isaac the terrible

Game Changing Battery Technology: Is it Here Now?

There is an awful lot of wishful thinking here. Sometimes wishes come true. We can hope, but to base your investments on hopeful thinking usually doesn't work out.
Davem- I'd love these projections to be true, but I sense you are looking at this issue with an idealistic sense of optimism that will allow you to believe that we "have afree lunch " here.
I hope we get a free lunch too.

Game Changing Battery Technology: Is it Here Now?

Davewmart-
Good points, but so often we've heard experts get their projections wrong in big ways. And I've seen numerous cases where scientific studies have been conducted in ways which are designed to favor the conclusion that the author has favored- which is poor science but nonetheless gets published. So, you'll have to pardon my scepticism- it has been well earned.
My main point is that great energy storage alone is not going to cut it, when it comes to the nation electrifying the transportation in a big way. Maybe at the margins, but that won't be enough to offset the loss of affordable oil.
Cheers.

Game Changing Battery Technology: Is it Here Now?

Davewmart- I've seen several of those claims before- that we can accomodate electrification of transportation without too much strain on our electrical poroduction capacity. But that notion doesn't pass the smell test to me. It just doesn't make intuitive sense.
Just picture all the vehicles going down a highway or main arterail near you, and picture all the enrgy it takes to move that mass. Its gotta take alot more elctricity than we currently are putting out there. Its just common sense, don't you think.
If we don't come up with alternatives for oil, like reasonably priced electricity, than we are going to have a very hard time keeping our GDP anywhere close to its current level, I fear.

Game Changing Battery Technology: Is it Here Now?

Jim,
I'm really curious how a energy storage device like EEstors ultracapacitor/battery could result in a decrease in energy demand. Some sort of fuel source will be needed to charge a battery, or supply a fuel cell for that matter. So why would oil demand be offset? If the answer is electrification of transportation- then we better start really beefing up our generating capacity. It will take alot of electrons flowing through the grid to offset the loss of lets say 5 millions barrels of oil a day here in the USA.
I look forward to your perspective on this. Thanks.

Best Investments for Rising Oil

Look at the ETF OIH to capture the oil service sector. Best way to get exposure to this sector.

Are We out of the Deflation Woods Yet?

Thanks for the excellent description of these choppy waters. Anyone who claims to see these trends clearly is merely ignoring aspects that they find difficult to integrate into a simplified vision.
I'd have to disagree that raising taxes would be a solution to our deficits/debts. It would be nothing more than a bandaid that would just slow us down. We really do have to become slimmer. We are like a fat kid who thinks another donut will help him run faster. The country would do better with incentives rather than penalties.
Anyway, thanks for the fuel for thought.

Oil ETFs: Texas Tea or Empty Well?

OIH is a good "oil" proxy, but you get to invest inreal companies, with good liquidity.

Iraq Production, Conservation Could Keep Oil Price in Check for Years

We should all be praying for the emergence of global oil shortages, because there is only one scenario in which demand won't outstrip supply within 3-5 years. That scenario is a prolonged global depression, and everyone loses in that scenario, except cementary and prison services.

Hurricane Damage Impacts Oil Price

Heres a thought chain-
The rise in oil prices this past year was, in effect, a big tax on individuals and companies. This massive oil bill contributed to putting the fragile credit/financial system here in the US over the edge, by bringing a halt to the kind of rapid psuedo-growth (housing market) that we had come to depend on. If this oil price contribution to slower economic growth was indeed significant, then one could make the case that this current financial scenario is an early warning shot about the effect of peak oil on global economic stability.
As oil lurchs upwards once demand picks back up, fragile economies will suffer mightly. This will again whittle away at demand, atleast temporarily. And thus we will see a very rocky path for oil prices, likely overshooting on both the upside and downside.
In effect, perhaps this all points to fact that we have reached peak oil- that is peak 'affordable' oil. The global economy may not be able to spend enough money on oil to produce and consume more than 86 million barrels a day, even if we have not reached the geologic peak.
Jim, do you think this makes sense? I still think the price will escalate even with blunted demand, if only due to a gradually eroding dollar.

Why It's Going to Be a Long Recession

Our lack of discipline(spending above our means with low savings rate), and our rewards for extreme risk takers (huge salaries/bonuses/stock options/ government bailouts) leaves us fragile. In addition to an aggressive, multifaceted, full-court press energy policy, we need to acknowlegde the need to cut government entitlements. That means deep rationing of medical services (I speak with some inside knowledge here as a physician), and meaningful cuts to social security. Will Obama have the fortitude to veto spending, or even the intention?

Slow Start for Lithium-ion Hybrids

Hey Mayascribe,
The blogger that you bash is in fact a very thoughtful commentator. He has been recommending SQM for a long ride up to its recent top. I suggest you go to his site and read more of his thoughts- take what you like and discard what you don't. I find his comments to be thought provoking, and I keep in mind that "predictions are hard to make- especially about the future".