ChrisGriffith

ChrisGriffith
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  • Magellan Health: Facing Not So Healthy Headwinds  [View article]
    Do you see value here as an acquisition target? They could spin off the PBM or SBM business as well
    Jan 6, 2016. 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Possible Shutdown, Yellen And Volatility  [View article]
    Big drops like yesterday are the times you hope for to buy long $XIV positions. I'm either happy when the market goes up because $XIV makes money, or happy for big drops so I can buy more of it. Bring it on China
    Jan 5, 2016. 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How UVXY And SVXY Would Have Reacted In 2008 And 2011  [View article]
    Shorting is tough with UVXY because it is unlikely your broker will have a meaningful enough number of shares available to short. I've never been able to get any and stopped trying. Also based on how these ETNs may spike quickly in a short period of time, you may get your position closed out on you, only to find UVXY continuing to go lower afterwards (and ultimately making your thesis correct, but still having been forced to take losses)
    Jan 5, 2016. 10:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Navios Maritime Acquisition Remains Incredibly Cheap  [View article]
    Any thoughts on NNA recently J? Seems to be significantly underperforming $Fro
    Dec 21, 2015. 03:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Possible Shutdown, Yellen And Volatility  [View article]
    Ok sounds good. Wasn't sure if the risk/reward would be there for something that far OTM but congrats on the trade!
    Dec 14, 2015. 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Possible Shutdown, Yellen And Volatility  [View article]
    Do you sell $UVXY calls naked? I feel like that could definitely over-expose you. Don't want to see you starting a crowdfunding campaign for $100k in trading losses like the guy who shorted $KBIO lol
    Dec 14, 2015. 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eros: Revising Our TopCo Analysis  [View article]
    Just waiting for the next bash piece by AE so that I can find some more good buying opportunities. In the green on EROS so far
    Nov 23, 2015. 10:42 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eros: Is The Game Finally Over? We Think So  [View article]
    The real question: is Boxman22 just Alpha Exposure in disguise?
    Nov 18, 2015. 08:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Santa Claus Bring Volatility?  [View article]
    Dad, make sure you have a good understanding of how UVXY is priced. The actual $ value of UVXY is irrelevant as over time it will continue to drop into the single digits, at which point they will conduct a reverse split, rinse and repeat. Make sure you're taking into account contango and the level of the VIX in addition to your current metrics.
    Nov 14, 2015. 02:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eros: Is The Game Finally Over? We Think So  [View article]
    That's the whole point - he's able to find stocks that have low volume or high % of retail investors and scare people into selling the stock and profiting his short thesis. I'm sure he personally does very well as all of his articles support positions he already holds and thus the fear mongering results in substantial profits for him
    Nov 14, 2015. 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eros: Is The Game Finally Over? We Think So  [View article]
    If you guys hadn't followed this account before, "alpha exposure" only writes bogus short articles in companies they are already short, to drive down the price and generate personal profits at the expense of actual investors. Somehow seekingalpha doesn't do anything about this
    Nov 13, 2015. 03:11 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Santa Claus Bring Volatility?  [View article]
    Nathan,
    Wouldn't the fact that a rate hike is likely priced-in more than likely make the Fed meeting more of a non-event, which would be better for a short-volatility thesis? I agree that the Gov't shutdown is a great entry point for an XIV trade, but the fed meeting thesis seems a bit weak. Any additional thoughts from you on that front would be great. Thanks
    Nov 13, 2015. 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VXX Benefiting From Backwardation, For Now  [View article]
    Shishir - remember the XIV will gain in contango environments and isn't determined based on spot VIX. The main consideration if you think VIX is getting low is if you think the market is complacent and a pullback is imminent. Absent that, I would avoid exiting your position "too early" but that will depend on your risk tolerance and investment strategy. I am in the same situation as you and am planning to hold, although I may reduce some of my position and take gains. Typically I hold a core XIV position and add to that or sell some of it based on market conditions
    Oct 12, 2015. 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Ride The Roller Coaster, Bet On It  [View article]
    Totally disagree with making a recommendation to buy incredibly risky securities to people who don't understand how VIX-based ETFs/ETNs are priced and calculated. Buying today COULD result in gains if the Fed raises rates tomorrow, but it could also result in a 1-day loss of 20%+. I think its irresponsible to recommend complex instruments with a high degree of failure. Tell them to go bet on roulette instead because they have a better chance that way than volatility-based products, especially TVIX, which has had severe tracking problems in the past (over and above the traditional tracking error that is seen in all of these products)
    Sep 16, 2015. 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VXX Benefiting From Backwardation, For Now  [View article]
    Nathan,
    Do you look at buying VIX puts at all to avoid the whole backwardation/contango argument and just make a bet on whether or not VIX will end up lower in a few months? I find that looking to February VIX Puts at $20 seem to be a pretty attractive way to play short volatility.
    Sep 12, 2015. 10:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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