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The Fox

The Fox
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  • Harley-Davidson: Rare Value In A Premium Brand [View article]
    I, too, am interested in HOG, but using the 12% growth rate in order to evaluate the investment seems very optimistic in my view. I think half that is more realistic. Didn't they just report negative year-over-year sales "growth"? It isn't a screaming buy here but in a market with very little value it is worth a look.
    May 15, 2015. 07:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baidu's Struggles May Be Bigger Than Realized [View article]
    I don't consider what I said "shameless pumping". Do you? I think you are embellishing a bit. Regardless, you tried to make a point based on two stocks over a given time period. I could do the same with AAPL and RIMM and make Apple look like the loser. So I guess my shameless pumping was countered by your shameless bashing? It doesn't matter. All that matters is tomorrow and beyond. That will determine the correct opinion. I believe the better investment, especially considering the 60 point sell off, will be BIDU over the next 18 months or so. If you feel differently that is fine. I wouldn't hold it against you. Good luck.

    Oh...one last tid bit. Yahoo has BABA to thank for a LOT of those stock gains. Without that investment it would be a lot closer to $15 than $40. Just saying.
    May 6, 2015. 08:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baidu's Struggles May Be Bigger Than Realized [View article]
    Ummm...lets redo the math in March of 2000 when Yahoo peaked at $125. Care to do that analysis? The other guy had it right.
    May 6, 2015. 11:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Biogen Sells Off On Short-Term Worries, But It's The Pipeline That Will Reward Long-Term Investors [View article]
    OK...enlighten us as to the problems concerning Tecfidera and Avonex...
    May 2, 2015. 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biogen Sells Off On Short-Term Worries, But It's The Pipeline That Will Reward Long-Term Investors [View article]
    Good point on the IBB angle. I hadn't considered how much heavy selling in that ETF would affect BIIB. The stock had a nice today. Hopefully, it is finding some support here in the $380s. Take care.
    May 1, 2015. 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biogen Sells Off On Short-Term Worries, But It's The Pipeline That Will Reward Long-Term Investors [View article]
    I don't know that I believe this big a drop is due to weak Tecfidera sales which was the result of several issues (cannibalization, brain infection concerns, etc.). I believe, now that the hype has died down, that there are concerns over how effective / successful aducanumab will be in Phase III trials. As you stated, it did show statistical significance which is promising, but it appears a higher dose is needed to achieve that statistical significance and several patients experienced brain swelling. This is going to be an issue for Biogen. If they release a product that has serious side effects then you have to wonder if people will want it / physicians will prescribe it. It will be interesting to see what happens.

    At the end of the day, I just don't believe Biogen went from $480 to $370 on slowing sales of Tecfidera. Not by a long shot.
    Apr 30, 2015. 04:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What I Need To See Twitter Do Before I Can Jump In [View article]
    You're too late to jump in. The time to do that was 15 points ago.
    Apr 6, 2015. 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Jury Ready? Time To Evaluate AbbVie Post-Spinoff [View article]
    Ummm...you missed the key phrase. He said "buy and hold with EYES WIDE SHUT is a recipe for disaster". There is no debating that is true. The old lady who gets rich holding, that never reevaluated her investment(s), got lucky. The story worked out for her. It could have gone to zero just the same. You must consistently reassess the story. A lot of buy and holders don't.
    Mar 24, 2015. 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A No-Nonsense Projection Of Gilead In 2015 [View article]
    Ted...do you have the temperament to own stocks.? Seven months....really?
    Mar 19, 2015. 08:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: In Need Of A Little Adult Supervision [View article]
    Not possible...a pipe dream. It is the worst comparison he could have made. Like the author, I think Tesla's are technological marvels. The company itself is bush league compared to Apple or a host of other well run companies. I know Tesla can turn it around, but the conference call was a joke and Musk is drinking the Kool-aid.
    Feb 13, 2015. 07:51 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Power Of Fear: Is Gilead A Buy Or Sell In 2015 After 1st Quarter Guidance? [View article]
    I read a lot of emotion in your post. Maybe just buy index funds and sleep better at night?
    Feb 4, 2015. 11:22 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much 'Extra' Return Are You Getting If You Reinvest Dividends? [View article]
    Jerry,

    Don't we all time the market though? When we determine "at this point in time" that a stock is undervalued...aren't we timing the market so to speak? I don't buy unless something is a value (or at least I think it is a value). Therefore, I am waiting for the time to come to buy...say...oil stocks (now). I don't know that I am on board with the "can't time the market" angle. Take care.
    Jan 28, 2015. 10:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much 'Extra' Return Are You Getting If You Reinvest Dividends? [View article]
    OK...if that is the case I don't think it is such a big deal. I thought it was reinvesting the dividends at 5% below the market price.
    Jan 28, 2015. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much 'Extra' Return Are You Getting If You Reinvest Dividends? [View article]
    Chowder,

    Now that is a game changer. Give me a 5% discount on a great company and I will concede that it would be foolish not to reinvest the dividends in that company.
    Jan 28, 2015. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much 'Extra' Return Are You Getting If You Reinvest Dividends? [View article]
    I get it. I really do. But, in order for this to be the best decision then JNJ would need to out perform another investment of that $560. Do I think I could pick a stock over the next 5 years that would meet that criteria? Yes...probably. Do I know for sure? No...because it is impossible to know.

    I believe that many of the financials and oil stocks will out perform JNJ over the next 5 years. I believe that once interest rates go up (they must at some point) you will see stocks like BAC, WFC, etc. out perform. Same with oil stocks. Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and many other countries have budgets that, in order to be met, require oil to be $80+ per barrel. Over the short term I have no idea where the price will go. Over the long term I am very confident it will be much higher. So...I believe dividends should go into investments that are beaten down and have a high probability of bouncing back again. I think oil stocks fit the bill (SLB, Exxon, Chevron, Connoco, etc.)

    I want to be clear that I don't think reinvesting money into JNJ is bad. I don't at all. I think blindly reinvesting dividends into potentially overvalued equities isn't the best use of your money. In fact, I know it isn't. Good luck, Dave. We share the same first name, so I know you must be pretty smart:)
    Jan 28, 2015. 10:14 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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