cyberclark's Comments

Bond Market Outlook: Hard Pressed to Find Attractive Opportunities

Mon, 07 Dec 2009 15:02:01 -0500

Alberta is selling bonds to pay for power lines. The rates offered are 4% over 5 years.

Smart-Grid Technology Is an Investment Worthy of Stimulus Funding

Wed, 07 Oct 2009 12:16:52 -0400

The smart grid commentary is made of up fact coupled with relative descriptions. Such descriptions are "controlling costs by moving usage away from peak power times"

I envisage a graph with a peak showing at peak power. This graph coupled with revenue intake by the power companies is where they are now working.

Consider if a power peak is flattened left and right, mellowed so to speak. The gross revenues would remain the same if the costs were constant.

I see smart grids as being the way of the future, if we can afford them.

Business Trends: Canadian Healthcare, Medical Foods, Opaque Banking, FHA and Biotech

Wed, 23 Sep 2009 16:59:08 -0400

Canadian Health is on the verge of a major upheaval. Alberta some weeks ago announced it would open the Canada Health Act to accommodate changes Alberta wants to make in delisting services in this province.

Canada Health Act is a Federal jurisdiction and any changes to it will affect all Canadians not just Alberta.

None of the other Provinces jumped on this nor did any of the political parties which leads me to believe the agreement to open and change this act happened at the last Ministers meetings.

Alberta has a large list of degregulated services made up by their Capital Health Authority which was distributed to all provinces.

Delisted services will end up in the realm of private insurance companies, probably with head offices in the US.

Alberta has hired the man responsible for the privitzation of Australia's health care. Queensland say he was "good at building bridges" which means "brough in US health to Australia"

Canadians as usual are asleep at the switch and giving their provincial governments a free reign.

I personally do not want the Conservatives to deal my health care nor NAFTA.

Amgen Is a Healthy Buy - Barron's

Sun, 06 Sep 2009 12:46:37 -0400

I will use Healthy as a segway into this important subject:

The Alberta Conservatives are well on their way to changing the Canada Health Act into a guideline rather than a law. When this is done anything can be changed. Their program is not about de-listing services; it is about doing away with the Canada Health Act as we know it which will affect every province in the country as a whole and, Stephen Harper is on side!

Health care has been the Conservative holy grail of privatization for many years.

Alberta has legislation in place to allow US Health Care Companies to sell insurance in Alberta and the Alberta Capital Health Authority made a long list of what to de-list from health services (and hand off to the private sector)

Mr. Duckett was hired In Alberta from Queensland Australia where he was instrumental in bringing the US health coverage companies into Australia. This was called "building partnerships".

The word from Australia is do not let them in; your state coverage is greatly reduced and more expensive and, you cannot get rid of them!

The Canada Health Act must be changed by the Federal Government to enable this. The present course is to change the Canada Health Act into a guide line for provinces away from a law which must be followed.

If the Conservatives are sitting (between October and December of this year) the Canada Health Act will be changed dramatically by the Conservatives and public health care as you know it will disappear!

My guess is you will have a change of Government in Canada.

Another Natural Gas Bull Sticks His Neck Out

Fri, 04 Sep 2009 11:02:22 -0400

With Russia the biggest player in Natural gas; the ones who will ultimately shape the market value I would say a settling of about 2.00 is where we are headed. No science or special insights.

Russia is building new lines with China. Indonesia has huge reserves they are plugging into tankers. It is cheaper to take gas off a tanker in NY than build a pipeline.

A bit of a navel gaze; Natural gas has tanked and it will stay that way for some time to come; long term

It is to be noted the spread in BTU between Natural Gas and coal makes natural gas at 2 to 3.00 a win. ENMAX - (The City of Calgary) is building a new natural gas fueled generation facility and, they are sitting in the middle of a coal field.

No one can survive at 1.00. 2.00 and 3.00 is operationally doable.

Canadian Oil Sands Stocks: A Long Term Hedge on Oil Prices

Tue, 25 Aug 2009 11:52:51 -0400

The environmental "problems" of tar sands are not in my view weighed properly.

The bitumen is mixed with High Vapor Base (gasoline base) to make it into a slurry for movement down the line. The finished product is that; finished. It takes much less "refining" to get the cuts of of the crude that is required at the time.

Hence, lower refining and carbon outlays in Texas or Oklahoma.

While the fight is on in the north the rush for carbon credit is on in the south.

Energy Trend Setters: Canadian Income and Small Cap Stocks

Thu, 20 Aug 2009 10:34:18 -0400

COS.UN and SU (Suncore) remain the most undervalued stock on the market. All physical indicators are; both are going to fly. Suncore is stepping up its output while Esso is looking again at its nearly 40,000 bbl per day of fresh production which will go to Suncore.

As far as taxes are concerned I am prepared to pay my share. Income Trusts were a nonsense deal put in by previous Governments. If this one had not put them in the tax mix, the next Government surly would.

Cap-and-Trade: The Only Alternative to EPA's Power Grab?

Mon, 17 Aug 2009 18:06:08 -0400

I think cap and trade is little more than a farce allowing companies to move money around and avoid taxes!

Consider most of the captured CO2 now is going down hole to act as a solvent to get otherwise hard to obtain crude out of the strata. Most of this same carbon dioxide comes back to the surface again saturated into the oil to be released when the pressure is off or, it comes up ahead of the oil.

In Weyburn Sask where they are using the carbon captured in North Dakota, it is reported the sound of the carbon dioxide escaping is like a jet plane taking off and it persists for hours on end!

There are plans to inject it into the lower toxic water aquifers which to my mind is a good plan and one we should support.

However I do not see taxpayers funding the oil patch for their solvents!

Being seen as doing something will not cut it!

Oh Canada: Top 15 Oil Exporting Countries to the U.S.

Sun, 09 Aug 2009 12:12:16 -0400

All is not what it appears to be. Canadian Oil and Oil Exploration was almost totally owned by US companies since it's inception years ago.

The maligned National Energy Program was a good even great design for its time. What was it to do?

1. Increase Canadian content in the oil industry by giving incentives to Canadian companies.
2. Keep the price of oil bellow the world price to protect consumers.
3. Tax oil exports to increase the federal share of the profits.

While this was in effect, Canadian Ownership moved from a very low 25% to 50% in the space of 3 years.

Most of the existing companies are traded on the US markets with the equities being held by US interests.

It is hard to think of Canada as being separate when the mechanics are viewed. In keeping with the subject some 80% of the worlds oil supplies are nationalized. Canada is a great exception.

What Are Diesel Inventories Telling Us?

Wed, 22 Jul 2009 15:07:26 -0400

Speculation has driven the oil industry for its entirety. I think Obama is releasing healthy surplus figures into the mix to control speculation.

Good or bad? I don't know.

The Oil Sands: Profiting from a Misunderstood Patch in the Oil Complex

Wed, 08 Jul 2009 14:26:18 -0400

Wow!
I agree with the author that COS.UN OR COSWF.PK and SU (suncore) are probably the most undervalued stock in the market today. It won't take 100.00 to bring the profits up.

Alberta charges these guys the lowest royalty rates in the world! For instance their bench mark of 19% Canadian$ flies in the face of 30.00 US royalty taken by either Saskatchewan or BC. Or for that matter the 19% US taken in the Montana basin.

Alberta is effectively paying these companies to take the resource away! How can that not be the best deal on the board??

As for the dam ducks and National Geographic; the ducks got more press than Obama while most are killed off by lead shot and wind farms which the "greens" don't want to talk about;National Geographic is sensational yes but factual, far from it.

Today in Commodities: Thursday, July 2

Sun, 05 Jul 2009 14:17:37 -0400

There is no other industry output at this time in Canada except Oil and Electricity!

Coal gasification has a future yes but the amount of capital to install it is almost out of reach and the time to build is nearly as extensive as the pyramids!

Carbon trade is a risk like no other. There is no product, no central controls. If the carbon was being sequestered it may be a banking item but it is not. Carbon is being used to enhance oil recovery and news out now that it may also be used in cleaning nuclear waste. Point is, it is going nowhere but back into the air.

U.S. Energy Policy Deters Investors

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 12:57:45 -0400

On natural gas: There are new docking of LNG (liquid natural gas) on the east shore of the US. This is huge and understated. LNG tankers can lay into any coastal port. In doing so they will render some pipelines obsolete!

There is a vast cheap source of natural gas in Indonesia on its way to the US and probably Canada. Russia is looking for new customers since the European community has started to wean them off in favor of China.

Gas is going nowhere on the midterm. It has tanked and will get worse.

Canada's Free Trade Deal: Employment and Oil Productivity

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 12:51:04 -0400

Excellent article. On the plus side the Trans Canada second pipeline Keystone is under way. That will allow shipping twice the amount of crude south as is the present. COS.UN (Canadian Version of COSWF.PK) is one of the greatest undervalued stocks on the market along with SU (Suncor). Both will skyrocket on the short term.

On the negative side, The Conservatives are building on programs set up and maintained by the Liberals over time. The Conservatives managed to burn through the Liberal sizable surplus in the first months of being in office. Now, they are positioned to sell off a broad catalogue of crown assets at fire sale prices. In there world there should be no crown assets.

Friday Options Update: CAL, POT, EEM, RMBS, NVDA, FXI

Sat, 13 Jun 2009 16:17:42 -0400

Yup! I unloaded all my POT on Friday.

Canadian Oil Sands Offers Long-Life, Clean Energy

Tue, 05 May 2009 11:45:52 -0400

There were millions perhaps billions of ducks wounded by lead shot that died in the bush uncounted. The wind farms collect all kinds of bird traffic. The few ducks in the tailing ponds got more press than Obama!

Water catches a huge amount of headlines too. The writers choose to overlook the majority water taken from the non potable saline aquifers (poison water not fit for consumption) and used in the process instead of fresh water.

Unfortunately this water adds to the tailing pond problems.

You don't get much cleaner oil than the tar sands and there are no wars and the resulting bodies around the country.

It is interesting to note that China has interests in the tar sands. When California tweaks their BS carbon footprint into a boot the tar sands will have to find other markets, off shore.

COS.UN is one of the sweetest stocks on the board.

One Trillion Dollar Commercial Real Estate Time Bomb Now Ticking

Mon, 27 Apr 2009 13:07:36 -0400

An interesting market to watch is Calgary Alberta. Calgary became the western Distribution point as companies built big box warehouses to distribute their products across western Canada and the US.

Over the years the twinning of the highway between Vancouver and Winnipeg has taken place. Many of the big box places and new warehouses in Calgary are no longer required. Rocky Mountain Double trucks can now run between Vancouver and Winnipeg. No need to stop in Calgary now.

There will be more tears there as money for selling their unwanted warehouses continues to dry up.

Natural Gas Is Heading to 1997 Levels, Should Stay There Awhile

Mon, 27 Apr 2009 12:59:30 -0400

Time to look close at your utility bills. If your electricity is gas generated, there should be sharp reductions as the rates we are paying now were for double digit prices on gas.

The Start of a Dry Spell for POT?

Fri, 24 Apr 2009 11:16:19 -0400

I think POT is solid and upward motivated. When the 240.00 prices were on top POT did not increase production by opening new plants and it did not throw their product at new accounts who were caught short as their old suppliers abandoned them for more cash.

Potash Corp looked after their customers and held the market prices they did not abandon them for short term profits

Their recent open policies regarding execuative salaries was fresh and forward looking. In my view they remain the brightest star on the board.

Carbon Cap-and-Trade Could Increase Coal Usage

Wed, 01 Apr 2009 11:11:16 -0400

I think carbon cap and trade is a sham. In my mind it allows companies to move revenue around as an expense where otherwise it would have been taxed.

Cap and trade carbon targets are not measurable in reality . They remain best guess and "should produce etc"

In Alberta, the Government has elected to tell people that all carbon dioxide going down hole is a sequestered carbon. They are using it to scrub oil in old oil strata which is not deep enough to sequester the carbon.

albertathedetails.blog... is an article on carbon with graphics and the links.

Tuesday Options Update: PLD, MON, POT, XLF & WFC

Wed, 01 Apr 2009 10:53:24 -0400

During the peak weeks POT did not sell to the high spot instead, stuck with their tried and true customers giving them peace of mind and assurance their supplies would not be interrupted.

I have to believe this act of good corporate citizenship is going to put their stocks much higher if for no other reason than stability.

Big Oil Pays Big Taxes

Tue, 10 Mar 2009 12:44:03 -0400

Seems to me these oil companies put the big tax numbers up front to avoid paying what would be a reasonable royalty on the oil taken from the state/province.

North Dakota rates taken of 19% are really low but in line with Alberta's rates of 19%. The latter however is taken in Canadian dollars which is 20% less than that in N Dakota.

Saskatewan and BC are both up in the 30% range.

The oil companies are telling us we are lucky to have the jobs and the revenues that come from them. The resources are not renewable! I am of a mind we should be taking a reasonable royalty up front!

Tar Sands: How Much Is Out There and Can Nuclear Help?

Sun, 22 Feb 2009 12:10:23 -0500

The company’s sealed reactor can produce 70 megawatts etc.
I have never heard of them before!

Electrical heating of the strata is used successful by Shell Canada in BC. And, it makes a lot more sense environmentally than does burning huge amounts of natural gas to the same end.

The problem has been cheap power which, apparently this outfit can provide. I don't know anything about these 70MW plants (usually nuclear plants run 2000 MW each) but have to wonder the wisdom of sticking them on top of the slurry the tar sands is made of.

The Alberta Government has rejected any nuclear facilities for the tar sands instead backing the Mackenzie Valley pipeline and the natural gas that is to come south to provide the tar sands with much needed natural gas.

What Do Gold-to-Oil and Gold-to-Silver Ratios Say?

Wed, 18 Feb 2009 11:17:58 -0500

Who would put coke in Johnny Walkers?

Three Ethanol Pioneers That Could Profit Nicely

Fri, 13 Feb 2009 12:34:28 -0500

A barrel is a barrel regardless:

1 barrel = 31,5 gal us
= 26.22 gal UK (Can)
= 119.24 Liter

More Oil, Less Gasoline

Thu, 12 Feb 2009 11:26:01 -0500

The article implies gasoline is the principal product running opposite oil. No refinery is in the business of making gasoline! The refineries are built to produce various diesel fuels. This is done by taking off the HVB (high vapour base).

The HVB is what the gasoline is made up of. If there is no diesel demand there is no HVB to make gasoline with. Conversely if the gasoline is not sold the storage fills up. With no place to put the HVB production dwindles.

How Carbon Caps Will Affect Utilities Sector

Sun, 08 Feb 2009 15:53:03 -0500

Thanks for a good read! This is the time and place to take nuclear power more seriously!

Coal power comes in at 2.80 MWh and leaves behind a legacy of fly ash heavily contaminated with heavy metals and serious salts of various kinds.

Wind generation runs about 6.00 per MWh and leaves a legacy of noise and distributed signal.

Hydro generation runs about 2.00 per MWh and leaves behind a changed waterway and the implications.

Nuclear power comes in at about the same price as coal generation and can be built in 2000 MW units using either external or enclosed cooling systems. This leaves a legacy of a waste product that can be totally controlled and contained and is about the size of your desk after a years operation.

Green isn't necessarily wind and water.

Alberta Acts to Reduce Oil Royalties

Thu, 18 Dec 2008 19:38:30 -0500

With our dollar at 80 cents the province is loosing 20% of our royalty in exchange. That is over 6 billion dollars of Albertans monies have gone into oil pockets as a bonus! 11 cents is light!

Because of this, Albertans are given a choice of a deficit or, do you want to pay more for gas at the pumps. Some choice!

On another front this same bunch of bandits is saying they will close rural hospitals and turn them into homes for the aging. This, forcing rural people into city hospitals for treatment.

In almost the same breath they say they are going to increase the costs of accommodation in these same buildings as a means to attract investment.

Soon enough you will hear the announcement that the hospitals have been sold to Conservative insiders for a dollar (After you have finished paying for conversations as required). This is still another big leap forward in privatization.

When Mel Knight made his lie public at the last election he put out reams of paper showing there would be increased revenue attributed to his "new deal". The figures put forward to the public includedlies about anticipated revenues from new production from new tar sands installations.

When the crunch came, the new projects were cancelled and his numbers became impossible. So much for the most expensive lie in the Conservative history!

The minster went public saying "errors had been made" In any civilized Government there would be resignations of both Stelmach and Knight but not in Alberta; they own it you know.

Job Losses: Not Bottoming Yet

Sat, 06 Dec 2008 14:21:23 -0500

I can tell you a lot about job statistics. When you are unemployed the stat is at 100% !

Canadian Oil Sands Barely Affected by Syncrude-Alberta Agreement

Fri, 21 Nov 2008 18:35:01 -0500

The new royalty program was a sham from start to finish!
Their numbers were down to 19% royalty from 25% original agreement.
That put 6% onto their profit.

The Government changed the royalty from US dollars to Canadian Dollars
That put 15-18% onto their profit.

The new royalty regime starts them back at 25%, restored from the 19%

That still leaves them paying 16% less in royalty at the first of the year.

What a bonus!