User 196790

Five Factors That Can Determine the Fate of the U.S. Dollar

jegan, that is an incorrect analysis. the market/dollar divergence is strictly because the dollar is still considered the safe haven for all the deleveraging and liquidating going on in the equity markets as asset bubbles collapse (which is why so much selling is occuring). when the last bubble, us foreign debt, finally collapses, the dollar will collapse, all while the market continues its descent (the economy will continue to contract, and a devalued dollar will weaken purchasing power parity, adding to the contraction's effects).

oil prices will begin to rise again but mainly because it is priced in dollars, which will be declining. oil priced in gold (better indicator of intrinsic price of oil) may even go down, based on demand destruction. oil stocks will not show anything better than a bear bounce, as the commodity bubble of the last 5 years has collapsed and buying stocks in the american equity markets will show no valuable profit (even if you find a way to find stocks that will trend upwards, the profits you are making are in dollars, which would be losing purchasing power, hence lowering your returns, even to a negative level).

the way to make money is to buy gold and buy bear-biased securities (such as put options, ultrashort ETFs, etc) liquidating their capital gains into swiss francs. this is all long term advice.

Five Factors That Can Determine the Fate of the U.S. Dollar

jegan, that is an incorrect analysis. the market/dollar divergence is strictly because the dollar is still considered the safe haven for all the deleveraging and liquidating going on in the equity markets as asset bubbles collapse (which is why so much selling is occuring). when the last bubble, us foreign debt, finally collapses, the dollar will collapse, all while the market continues its descent (the economy will continue to contract, and a devalued dollar will weaken purchasing power parity, adding to the contraction's effects).

oil prices will begin to rise again but mainly because it is priced in dollars, which will be declining. oil priced in gold (better indicator of intrinsic price of oil) may even go down, based on demand destruction. oil stocks will not show anything better than a bear bounce, as the commodity bubble of the last 5 years has collapsed and buying stocks in the american equity markets will show no valuable profit (even if you find a way to find stocks that will trend upwards, the profits you are making are in dollars, which would be losing purchasing power, hence lowering your returns, even to a negative level).

the way to make money is to buy gold and buy bear-biased securities (such as put options, ultrashort ETFs, etc) liquidating their capital gains into swiss francs. this is all long term advice.