User 196790's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/196790/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/113169-profiting-from-bernanke-s-super-fed-and-obama-s-newer-deal?source=feed#comment-377598 377598
I also believe it could potentially suspend dollar-gold convertibility like FDR, which is why I keep my bullion stored in Australia.


On Jan 23 02:50 PM rothy wrote:

> Naufal, congratulations on an excellent article. I have been studying
> the Fed's balance sheet and come to many similar conclusions. What
> I can't quite understand when people peg the gold price is why they
> choose the Fed's liabilities to measure against the reported gold
> stocks and not a different measure such as M1 or a percentage of
> M3 that might relate to the required reserve ratio. I agree with
> the assessment that all the new money creation ultimately leads to
> inflation but what I find troubling is all of these new ads and discussions
> about gold that have been dormant for several years. It makes me
> wonder if there will be an overt attempt to drive investor dollars
> into gold to allow them to revalue their holdings without having
> to do what FDR did. If they "let" the gold price rise to between
> $6,000 and $10,000 over the next few years in this fashion then they
> could balance their balance sheet. I wonder what happens if their
> liabilities continue to rise as has been stated and their liabilities
> hit 5T in a few years. Would this then imply to you a potential gold
> price of nearly $20,000 per oz? Keep up the great work and I look
> forward to your next post]]> Thu, 05 Feb 2009 18:22:09 -0500
I also believe it could potentially suspend dollar-gold convertibility like FDR, which is why I keep my bullion stored in Australia.


On Jan 23 02:50 PM rothy wrote:

> Naufal, congratulations on an excellent article. I have been studying
> the Fed's balance sheet and come to many similar conclusions. What
> I can't quite understand when people peg the gold price is why they
> choose the Fed's liabilities to measure against the reported gold
> stocks and not a different measure such as M1 or a percentage of
> M3 that might relate to the required reserve ratio. I agree with
> the assessment that all the new money creation ultimately leads to
> inflation but what I find troubling is all of these new ads and discussions
> about gold that have been dormant for several years. It makes me
> wonder if there will be an overt attempt to drive investor dollars
> into gold to allow them to revalue their holdings without having
> to do what FDR did. If they "let" the gold price rise to between
> $6,000 and $10,000 over the next few years in this fashion then they
> could balance their balance sheet. I wonder what happens if their
> liabilities continue to rise as has been stated and their liabilities
> hit 5T in a few years. Would this then imply to you a potential gold
> price of nearly $20,000 per oz? Keep up the great work and I look
> forward to your next post]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113169-profiting-from-bernanke-s-super-fed-and-obama-s-newer-deal?source=feed#comment-377594 377594
Price inflation will show up first and foremost in precious metals (which are all breaking out of important bear trends) and next in equities, which the Fed seems to be putting a price floor under at Dow 8000. This is the outside force you speak of, and it's here.


On Jan 07 07:07 PM Nelson_Lai1975 wrote:

> I agreed that Fed Carry Trade (as mentioned in your article) is what
> keeping demand for Treasuries artificially high.
>
> However, I don't believe that the tide will shift as we speaks. The
> Fed has not acquired enough debt as of yet. The Fed will want to
> be gold price low (via Gold Carry Trade) so there can continue selling
> 30 years Treasuries at around 2%.
>
> Think about it, if you are the Fed, will be satisfied with selling
> only 2 trillions of treasuries ? No, 2 T is like a big drop of water
> in the bucket, but that is not Fed ultimate goal.
>
> With all the anticipated spending that are needed in the short future,
> Fed will want to continue the Fed Carry Trade as long as possible.
>
>
> The tipping point will be outside force from the Fed That outside
> force will be inflation.
>
> It may take at least until after June before signs of inflation show
> up.
>
> Let wait and see.....]]> Thu, 05 Feb 2009 18:20:09 -0500
Price inflation will show up first and foremost in precious metals (which are all breaking out of important bear trends) and next in equities, which the Fed seems to be putting a price floor under at Dow 8000. This is the outside force you speak of, and it's here.


On Jan 07 07:07 PM Nelson_Lai1975 wrote:

> I agreed that Fed Carry Trade (as mentioned in your article) is what
> keeping demand for Treasuries artificially high.
>
> However, I don't believe that the tide will shift as we speaks. The
> Fed has not acquired enough debt as of yet. The Fed will want to
> be gold price low (via Gold Carry Trade) so there can continue selling
> 30 years Treasuries at around 2%.
>
> Think about it, if you are the Fed, will be satisfied with selling
> only 2 trillions of treasuries ? No, 2 T is like a big drop of water
> in the bucket, but that is not Fed ultimate goal.
>
> With all the anticipated spending that are needed in the short future,
> Fed will want to continue the Fed Carry Trade as long as possible.
>
>
> The tipping point will be outside force from the Fed That outside
> force will be inflation.
>
> It may take at least until after June before signs of inflation show
> up.
>
> Let wait and see.....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113169-profiting-from-bernanke-s-super-fed-and-obama-s-newer-deal?source=feed#comment-348157 348157 Tue, 06 Jan 2009 23:54:52 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113169-profiting-from-bernanke-s-super-fed-and-obama-s-newer-deal?source=feed#comment-347750 347750 Tue, 06 Jan 2009 14:49:23 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113169-profiting-from-bernanke-s-super-fed-and-obama-s-newer-deal?source=feed#comment-347149 347149

On Jan 05 11:32 PM R JENSEN wrote:

> "This leads me to believe gold will be worth $10,000/oz by 2012."
>
>
> Are you referring to what you call the "intrinsic" value of gold?
> Or do you think that this is what you will pay up front for gold?]]> Tue, 06 Jan 2009 04:32:30 -0500

On Jan 05 11:32 PM R JENSEN wrote:

> "This leads me to believe gold will be worth $10,000/oz by 2012."
>
>
> Are you referring to what you call the "intrinsic" value of gold?
> Or do you think that this is what you will pay up front for gold?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113169-profiting-from-bernanke-s-super-fed-and-obama-s-newer-deal?source=feed#comment-347148 347148
$2 trillion new dollars. No goods expansion to back them.

If goods supply contraction is to occur, it'd be much farther down the line.]]> Tue, 06 Jan 2009 04:28:36 -0500
$2 trillion new dollars. No goods expansion to back them.

If goods supply contraction is to occur, it'd be much farther down the line.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113169-profiting-from-bernanke-s-super-fed-and-obama-s-newer-deal?source=feed#comment-347027 347027 Mon, 05 Jan 2009 23:28:40 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108965-the-american-crisis-and-the-case-for-an-inflationary-depression?source=feed#comment-321245 321245 Thu, 04 Dec 2008 22:01:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108965-the-american-crisis-and-the-case-for-an-inflationary-depression?source=feed#comment-320039 320039 www.federalreserve.gov...

look at our external debt under clinton and our trade deficit under clinton. he vehemently fought for increased trade with china and the rest of the world, thinking the united states would gain from exporting its expensive goods and services to the chinese, who couldn't afford any of it.

he financed the strong economic growth of the 90s through foreign debt, the issuance of which has caused a debt bubble whose collapse could spell a devalution of the USD.


On Dec 03 01:15 PM VennData wrote:

> "...President Bill Clinton's strong encouragement of globalization
> and foreign trade led to a dependence on debt that will deepen the
> current recession into a possible depression and cause rampant inflation..."
>
>
> What are you talking about? Your ability to pick and choose causality
> is fanciful.]]> Wed, 03 Dec 2008 13:32:37 -0500 www.federalreserve.gov...

look at our external debt under clinton and our trade deficit under clinton. he vehemently fought for increased trade with china and the rest of the world, thinking the united states would gain from exporting its expensive goods and services to the chinese, who couldn't afford any of it.

he financed the strong economic growth of the 90s through foreign debt, the issuance of which has caused a debt bubble whose collapse could spell a devalution of the USD.


On Dec 03 01:15 PM VennData wrote:

> "...President Bill Clinton's strong encouragement of globalization
> and foreign trade led to a dependence on debt that will deepen the
> current recession into a possible depression and cause rampant inflation..."
>
>
> What are you talking about? Your ability to pick and choose causality
> is fanciful.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108965-the-american-crisis-and-the-case-for-an-inflationary-depression?source=feed#comment-320000 320000

On Dec 03 10:55 AM paultaut wrote:

> Thank you all, I only got into this article because N. S. appeared
> to be getting a bum rap. I personally disagree with the 3,300 level
> since I can't see inflation without inflated assets of some sort.
>
>
> There are opinions and then there are opinions held by only one person.
> Those who are selfopinionated will never listen to anyone else. Hopefully,
> I will, at least listen. IMHO]]> Wed, 03 Dec 2008 13:00:35 -0500

On Dec 03 10:55 AM paultaut wrote:

> Thank you all, I only got into this article because N. S. appeared
> to be getting a bum rap. I personally disagree with the 3,300 level
> since I can't see inflation without inflated assets of some sort.
>
>
> There are opinions and then there are opinions held by only one person.
> Those who are selfopinionated will never listen to anyone else. Hopefully,
> I will, at least listen. IMHO]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108965-the-american-crisis-and-the-case-for-an-inflationary-depression?source=feed#comment-319995 319995

On Dec 03 10:04 AM TimT wrote:

> Probably a smart man but clearly lacking in any kind of wise judgement.
> He uses good facts but his obvious internal personal bias causes
> him to come to extreme and wrong conclusions. Gold only has value
> because people perceive it to have value--no different from fiat
> money.]]> Wed, 03 Dec 2008 12:56:20 -0500

On Dec 03 10:04 AM TimT wrote:

> Probably a smart man but clearly lacking in any kind of wise judgement.
> He uses good facts but his obvious internal personal bias causes
> him to come to extreme and wrong conclusions. Gold only has value
> because people perceive it to have value--no different from fiat
> money.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108965-the-american-crisis-and-the-case-for-an-inflationary-depression?source=feed#comment-319666 319666
Japan and the US are different in two FUNDAMENTAL ways: 1. Japan did not have a massive exernal debt and 2. Japan did not have the global reserve currency.

There is a GLOBAL economic contraction and every nation is going to focus on DOMESTIC growth first. How do they finance that? Calling in loans to America and selling US treasuries.

There is no liquidity trap here, the Fed won't allow it. And even if somehow it occurs, the debt bubble will collapse itself... simply put, America cannot pay off its debt and there won't be enough demand for US debt to keep the USD afloat.]]> Wed, 03 Dec 2008 08:54:02 -0500
Japan and the US are different in two FUNDAMENTAL ways: 1. Japan did not have a massive exernal debt and 2. Japan did not have the global reserve currency.

There is a GLOBAL economic contraction and every nation is going to focus on DOMESTIC growth first. How do they finance that? Calling in loans to America and selling US treasuries.

There is no liquidity trap here, the Fed won't allow it. And even if somehow it occurs, the debt bubble will collapse itself... simply put, America cannot pay off its debt and there won't be enough demand for US debt to keep the USD afloat.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105280-five-factors-that-can-determine-the-fate-of-the-u-s-dollar?source=feed#comment-316994 316994
oil prices will begin to rise again but mainly because it is priced in dollars, which will be declining. oil priced in gold (better indicator of intrinsic price of oil) may even go down, based on demand destruction. oil stocks will not show anything better than a bear bounce, as the commodity bubble of the last 5 years has collapsed and buying stocks in the american equity markets will show no valuable profit (even if you find a way to find stocks that will trend upwards, the profits you are making are in dollars, which would be losing purchasing power, hence lowering your returns, even to a negative level).

the way to make money is to buy gold and buy bear-biased securities (such as put options, ultrashort ETFs, etc) liquidating their capital gains into swiss francs. this is all long term advice.]]> Fri, 28 Nov 2008 22:10:09 -0500
oil prices will begin to rise again but mainly because it is priced in dollars, which will be declining. oil priced in gold (better indicator of intrinsic price of oil) may even go down, based on demand destruction. oil stocks will not show anything better than a bear bounce, as the commodity bubble of the last 5 years has collapsed and buying stocks in the american equity markets will show no valuable profit (even if you find a way to find stocks that will trend upwards, the profits you are making are in dollars, which would be losing purchasing power, hence lowering your returns, even to a negative level).

the way to make money is to buy gold and buy bear-biased securities (such as put options, ultrashort ETFs, etc) liquidating their capital gains into swiss francs. this is all long term advice.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105280-five-factors-that-can-determine-the-fate-of-the-u-s-dollar?source=feed#comment-316993 316993
oil prices will begin to rise again but mainly because it is priced in dollars, which will be declining. oil priced in gold (better indicator of intrinsic price of oil) may even go down, based on demand destruction. oil stocks will not show anything better than a bear bounce, as the commodity bubble of the last 5 years has collapsed and buying stocks in the american equity markets will show no valuable profit (even if you find a way to find stocks that will trend upwards, the profits you are making are in dollars, which would be losing purchasing power, hence lowering your returns, even to a negative level).

the way to make money is to buy gold and buy bear-biased securities (such as put options, ultrashort ETFs, etc) liquidating their capital gains into swiss francs. this is all long term advice.]]> Fri, 28 Nov 2008 22:10:08 -0500
oil prices will begin to rise again but mainly because it is priced in dollars, which will be declining. oil priced in gold (better indicator of intrinsic price of oil) may even go down, based on demand destruction. oil stocks will not show anything better than a bear bounce, as the commodity bubble of the last 5 years has collapsed and buying stocks in the american equity markets will show no valuable profit (even if you find a way to find stocks that will trend upwards, the profits you are making are in dollars, which would be losing purchasing power, hence lowering your returns, even to a negative level).

the way to make money is to buy gold and buy bear-biased securities (such as put options, ultrashort ETFs, etc) liquidating their capital gains into swiss francs. this is all long term advice.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104120-the-perversion-of-american-capitalism?source=feed#comment-298958 298958 Wed, 05 Nov 2008 17:30:17 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/104120-the-perversion-of-american-capitalism?source=feed#comment-298956 298956
The "American people" will not get us out of this. Their collective merit in intellect and ingenuity is irrelevant. We need libertarian economic policy to get us out. We have to understand that artificially high money supply caused the misdirection of capital that we are falling off of right now. And if we are to remain the economic superpower of the world, we have to let the markets do their work and maintain purchasing power for America.

America works because it is, like everyone is saying, debt-driven. America is the best investment in the history of the world. Or at least it was. We rely on that image for foreign investment and reliance. We rely on that image for purchasing power. We have to prove it now. We need to get Alexander Hamilton on their ass.

Dawg, free market FOR THE WIN.]]> Wed, 05 Nov 2008 17:27:15 -0500
The "American people" will not get us out of this. Their collective merit in intellect and ingenuity is irrelevant. We need libertarian economic policy to get us out. We have to understand that artificially high money supply caused the misdirection of capital that we are falling off of right now. And if we are to remain the economic superpower of the world, we have to let the markets do their work and maintain purchasing power for America.

America works because it is, like everyone is saying, debt-driven. America is the best investment in the history of the world. Or at least it was. We rely on that image for foreign investment and reliance. We rely on that image for purchasing power. We have to prove it now. We need to get Alexander Hamilton on their ass.

Dawg, free market FOR THE WIN.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104120-the-perversion-of-american-capitalism?source=feed#comment-298952 298952 Wed, 05 Nov 2008 17:23:00 -0500