Daneric40

Financials and TED Spread Could Signal a Bottom for Corporate Profit Declines

From an Elliott Wave perspective your chart 3 on TED spreads looks like a classic contracting triangle is occuring in the wave 4 position. The peaks are narrowing to the point where it is going to explode to the upside in a 5 wave move to new highs.

The financials are performing their ABC conditions after a nasty 5 wave down. They have another 5 wave down coming soon that will take them to new lows.

Your article expresses perfectly the sentimentality during wave corrections which we have been in since july 15th. Hopeful that a new bottom has set in.

How many times were the analysts telling us that in the crash in 2000 onward?

When this writer finally writes an article that states all hope is lost, then you know the bottom is in.

We obviously have a long way to go...

Preparing for the Fall

I agree with the author in that the market has had a false bull rally coming of its earlier lows and will indeed find a new but not until later this year. My prediction has always been that it will be in November of this year, 2008. I do predict a general malaise for the next few weeks and then in July, the market will reach a new low, but this low will not be the final one. Everyone will THINK its the new low and then some money will pour into the market and we'll have a mini-bull rally from August until Octoberish.

Then a new crash will occur because by then it will be apparent that inflation, the housing depreciation and high oil prices will have dug deeper into the economy more than anyone originally thought.

And we will all know that we will be in a recession (long and nasty) that will not recover until late 2009, early 2010.

And even then P/E ratios will continue to adjust downward and commodities will continue to rise until the year 2017. That will mark the end of the bear market that started in 2000. By then P/E ratios will be much lower and American society will have changed a bit.

Now am I supposed to stay in cash until the year 2017?

Or until November 2008? Which is it because I believe what I said will pan out to be correct.

There is always a bull market even in a bear market. Even when the market crashed 400 points, there WERE gainers.

So this article is a mixed bag. Whats an investor to do? What do you do with your 401K when the crappy index funds you have available all lose money over the long term?

When the SPX is LOWER in the year 2017 than it was in the year 2000, how are you supposed to build wealth?

You become a SMARTER investor. But yeah he is probably right, a lot of people will get hurt. Keep your 401K in the "stable valur fund and get that 3-4% steady every year is the best you can hope for.

Bankruptcy Reform Act Finally Blows Sky High

PS - The bankrupcty reform act was mainly lobbied by (for years), and intended for the credit card industry because of all the abuse they were taking. People would dump all there debt on CC's and then declare bankruptry knowing full well the CC's would get washed away. Its bullshit liberalism like i said. It ain't like my pop's generation where they took responsibility for their actions.

Bankruptcy Reform Act Finally Blows Sky High

Its a crap ruling. So now if I am a homeowner with some money problems I can expect to get it flushed down the toilet, scott free. I still believe in personal responsibility. Banks lend money and when they WERE being tightfisted about their loans everyone cried "FOUL"! (discrimination, etc.) Yeah, there are snakes at the financial institutions but hey when has this ever NOT been in the history of mankind?

The very act of taking out a loan incurs risk on both the lender and the borrower, however the lender certainly didn't put a gun to anyone's head. And the borrower typically lies and plays innocent thru the whole process knowing full well usually that they don't deserve the money (hence they lie).

But the borrower KNOWS the terms of the arrangement. They place TRUST in the bank that they will provide the money at the stated terms (which they do).

And if the bank does not lend the money, the same lying borrrowere will go on their local news and slam the bank. So after years of this crap, the banks said fine, you wnat the money, we'll give you the money, have fun.

This is all actually a product of modern liberalism. Liberals don't ever take responsibility and thats what this is too.

The ruling is crap, and ya know who suffers the most? Us responsible people. I'll have to pay for that lying bag o shit's chapter 7 mortage. Thanks Judge!

E*Trade: What the Analysts and News Haven't Told You

I predicted last Friday a "good news" announcement sandwiched between the Shareholder's meeting and the heavy trading on Monday that drove the stock down. Layton is skillfully playing their cards very skillfully.

The key to saving Etrade is managing the media like any other business would do with sharks all around. And it is a game. Layton has other tricks up his sleeve. I believe he can pull this off.

One good sign: They definately are not asleep at the wheel over there.


The other media announcement about changing their rules is just as imprtant: Directors can be, in effect, "fired" by the shareholders. That alone is worth a % or 2 in stock price.

E*Trade: What the Analysts and News Haven't Told You

Excellent work Cindy. Not sure though if the forces at hand working to bring down etrade can be entirely overcome.

The problem is customers/potential cutomers perception of the corporation. The stock price largely determines this perception. It is of course heavily manipulated.

And I do not trust Citadel. They care not one iota about the average shareholder or the business. They will of course go where they think they can make the most money out of the deal. If they think Etrade is terminally damaged and cutting them loose is the best option, they will do just that and there will be few if any "tea leaves" to read for that to happen. But please keep reading them!

That is the tremendous risk we longs take with this stock. Time is ticking and Team Layton knows it. They have done yeoman work to save ETrade and are betting on next quarter's financial #s to be "above expectations". Once that happens and more confidence is restored, then the price will climb and shorts will start to cover.

It all hinges on next quarter's numbers. Everyone understands that. Unfortunately Wall Street pricks like to set corporations like Etrade up for the fall and set unrealistic expectations and then watch the corporation fall short (like the first quarter). They are of course in cahoots with the heavy shorters and driving the train at the moment.

The core business is what will make or break Etrade. I love their platform and that is what I am gambling on. That and that baby commercial!

I see however a long, drawn out summer with this stock. I do see it heading to $3.59ish unless something just pops out that cannot be ignored (like unbelievable May numbers - which I do not think will happen). It will then crawl back toward $4+ in anticipation of the quarterly report. Then the report will come out and we will see which side will win in this game. And yes it is a game to these sharks.

It can break either way. If it heads bad, look for Citadel and the forces of evil to overcome and to pull the plug. If it heads good, look to make a LOT of $$$.

I say we have around a 50/50 chance right now of losing everything with this stock (and I'm not talking buyout parachute either - talking the big "B" word). Mainly that is because the economy is going to get toasted this summer (inflation) and stock market is going to crash to new lows that you haven't seen since a long time. That alone will bring Etrade down with it (and a lot of other companies to boot).

Beware of the summer of doom. The shorts and sharks are long on many a company right now and Wall Street is behind it all. Just understand this: If Wall Street can't make money on a bull market, you are seeing a viscouness never before seen with them making money on the bear market. And they have bet heavily on the bear market and The FED is in bed with them.

E*Trade Primed for a Breakout

One more thing I want to talk about:

Everybody loves a *Rocky* story. Etrade is slowly becoming just that. And expect ETRADE to take advantage of that perception in marketing thmselves to investors in the future.

They are getting buzz on the talking heads shows bceause it is a feel-good story. Don't underestimate this aspect.

I would never short Rocky Balboa as he picks himself off the canvas in the 15th round and throws some haymakers and wins in the end by TKO.

One more thing about CEO Layton. They recruited him from the board of directors and he had never intended to come out of retirement. But he did come out and they obviously gave him a free (and powerful) hand to do whatever is necessary to include canning all the old guard. He got the rest to buy into his leadership and he is like a god in that place at the moment. If he pulsl this thing off, it will be studied by Wall Street for decades to come.

Like I said, everyone loves a Rocky story. I bet CEO Layton does too.

E*Trade Primed for a Breakout

ETFC is not about to go bankrupt. The only thing that will make them go bankrupt is another run on their bank. But they already survived one run and I don't see another happening.

They fully realize that their stock price is the one thing they must protect. Not just because they all have personal stakes in it, but the stock price is what will help drive people either toward or away as customers.

The $2 mark was a panic low-water mark. You won't see that price again and as more time goes on the safer they are. Yes they are in debt, but they are fully aware and have revealed it more forthcoming than Citi or WM. They have a plan to pay it and as long as their online trading business grows at a decent pace, they will survive.

Their asset sales will not hurt their core business:online trading.

Look for a small profit next quarterly earnings report. They will beat expectations and then the price will take off and that is when the shorts will be burned. Management is working all this summer with that goal in mind.

And if they have another good monthly customer report that again beats expectations, you could see a panic occur earlier.

The CEO is an ex-JP Morgan guy and turning ETRADE back into what it was has been a holy-grail quest of his and he won't take failure as a result.

Gaining the approval of shareholders in the authorization of more stock is necessary step that has most likely been planned from back in the dark days. Remember, they must protect the price and perception of their stock so they have waited 6 months and a stabilization in stock price to announce it. ALso note that it was announced Friday after market and it was coupled with the announcement of them selling an Indian asset that will net them $millions.

Its all about managing the stock price and they had to eventually announce additional shares.

1. Insider buys 50K at $3.72
2. Quarterly report comes out and CEO is positive.
3. New trading center opens in Toronto (expansion)
4. April Monthly customer trades beats expectations.
4. Selling assets nets $Millions coupled with market closing annnouncement on a Friday about doubling shares.

That is smart management right there! They have planned and dribbled positive news and timed the potential negative news of the authorization of issuance of stock rather adroitly if you ask me.

Its impact will be negligble. The price will probably retreat back down to $4, but hey guess what, I am betting management has sandwiched more good news that will come out this week to come.

They are hitting all the right notes. Etrade will be a $10 stock by Christmas even as they will still carry a good bit of debt. Won't matter because the direction forward will be bright, and online trading is a growing business.