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The Fox

The Fox
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  • Is The Jury Ready? Time To Evaluate AbbVie Post-Spinoff [View article]
    Ummm...you missed the key phrase. He said "buy and hold with EYES WIDE SHUT is a recipe for disaster". There is no debating that is true. The old lady who gets rich holding, that never reevaluated her investment(s), got lucky. The story worked out for her. It could have gone to zero just the same. You must consistently reassess the story. A lot of buy and holders don't.
    Mar 24, 2015. 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A No-Nonsense Projection Of Gilead In 2015 [View article]
    Ted...do you have the temperament to own stocks.? Seven months....really?
    Mar 19, 2015. 08:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: In Need Of A Little Adult Supervision [View article]
    Not possible...a pipe dream. It is the worst comparison he could have made. Like the author, I think Tesla's are technological marvels. The company itself is bush league compared to Apple or a host of other well run companies. I know Tesla can turn it around, but the conference call was a joke and Musk is drinking the Kool-aid.
    Feb 13, 2015. 07:51 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Power Of Fear: Is Gilead A Buy Or Sell In 2015 After 1st Quarter Guidance? [View article]
    I read a lot of emotion in your post. Maybe just buy index funds and sleep better at night?
    Feb 4, 2015. 11:22 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much 'Extra' Return Are You Getting If You Reinvest Dividends? [View article]
    Jerry,

    Don't we all time the market though? When we determine "at this point in time" that a stock is undervalued...aren't we timing the market so to speak? I don't buy unless something is a value (or at least I think it is a value). Therefore, I am waiting for the time to come to buy...say...oil stocks (now). I don't know that I am on board with the "can't time the market" angle. Take care.
    Jan 28, 2015. 10:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much 'Extra' Return Are You Getting If You Reinvest Dividends? [View article]
    OK...if that is the case I don't think it is such a big deal. I thought it was reinvesting the dividends at 5% below the market price.
    Jan 28, 2015. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much 'Extra' Return Are You Getting If You Reinvest Dividends? [View article]
    Chowder,

    Now that is a game changer. Give me a 5% discount on a great company and I will concede that it would be foolish not to reinvest the dividends in that company.
    Jan 28, 2015. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much 'Extra' Return Are You Getting If You Reinvest Dividends? [View article]
    I get it. I really do. But, in order for this to be the best decision then JNJ would need to out perform another investment of that $560. Do I think I could pick a stock over the next 5 years that would meet that criteria? Yes...probably. Do I know for sure? No...because it is impossible to know.

    I believe that many of the financials and oil stocks will out perform JNJ over the next 5 years. I believe that once interest rates go up (they must at some point) you will see stocks like BAC, WFC, etc. out perform. Same with oil stocks. Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and many other countries have budgets that, in order to be met, require oil to be $80+ per barrel. Over the short term I have no idea where the price will go. Over the long term I am very confident it will be much higher. So...I believe dividends should go into investments that are beaten down and have a high probability of bouncing back again. I think oil stocks fit the bill (SLB, Exxon, Chevron, Connoco, etc.)

    I want to be clear that I don't think reinvesting money into JNJ is bad. I don't at all. I think blindly reinvesting dividends into potentially overvalued equities isn't the best use of your money. In fact, I know it isn't. Good luck, Dave. We share the same first name, so I know you must be pretty smart:)
    Jan 28, 2015. 10:14 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much 'Extra' Return Are You Getting If You Reinvest Dividends? [View article]
    I can absolutely understand why someone wouldn't reinvest dividends in a company they own. If you have holdings that are fully valued (but aren't interested in selling), and wouldn't buy more at the current price then how could it make sense to buy more using dividends? Take the dividends and reinvest them in something that is undervalued and you should do better over time. Personally, I think it is easy for investors to go on autopilot and just reinvest in the stocks they love. I don't think it is "bad"...just not necessarily the best idea depending on where the company is trading.

    For instance, personally, I would absolutely be reinvesting all dividends from oil stocks back into the shares because I believe they are undervalued. Conversely, I wouldn't be allocating dividends into shares of, say, Starbucks because I think it is fully / overvalued (although I think it is a fabulous company).

    Just my two cents, of course. The fact that people are investing in solid companies is a winning strategy regardless of how you play it.
    Jan 26, 2015. 08:15 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay: A No-Brainer [View article]
    It always amazes me how eBay articles bring out all the disgruntled eBay sellers. We are talking about the stock...not your bad experience selling the gym equipment you never used. I agree with the author....looks good here.
    Jan 23, 2015. 11:56 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Express Scripts/AbbVie HCV deal should not be surprising [View news story]
    What battle? There is no battle to be fought Franky. The choice is made for you. There are three choices if you have Hep C, want to get better, and Express Scripts is your insurer:

    A) Take Abbvie's drug and pay very little
    B) Take Gilead's drug and set yourself back $100k
    C) Die

    Good luck with "fighting the good fight". ES will bury you in paperwork and it will take forever to get the approval. That is the way it works. If you are a Hematologist you wouldn't dispute this. The system is set up to frustrate and overwhelm well meaning physicians. It is sad really.
    Dec 23, 2014. 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Is The Devil? Will Gilead Fall Or Soar In 2015? [View article]
    Tony,

    Let me be clear that I don't think Gilead is under ANY obligation to lower the price of their drugs the same way that GM isn't under any obligation to lower the price of cars. It is their intellectual property to price as they see fit. My point was that this situation isn't about people...it is about money. It doesn't take actuaries to decipher what is at stake here. You have opposing business models where if one makes more (Gilead) the other makes less (Express Scripts). It is quite simple. I am pretty confident that neither side was willing to give ground "for the greater good" once it didn't make sense from a business perspective. Money ALWAYS wins out. I am not mad about it. I just try and profit from it. One thing that does make me smile is that Abbvie's stock is down on this "great deal". Hopefully, that will temper companies from cutting exclusive (bad) deals going forward.

    One comment you made that I disagree with is "we are in the early innings". My wife is a biotech sales rep, and she thinks it is hilarious that people think this exclusive agreement is new. She told me "these deals have been going on forever". She seriously couldn't believe all the attention this is getting.
    Dec 23, 2014. 06:10 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Is The Devil? Will Gilead Fall Or Soar In 2015? [View article]
    My wife has been a pharma employee for the past two decades, so I too have experience in this area. I also respect your opinion, but you are very close to this topic being a pharma employee (able to be completely objective?). I wouldn't disagree that a pharma company might view this as you do (tired of the dog and pony show insurance companies put people through), but your industry is the exception not the rule (again IMO). I think it is much more important for mainstream America, from their perspective, to offer affordable healthcare than it is to offer a myriad of similar drug choices for their employees. I would bet a LOT of money that it won't be discussed nearly as much as you think in board rooms across America. Profit is king and plans that offer more cost more. You happen to know a lot about this subject, but most people making insurance decisions for corporations do not. Insurance companies have sales reps too. Do you think Express Scripts will say to potential customers "we love to limit choice". They are going to beat the "we control costs which makes you more money" drum. This whole issue centers on money...not what is good for the patient. Gilead refused to budge on cost which, objectively, was bad for the consumer because less people will now take a better drug. Express Scripts limited choice because of cost. The word "sick person" or "patient" is sadly missing in this conversation because they, to the major players, aren't the main objective. Do you disagree?
    Dec 23, 2014. 09:16 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Express Scripts/AbbVie HCV deal should not be surprising [View news story]
    Doyle,

    Patient complaints. How? People that are going to die will be offered a cure. The only difference is the daily regimen. People already taking Gilead products will continue on that regimen. Only new patients won't have a choice and they won't know the difference. You are giving people way too much credit. Most people are sheep. They go to the doctor and take the drug he /she writes. Once the doctor knows they have Express Scripts he won't even bother mentioning Gilead's drug. Doctor's offices are cattle calls. It is about getting as many patients out the door as possible. People forget that it is a business. This isn't me knocking doctors at all. They are reimbursed less and less while malpractice, employee, and office costs increase. They don't have the time, energy, or resources to battle insurance companies. They will write what is covered. I am not guessing about this. I have witnessed this for the past 15 years.

    Long GILD...just tired of all the rose colored arguments that have zero merit. No offense to anyone personally.
    Dec 23, 2014. 08:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Express Scripts/AbbVie HCV deal should not be surprising [View news story]
    We get it...you are a Abbvie pharma rep.
    Dec 23, 2014. 08:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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