 to 4 percent lower than the 'Reality' numbers. A study of the late 90's Tech Bubble reveals an amazing plethera of 'bent and distorted' numbers offered up by corporations, administration officials, Greenspan and The Fed, CEOs, CFOs, market analysts, stock analysts...and of course, CNBC...just to name a few. The 'smart money' guys and gals all knew the game was fixed...but nobody cared...because the market just kept going up. (until in did'nt anymore...and then they were the first ones out.)
    I think today's market has become one strictly for the traders and short term swing and momentum folks. The old days of Buy and Hold are, for the forseeable future, gone. The global and U.S. picture is just too cloudy going forward to confidently put long-term money to work right now, IMO.
    For the nimble, risk averse traders out there, however, these are truely the Golden Days in Paradise.
    Thanks again for an excellent article
    Jun 28, 2009. 04:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Solarfun Earnings Could be the Perfect Trigger for a Short Squeeze [View article]
    Mistermaumau: I appreciate your comments---Thank you. I'm in the process of studying more deeply into solar, wind, and the worlds needs and opportunities outside the USA. Your comments are, indeed, helpful.
    May 16, 2008. 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solarfun Earnings Could be the Perfect Trigger for a Short Squeeze [View article]
    Although I can't dispute the Author's points, which I think make very good sense, I have taken profits on a %age of my solar and wind positions today.
    I have this uneasy feeling that, fairly soon, Congress will announce that they will reduce or eliminate the current Breaks awarded to Alternative Energy businesses when they expire at the end of '08. The incentive to renew these advantages diminishes, I think, as price parity with oil and gas diminishes.(JMHO)
    I think the solar and wind names are pricing in that the Breaks will be renewed and extended for the next 2 or 3 years...Which of course is possible. But if Congress should pull the plug, all these stocks will experience a rapid and deep sell-off. The risks, short term, are mounting. Am I nuts ??? Opinions please!.
    May 16, 2008. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment