DrT

Why Are Natural Gas Producers Expanding Production So Aggressively?

Good article but it left out another important factor; the impact of hedging. Big producers like Chesapeake and Encana have locked in big cash flows with hedging and are continuing to drill because they can. In previous cycles the cash flow squeeze would have forced them to stop drilling.

'Net-Zero' Gasoline Tax Unlikely to Have Intended Consequences

Seems like a tedious argument to deny the obvious. The rest of the industrialized world has higher gasoline taxes, less SUV's per person, and is leading the US in fuel efficient technology. The cost of oil does not reflect the true cost to the world in terms of depletable resources, pollution, carbon emissions, foreign trade imbalance, etc.
P.S. I invest heavily in oil/gas stocks because I don't expect this to change.

Petro-Canada / Suncor Merge Offers Interesting Arbitrage Play

Good article. There are way too many political interests aligned here in Canada for this deal for it to not go through. Plus Petrocanada finally get to shed their awful management. One of the rare true win-win mergers. You could even get more aggressive and go long Petrocanada and short Suncor.

Guru Bargains: Janus Capital, Nabors Industries, Sears Holdings and EnCana

Anybody that writes "formally" when they mean "formerly" needs more sticktoitiveness.


On Feb 13 12:16 PM sticktoitiveness wrote:

> pony2282
>
> I have been there. In the last 2 years the local kmart & sears
> have actually improved remarkably. The Kmart has changed its product
> mix & kmart & sears are seeing more traffic. My local kmart
> is also seeing a demographic change, formally I was the only relatively
> young person when I entered the store. This has changed. Over the
> last year more midlife couples were there, and in my last visit,
> in December of last year I even saw a set of teenage girls.
>
> Maybe you should set foot in a store more than once every twenty
> years.

Watch for Yourself: 60 Minutes Oil Story Was Spot On

Speculators can't drive the price up and hold it up if supply/demand isn't tight. An artificially high price will swamp the markets with product and quickly! When the Hunts tried to corner the silver market the market was swamped with silver coming out of safe deposit boxes. It took economic collapse to tip the balance to lower oil prices.

$60 a Barrel Oil in 2009?

Oil wells deplete, even OPEC's. The price eventually has to go to the marginal cost of new production plus a risk profit margin. The day the world economy shows signs of recovery you would not want to be short oil. All the cancelled projects and drilling will come back to haunt the economy.

Growth in U.S. Natural Gas Production Expected to Reverse

all true but nothing new.

Oil Won't Stay Down for Long

Is it possible everybody is a little bit right? Sure speculation pushed the price beyond fundamentals but they can only do that when supply/demand balance is tight and the demand inelastic. You can't quadruple the price of orange juice, people won't buy it.

Maxwell's Oil Analysis

Using electricity "off-peak" saves on capital cost of infrastructure but if the electricity is produced by NG, coal, etc. there is still a significant cost per kw. True savings comes from keeping the rise in price/kw from rising too fast (flat prices are too much to hope for).

Options Trader: Friday Outlook

While the ostriches deny permanent high oil prices, the necessary changes won't start to take place.

NBC Refuses Pickens Plan Ad

You get the leaders you elect! Unfortunately you can fool most of the people most of the time.

False Data Clobbers the Markets

I don't know what is more discouraging; that this guy keeps publishing clueless articles or the nutbars that rally around him. I'm glad ozzy is around to rebut with intelligent researched information. But still.....

Where Does Oil Go from Here?

Anybody heard of a bell curve? Whatever the average income is there are a certain proportion well above the average. If the average rises then the number that can afford luxuries rises as well. Has nobody seen the pictures of packed roadways in China? Well the oil bears can hold their hopes. I made good money off them today.

Will Global Events Keep Oil Above $100?

Good article! I like oil here but am much more negative on nat gas. The higher production coming is starting to show in the storage. Today's rally is an opportunity to get out.

Q4 Oil Price Targets

I think Jason jumped out a window after today's price action.