Google's Total Ad Server Market Share a Dominant 57% [View article]
I fail to see the logic in any of these numbers.
By my quick math, the sum of these "unique users" comes to roughly 5.76 Billion. Are you trying to tell me that the internet now has 85% penetration across the world's entire population (6.7B)?
As the quickest example I could find to compare--InternetWorld... shows the current global online population to be about 1.5B (~22% of the population, and I find this much more agreeable).
[And I know we are not counting unique ad impressions because a few of these companies serve billions per day.]
If we are not counting unique people, are we counting unique 'bots & spiders'? Perhaps we rename the title to: Google's total crawled share dominates at 57%...
I do not find this data informative at all market-share & comparison wise. Several of these numbers I know to be wrong.
Microsoft in Perfect Position to Undercut Previous Yahoo Offer [View article]
I concur with the above. I found a few things I disagree with in this article: 1. I do not follow any of your valuation calculations. You say due to MSN "owning" 10% of the search market, this values MSN at $10-15B? Is this saying that the search market is $100-150B? That practically all of MSN's value is derived from search? (And the same math applied to Yahoo's value?). Regardless of how you got there, I'll give you a value of $21.42/share because that is near where it was at before the offer. 2. I think instead of meaning $6B in Cash Flow, you were referring to $6B in Estimated Revenue? And Yahoo's and Google's margins are different and in this case not comparable. It is pie-in-the-sky to think that Yahoo's estimated Net Profit of $798M will come close to $2.2B. That is 176% higher than expected. And this is why Yahoo has a forward P/E of 48 at the moment and not 21. 3. Based on Google's past growth, it will make $47B in less than 6 years... likely more around 4 years with the forecasts for overall search advertising and the other lines of business it is getting into. This is why it is not foolish for the two to merge--it is riskier not to as Google gobbles up the advertising spend. 4. What incentive would Microsoft have to "come back to the table" when the shares hit 15-20. I think you would mean *Yahoo* will come back based on it being the one to hold out for $37. Microsoft is already "willing" to buy Yahoo at $33 or less... 5. Microsoft's offer to buy at $31 (above your $21-25 target) was generous, not foolish. Microsoft wants to merge Yahoo with good will and retain top talent.
and Buzzly--can you provide a link to the WSJ source? I'm interested in reading more. I have been watching the Calls and Puts and have not seen this volume/trading you are referring to.
Google's Total Ad Server Market Share a Dominant 57% [View article]
By my quick math, the sum of these "unique users" comes to roughly 5.76 Billion. Are you trying to tell me that the internet now has 85% penetration across the world's entire population (6.7B)?
As the quickest example I could find to compare--InternetWorld... shows the current global online population to be about 1.5B (~22% of the population, and I find this much more agreeable).
[And I know we are not counting unique ad impressions because a few of these companies serve billions per day.]
If we are not counting unique people, are we counting unique 'bots & spiders'? Perhaps we rename the title to: Google's total crawled share dominates at 57%...
I do not find this data informative at all market-share & comparison wise. Several of these numbers I know to be wrong.
Microsoft in Perfect Position to Undercut Previous Yahoo Offer [View article]
1. I do not follow any of your valuation calculations. You say due to MSN "owning" 10% of the search market, this values MSN at $10-15B? Is this saying that the search market is $100-150B? That practically all of MSN's value is derived from search? (And the same math applied to Yahoo's value?). Regardless of how you got there, I'll give you a value of $21.42/share because that is near where it was at before the offer.
2. I think instead of meaning $6B in Cash Flow, you were referring to $6B in Estimated Revenue? And Yahoo's and Google's margins are different and in this case not comparable. It is pie-in-the-sky to think that Yahoo's estimated Net Profit of $798M will come close to $2.2B. That is 176% higher than expected. And this is why Yahoo has a forward P/E of 48 at the moment and not 21.
3. Based on Google's past growth, it will make $47B in less than 6 years... likely more around 4 years with the forecasts for overall search advertising and the other lines of business it is getting into. This is why it is not foolish for the two to merge--it is riskier not to as Google gobbles up the advertising spend.
4. What incentive would Microsoft have to "come back to the table" when the shares hit 15-20. I think you would mean *Yahoo* will come back based on it being the one to hold out for $37. Microsoft is already "willing" to buy Yahoo at $33 or less...
5. Microsoft's offer to buy at $31 (above your $21-25 target) was generous, not foolish. Microsoft wants to merge Yahoo with good will and retain top talent.
and Buzzly--can you provide a link to the WSJ source? I'm interested in reading more. I have been watching the Calls and Puts and have not seen this volume/trading you are referring to.