logicalthought

Antigenics: Why So Many Shorts?

Robert,

The issue is a lot more complicated (or maybe a lot simpler) than the design of the trial, because even with a perfectly designed pivotal trial, it's often impossible for ANYONE (much less, "the little guy") to predict efficacy, despite whatever "promising" results were seen in earlier-stage, lower powered trials. Sure, maybe you can use a poorly-designed trial as a basis for taking a short position, but you need a detailed knowledge of pharmacology (or hugely-powered P2 data) to have any prayer of forecasting the results of even a well-designed P3 trial.


On Sep 16 11:39 PM Robert0713 wrote:

> In the few short months I've been looking into BioTech, the answer
> is plainly simple: neither the MDs, Ph.Ds, CEOs, and Little Guys
> know diddly squat about how to design an experiment. That's why
> they get in over their heads in the first place. Then they get to
> the FDA, who has real math stats on staff and on consultancy, and
> get blown out of the water. VION is just the most recent example.
> A BA in stat would have blown holes in them.
>
> So, if the BioTechs did proper testing, and early on, they would
> throw out the losers. But, of course, they're invested (intellectually
> and emotionally, too) in this fancy new widget they're JUST SURE
> is a magic bullet. So, yes, a Little Guy, armed with a deep understanding
> of stats can make an intelligent decision. Sometimes that decision
> comes down to: "they don't have proper data". But that's OK.<br/>

Antigenics: Why So Many Shorts?

>>It's up to the little guys to do their due diligence and play the manipulation the best they can.<<

First of all, let me first state that I have no position (nor opinion on) AGEN, nor do I *ever* short small-cap biotech stocks, as doing so is far too dangerous. However, I've noticed a regular series of posts from you here on SA pumping these little companies, and thus I'm driven to speak out...

How are YOU (or the "little guy") going to do proper diligence on a biotechnology company vs. the hundreds of M.D. Ph.Ds out there analyzing these companies on behalf of large institutional investors and-- despite their in-depth pharmacological knowledge-- are STILL wrong most of the time! If a guy like you wants to trade these stocks off a chart or a news-driven short-squeeze of some sort, fine, but don't pretend that you really understand how these drugs work (or are supposed to work), because half the time, the smartest guys in the world don't.