paulmars

Are These Seven Defensive Blue-Chips Finally a Good Buy?

Colgate, IMHO, is the best of the defensive stocks. Hardly any generic substitutes available(WalMart, for instance, tried and then pulled the plug on a store brand version years ago).
One of the less expensive 'per-use' product that you can think of and people will hardly think to cut back or switch brands on a tube of $3 toothpaste. And, they have 40% global market share and have been all around the globe for decades - they're well-entrenched in markets like China and India, where most companies are just getting their feet wet.
80% of their sales and earnings come from outside the U.S.
A true global franchise. Better than Coke, in that they sell a product that is an upgrade for health for many emerging citizens of the world, versus expense per-serving, unhealthy sugar water.

Finally, in past recessions, Colgate stock has traded at high p/e(20x-30x),once investors started crowding into the stock for flight to safety reasons. These kinds of stocks are truly a rare breed.

Short Thesis Still Intact at FirstFed

FED is (another) dead man walking.
The article today, with the follow-on comment from exec Goddard, is a tell. They are desperate to blame their problems on the "shorts", as if the shorts devised and executed this high-wire business plan.
Goddard and his partners are afraid that no one will hire their sorry asses after this hits the fan, and are in full
'Bagdad Bob' mode now.

Wells Fargo: The Good, the (Not Too) Bad and the Ugly

>>Well managed. John Stumpf, the CEO, resisted the temptation of easy money when he chose to stay away from the exploding sub-prime and alt-a markets.<<

You better go do more DD and quit believing what they would have you believe on both subprime and particularly ALT-A.
Start here:
www.youtube.com/watch?...

Wells Fargo CEO Stumpf Addresses Company's Charge Offs

Wells Fargo is at ground zero of the consumer and mortgage crisis, with 10x leverage in all kinds of now very risky loans that they would not make today and would love to take back.
The odds are this stock will be under pressure for years to come, as they have to continue to do and song and dance to explain everything away, like he is stooping to do on Cramer's tawdry show.
What's the upside in this stock versus the downside, given a short to intermediate time horizon?
Not good. Buffett's halo is slipping...

Homebuilder Bankruptcies: Who Might Be Next?

Trumpace wrote:>>But when someone names a name of a company, one better have ones ducks in order and know what one is talking about, or face that company taking one to court if one causes harm.<<

More censorship of opinions by those who have lost their asses and now want to take it out on those that are smarter than they were!
F**K you!

Five Great Companies to Buy at a Drop

Haven't they already corrected?
And, in CL's case, they have minimal impact from commodity inflation(see today's excellent quarterly report). If you do your homework property you'll see that CL's p/e rises during hard times, as money managers et al seek safe haven and recession-immune stocks like this are in great demand. Add to that the fact that CL is one of the best of the global growth plays around, having already established over more than a couple of decades a 40% worldwide market share(vs. just planning to do so, like many global wannabes).
And, their products are healthful(unlike Coke) and emerging citizens around the globe can easily afford upgrading to their oral health care brand, as the "per use" price is miniscule(a couple of bottles of Coke cost more than a tube of toothpaste).

Colgate is THE recession play that investors should be going into now, at currently depressed prices (stock was $82 last autumn). Going to $100 within 2 years ($4.50 x22 p/e).

Wells Fargo: Bright Star in the Financial Universe?

Smoke and mirrors and Buffett halo keep this levitated, for now. The recession will catch up to all those hundreds of billions of consumer loans, mostly written at the top of the boom, and mostly all recession-sensitive.
They may be among the last to fall, but fall they will.
They are leveraged 10-to-1 going into a recession/depression, and that ain't good, even grading on the curve.

Wachovia: The Big Tell?

Oops..so much for "almost in the green".

A buyout is all the will save this from melting like the Wicked Witch...
And, likely, that would be a takeunder.
Don't understand the knife catching instinct in such unprecedented times.
Haven't you all learned yet?

Is Steve Jobs Sick Again, or Just Thin?

I want to add, of course, that I hope there is nothing wrong with Steve. He is one of my heroes.

Is Steve Jobs Sick Again, or Just Thin?

I can't believe how la-la land some of you are. C'mon, the guy has been a vegan for years, and never looked like this before.
Stress? He never had that before?
He had cancer just a few years ago, a very lethal variety.
That his appearance now is so changed and resembles someone very sick, is highly relevant and in bounds.

Stop the bashing and lame denial and deal with the real concern. If you own the stock, you'd be stupid to whistle past the graveyard, so to speak, on this topic.
After all, Apple without Job back a decade ago, didn't do so hot, did it?

9 Reasons to Short FirstFed Financial

Dream on, silk...!
Trading under a phantom book value is not 'undervalued'. Buying it based on phantom book value ratios is unsophisticated 'fool's gold' mining. Same stupid 'investment' strategy that has killed many wannabe Buffetts over the past couple of years, as the financials are reaping the consequences of their risky, greedy actions.

The "Texas Ratio" and FirstFed Financial

FED is dead.
Rode it all the way down from the $50s...puts are still a good buy for the final descent.

Wells Fargo Downgraded: Oppenheimer's Whitney Goes Too Far

I meant Page 55 of the PDF...

Wells Fargo Downgraded: Oppenheimer's Whitney Goes Too Far

https://wellsfargo.com/downloa...

Page 35 shows home equity exposure by State. Texas is way down the list, not 2nd, as the above poster amtbnkanalyst claims.
So much for his credibility.

>>Additionally, their 2nd larget market, Texas, is not experiencing home equity lending problems due to conservative underwriting guidelines dictated by state laws.<<

Doug Kass's Killer Shorts - Barron's

Buffett has drifted. Call it whatever fancy name you want.
How is his new style of investing any different from hundreds of other money managers, who like to buy good businesses at fair valuations? Most of his stalwart bluechip picks of gone mostly sideways for years, so, how has he added all this value?
Sure, his Berkshire businesses have performed well, run, of course, by other people. So, he's a good hands-off delegator. But as far as the investing in common stocks goes, either him or Lou Simpson have not exactly outperformed much of the pack in recent decades.
Buffett says it's because the numbers are now too big.
Well, may be, but, maybe he should figure out a way to split things into smaller pieces that could outperform.
I mean, since when did conglomorations ever really prove to be a great vehicle for producing outstanding results?
He's nothing but another Henry Singleton in many respects.
Dexter Shoes? Wells Fargo (King of Home equity 2nd mortgages and other regretful consumer loans in California and other the other former bubble states?) Geez, how uninspired is that?