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User 195396

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  • Seadrill, North Atlantic Drilling, And Rosneft - A Long-Term View Of Perspectives In Russia [View article]
    Thanks for the update, Vladimir. To state the obvious, and as you correctly note, everything depends on the price of crude. Also, to state the obvious, the geopolitical situation needs to get sorted-to that end, Kiev does not seem to be doing too well and it is a risk that they will crank up military ops to drag everyone back in at expanded levels. The propaganda level here at the Ministry of Truth (State Dept) has subsided somewhat and perhaps the EU will realize that Crimea is a done deal and continuation of sanctions seems to be hurting them more than Russia IMHO.
    Apr 25, 2015. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Golden Long: Frost's Pershing Gold Poised For A Significant Upside Move [View article]
    Suggest you wait for Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA)-continue to check the web site to determine when it will be completed-do not bank on promises, wait for the PEA to see if the project is feasible IMHO.
    Apr 23, 2015. 11:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gazprom CEO to meet Greek PM amid reports of pipeline deal [View news story]
    Yep, absolutely no surprise. Throughout this mindless debacle of sanctions, I have wondered what it is that Brussels is trying to accomplish. Then I see the propaganda coming out of the US State Dept, the Ministry of Truth, and I begin to understand-it is the neocon playbook in spades. They have never worried about consequences and their track record is clear. I as an American despair that we will ever stop the war mongering coming out of the US foreign policy establishment, the "think" tanks, the media, the government. It certainly did not start with Obama and it will damn sure not stop if Hillary is elected-the neocons love her. Sorry, end of rant!
    Apr 20, 2015. 10:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pershing Gold's Progress Continues To Impress, But I'm Handcuffed By Valuation Uncertainties [View article]
    Sounds to me that you know more than jack about a lot of things-the school of hard knocks instills in one a lot of common sense and that will go a long way in most situations. For me, I'm still mildly curious and watching but would not touch it until the PEA's economics are out there.
    Apr 12, 2015. 06:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse offers seven stock picks among gold, copper miners [View news story]
    Actually, I'm ok with the reco on AEM but I agree that I would never follow CS on anything-in this case with AEM, IMHO, I think they got it right but prob just blind luck.
    Apr 12, 2015. 06:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: The Fundamental Bottom Is In [View article]
    Goldman and cramer are in another club and the average trader/investor ain't in it!
    Be wary!
    Apr 4, 2015. 01:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: The Fundamental Bottom Is In [View article]
    Agree completely! In this market, IMHO, betting on mgmt is key. Some other e & p's seem to have the rocks but manage to muck it up financially(not going into names but take a look at some that are down over 60-70%-heavy debt is a killer).

    This is not their first rodeo. Find the stalwarts and stay with them: PXD, EOG, CLR, ROSE etc. Don't play the recoveries in waiting (yet)-wait for a more stable market.
    Apr 4, 2015. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: The Fundamental Bottom Is In [View article]
    FM, disregard earlier questions-still looking for historical charts, however, which chart contango trends for contracts out 12 months vs crude price.
    Apr 2, 2015. 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: The Fundamental Bottom Is In [View article]
    FM, I've noted a couple of comments on other sites that the contango is decreasing, similar to the end of 2008-have you watched the contango, is it true, and do you place much significance in the trend of contango?

    I have been unable to find historical charts of crude prices vs contango or backwardation-any suggestions would be welcomed-have current contango.

    Thanks much-excellent series of articles-much substance for thought.
    Apr 2, 2015. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EIA Petroleum Inventories [View news story]
    Just saw a historical crude contango chart which indicated that contango is coming down=interpretation is bullish, similar to end of 2008. (do not have access to post here).
    Apr 1, 2015. 01:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EIA Petroleum Inventories [View news story]
    Anyone suggest a source/site for crude contango charts?

    Thanks.
    Apr 1, 2015. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Chairman Thornton got 36% raise in 2014 [View news story]
    But, but, Thornton is from Goldman-I guess that explains it all.
    Mar 29, 2015. 12:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • USO Calendar Spreads ... An Update [View instapost]
    Thanks again, Reel-still studying.
    Mar 16, 2015. 12:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • USO Calendar Spreads ... An Update [View instapost]
    Reel:

    I very much appreciate your comments and explanations! I would also be interested in your strategy on the SPY, SPX. Your comments have certainly caused me to study further, analyze, and just sit and think.

    I have a couple of questions: How did you choose your strike prices for USO? It appears that these strikes were ATM at the time of the initial trade.
    On strangles, I have tried to use 1 Standard Deviation but have had problems in recent volatile situations keeping the positions adjusted with delta neutral.

    As I understand, you have the following:
    Long Jan 17 calls @$17, currently $3.25/3.55
    Short Jan 17 calls @$27, currently $0.90/1.18

    For the coming week, sell mar4 call @$18 for $0.21/0.22

    Long LEAP 17 call: delta 0.60, theta 0.00
    Short LEAP 27 call: delta 0.25, theta 0.00

    weeklies: delta 0.24, theta 0.02

    From current data, seems no theta decay on LEAPs.

    The main question I have is on the trading vehicle itself, does the contango effect cause the Long LEAP to lose value independent of the market action?

    It seems your strategy is independent of any probability/delta factors from volatility-correct?

    Would appreciate any comments you have because, as I said, your thesis and resultant strategy certainly has caused me to do some additional work.

    Thanks much.
    Mar 14, 2015. 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Golden Long: Frost's Pershing Gold Poised For A Significant Upside Move [View article]
    I'll wait until the hype dies down and the PEa comes out-we still do not have an reliable number for all-in costs and capex to production.
    Feb 11, 2015. 02:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
389 Comments
275 Likes