Market Speculator

Enormous Downside Risk for Stocks

Naufal...I see you are still negative on the market. AAPL is slightly extended here making a new high on light volume, but looking at the weekly chart it is nothing but bullish. BIDU GOOG all very bullish and are big stock leadership.

Looking back at periods were the NASDAQ has made double digit consecutive positive days you see the index pause then move another 3-5% then correct back to roughly the 7-9th day of the consecutive day move...then base, then a big move higher.

There are other big boy LFT TNDM are setting up and Chinese Gamers NTES PWRD are leading this market.

Best of luck to you

Profiting From Bernanke's Super-Fed and Obama's Newer Deal

I am not so sure Banks will be lending soon, or at the same velocity they did before. Next, we'll see credit card write-downs....bad debt on the books is large as more and more lose their jobs they will be defaulting on credit card debt.

Do not own the gold ETF if you want to be long gold, get bullion.

Profiting From Bernanke's Super-Fed and Obama's Newer Deal

We have yet to see the $2 trillion to be lent out...a lot of it went to support banks reserve requirements where it can't be lent.

I agree with you, we are goign to see inflation but the wheels on this thing are moving slowly...it takes time to gain momentum.

Profiting From Bernanke's Super-Fed and Obama's Newer Deal

Naufal

do not forget that you need a contraction in the supply of goods to inflation...hyperinfla... is when confidence is lost.

At the moment, i know of no supply shortages...the reason we did not see inflation in the 40s after the two failed New deals was simply due to WWII. The dollar was in demand as well as us made goods (weapons, ammo, and food).

Profiting From Bernanke's Super-Fed and Obama's Newer Deal

Good job Naufal.

I think it takes time for gold to reach 2,000...not the end of the year. It will be a slow moving process. As for 10,000 the only way it reaches those heights is if we have a loss of confidence in the dollar. In effect, it would pretty much collapse every economy around the world as we are the world's reserve currency.