rockymtnway

Countdown of Manipulated Gold Price Running Out

Gold is an excellent hedge against inflation, but right now it appears we're in for a period of stagnation or even deflation (housing prices dropping, oil prices dropping, food prices likely to begin going down soon). As a result, gold isn't likely to do much, imho, as there's not a dramatic increase in unsupported money supply.

While I'm pretty old school and believe that every portfolio should contain some dividend yielding gold stocks, I wouldn't go crazy and overweight in the stuff. While the current prices are attractive because of the improving dividend yields, as demand drops because of the slowing global economy, profits will suffer. Remember that a company like Barrick still spends $450/oz. to mine it and they're hedged with futures contracts to protect that margin. A lot of their sales are at prices fixed last year. That puts a cap on their potential profits and losses. Unless gold stays over $800 in the long run, profits will stay fixed or decline.

Nowhere to Turn: This Bear's Different

Gold might hold some value if inflation was the issue, but the problem is that now, with oil prices dropping below $100/bbl, the key factor in recent price increases is gone. So gold is losing its luster as a hedge in this market, that's why Barrick took a 5% hit yesterday and has been falling steadily for the last month.

Steel depends on manufacturing be business as usual, which it's not. Without demand, steel has been historically fickle. While their costs are down with the price of coal falling recently, if there's no demand, there's no profits.

This is uncharted territory, my friends. I think the only thing to do right now is hold onto what you've got if you're already at a loss and assume you won't be right-side up for 3-4 years. This is no time to be bargain hunting and it's pointless to sell at a loss unless you made the mistake of buying into WaMu last week. If you are lucky, your portfolio contains at least a few dividend yielding stocks and that will at least give your portfolio some growth if you're set up to DRIP. Frankly, I think my money is safer in dividend yeilding stocks right now than in a bank.