Seeking Alpha

Ad-Serving Veteran » Comments » Single Comment |

  • Microsoft in Perfect Position to Undercut Previous Yahoo Offer [View article]
    I concur with the above. I found a few things I disagree with in this article:
    1. I do not follow any of your valuation calculations. You say due to MSN "owning" 10% of the search market, this values MSN at $10-15B? Is this saying that the search market is $100-150B? That practically all of MSN's value is derived from search? (And the same math applied to Yahoo's value?). Regardless of how you got there, I'll give you a value of $21.42/share because that is near where it was at before the offer.
    2. I think instead of meaning $6B in Cash Flow, you were referring to $6B in Estimated Revenue? And Yahoo's and Google's margins are different and in this case not comparable. It is pie-in-the-sky to think that Yahoo's estimated Net Profit of $798M will come close to $2.2B. That is 176% higher than expected. And this is why Yahoo has a forward P/E of 48 at the moment and not 21.
    3. Based on Google's past growth, it will make $47B in less than 6 years... likely more around 4 years with the forecasts for overall search advertising and the other lines of business it is getting into. This is why it is not foolish for the two to merge--it is riskier not to as Google gobbles up the advertising spend.
    4. What incentive would Microsoft have to "come back to the table" when the shares hit 15-20. I think you would mean *Yahoo* will come back based on it being the one to hold out for $37. Microsoft is already "willing" to buy Yahoo at $33 or less...
    5. Microsoft's offer to buy at $31 (above your $21-25 target) was generous, not foolish. Microsoft wants to merge Yahoo with good will and retain top talent.

    and Buzzly--can you provide a link to the WSJ source? I'm interested in reading more. I have been watching the Calls and Puts and have not seen this volume/trading you are referring to.
    May 16 17:07 pm |Rating: 0 0
All Comments by Ad-Serving Veteran »
Comments by Ticker
Ad-Serving Veteran's
Comments Stats
2 comments
Rating: 0 (0 - 0 )