The Fox

Gilead Sciences: Stock in Decline or Great Buying Opportunity?

A lot the catalysts you point to are one time events. Stockpiling Tamiflu will be a one quarter event, because as you noted, most countries were already stockpiled with the stuff. Swine flu was a media sensation, however, and large amounts of Tamiflu were not used. Investing in a company because it might win a patent dispute isn't a great idea either. Coin toss. Heads they win; tails they lose. I completely agree that it is a premiere company and that they are THE leading biotech. They aren't cheap on a valuation basis at 19x earnings (not overvalued either though).

The one thing you didn't discuss is the only thing that matters...politics. If Obama starts beating the "affordable drugs and healthcare" drum ALL these stocks are going lower. It is a certainty. I would agree that the stock looks compelling here, but you should do a better job of informing your readers about the downside risks. Cheerleading never helped anyone make money.