kildonan

Oil: If It Looks Like a Bubble...

Also I want to add that the increasing focus on speculation, oil company profits, etc, all tend to blur the more important issues facing us.

Oil: If It Looks Like a Bubble...

Yes I will agree that oil prices are starting to affect consumption in the Western world and will also have increasing impact in all countries if they continue to increase or stay at these levels.

However US consumption of oil is 20 -25% of total world demand/production, and we must continue to reduce either by increasing fuel efficiencies, use of alternative fuels (such as natural gas, nuclear, wind, solar, etc. Otherwise the increase in consumption of energy in the emerging areas (Chindia, Brazil, etc) will not be offset by either the fall in Western worlds's demand or OPEC/Saudi's attempts to increase production.

Oil prices are a global commodity and prices here are determined by the world-at-large, although as the biggest consumer, the USA must one day take seriously it's stake in reducing consumption. The decision by US leaders to do so, will have significant impact on the huge transfer of wealth to and from producer countries (OPEC etc.) and consumer countries (North America, Europe, China).

The mega-billion dollar question is whether any of the US leadership is listening and whether they have the stomach to take the needed steps to educate and truly lead the American population of the importance of reducing their consumption. The USA can only produce 25% of what they consume, so our ability to shift the Supply/Demand basis for the oil price is regrettably limited to the consumption/demand side of the equation.

Solution to the Global Petroleum Crisis

Let see let's regulate the oil price at $40 - $80/bbl...
we'll take 1.5MMbopd off the market from the Canadian oil sands, and halt construction of another 2.0MMbopd of future oil sands production (2012 - 2014). I guess the offshore Brazil stuff is no longer economical, and we might as well forget about ANWR ever being explored/developed. And I guess the US government will subsidize the oil price to US consumers to the tune of $100 - $150/bbl for the next 10-years. Just guess the value of the USD then!

Stay Long the Commodity Inflation Trade

Is commodity inflation the correct term?

www.theglobeandmail.co...

"Everybody calls prices going up 'inflation,' but a lot of the prices going up are not inflation but are supply and demand signals," said Martin Murenbeeld, chief economist at Dundee Wealth Management Ltd. "The U.S. Federal Reserve Board has essentially zero control over food and energy prices," he said. "They can just jawbone and hope food and energy doesn't work itself through the labour force wage structure."

The Great Oil Deception: Part Two

jeez.... i thought he was getting off his soapbox for the last time....

The Great Oil Deception: Part Two

You have to be more of a big picture guy! You can't just look at the cost indices of various factors such as steel, rig day-rates, etc. You can't look at the cost to drill a well, but you have to look at the cost per barrel of production. Ghawar, with cost of a few dollars per barrel and billions of barrels, are no more to be found.

Same as your earlier article - you can't just look at one year over year change, but look at the past 5- years and the next five - ten years of consumption from China. Where oh where will the production come from to satisfy this growth profile.

Steel's inputs such as iron ore and coking coal - where will be the future production come from to drop the price back down to yesteryear's levels.

OECD demand for oil may not grow, but will it decrease? Will the decrease be more or less than the growth from China, India, Brazil? When will Americans stop driving? When will the US politicians have the stomach to increase taxes on gasoline or reduce oil consumption?

Eric - see the big picture!

1,238 Billion Barrels of Oil Reserves: Is This an Oil Price Bubble?

Sorry Mr. Hayward, but those reserves don't belong to BP, ExxonMobil, Shell et al. They belong to those sovereign countries who may decide to enjoy the higher oil price rather than share it with you.

The major oil execs have been downplaying the rise in energy prices... why? Obviously they are no better than many others in predicting where oil prices are going, but perhaps it is in order to reduce sovereign countries' desire to control such valuable assets.

The USA in particular will (must) learn to use these assets (much of which is imported) more wisely in order to survive in the long run. Higher energy prices are here to stay and ANWR (if it ever is explored) is not the panacea that many believe. The cost to discover, produce, and transport at the same time as protect the environment, will be quite high. At the consumption rates of the USA, any proven reserves there would not last long in any case.

As others have stated, recoverable reserves - and the cost to recover those reserves is a critical issue that the author does not really consider. The sooner that investors in the western world really understand that although an integral part of the world economy, there are now many other major economies that will place huge demands on the world's reserves of all non-renewables.

This time it really is different. Commodities (Oil; Gas; Base Metals; Gold) - A once in a lifetime investment opportunity.

Argentina’s Merval Index: An Overview

Sorry ottorock, for this late rebuttal, but argie1 does appear to know more about TS. As someone who is in the same business as Tenaris, the world of pipe definitely views them as Argentinian, mind and management. While a truly Global company and a dominating force in the world of energy tubulars, their roots are in Buenos Aires. While the Rocca's came from Italian roots, the success of Tenaris/Techint are truly of Argentina. btw Confab is Brazilian.