mikefarr

The Apple Stock MacWorld Expo Convention Correlation

Apple will not be at MacWorld this year. The date to watch in the January 26 announcement of the tablet device at a special San Francisco announcement. As Apple stock price fluctuates strongly with pre-announcement rumors and declines with the announcement itself (the iPhone announcement being a notable exception) these effects will be over by the time MacWorld rolls around in Feb.

What’s Really Going on with Apple, Google, AT&T and the FCC

The Trojan Horse part of the argument is important. Everyone tries to get one of their products as standard fare on the other guys'. Google chrome on Mac and Win. Safari and iTunes on Win. Google Voice on the iPhone. Adobe Flash, Sun Java on the iPhone (will never happen). Sun didn't even pretend that Java on Win was anything other than a Trojan Horse which is why Microsoft came up with their own incompatible version. It's a successful strategy. Today, what percentage of the record number of switchers from Win to Mac have been due to iTunes/iPod/iPhone users on Win simply completing the journey?

Back in early days, Microsoft did a version of Basic for the Apple II. It became a standard on the machine. When this happened it gave MS enormous leverage over Apple. They refused to re-license Microsoft Basic for the Apple II, effectively killing it, unless Apple licensed them part of the Macintosh UI. Apple had no choice.

I had the same thing happen to me when my company was bought our key technology licensor at less than we thought fair value. It's a lesson you only have to learn once.

Why Apple Stock Is Poised To Go Flat - At Best

What would happen to Apple's market cap if it's market share went from 5% to 30% or 50% or higher?

This is already happening in the student market, where this year it is outselling Dell and HP by wide margins. 25% is 5 times Apple's current marketshare. The iPhone has 1% market share. Could it go to 5%?

Unlike 5 years ago, most enterprises now support Macintosh alongside Windows. As baby-boomers retire they will be replaced by new graduates who overwhelmingly prefer Macintosh.

Pick a market share number and invest accordingly.

Of course all this doesn't take into account what else Apple might have in store for us.

Analysts Weigh in on Apple Earnings; 10-15 Points More Downside?

More importantly, when a single phone with a miniscule marketshare has the vast majority of web accesses, you would have to conclude that the mobile web is a fad and that Nokia, Samsung, Motorola and Sony-Ericson have spent the majority of their R&D handset dollars (unsuccessfully) chasing that fad.

Only 35% of iPhone Buyers Will Get it For $199

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

A Real iPhone Challenger - Barron's

Take a look at the u-Tube comparisons between the HTC Touch and the iPhone and decide for yourself. For example, compare visual voicemail to having to wade through each message listening to "to reply press 5, to store press ...". VVM allows you to see all your messages at once and decide which to listen to and which to not bother with while for the other, well, telcom execs have admitted (Pogue NYTimes) that the slow, sleepy voice and requirement that the user listen to each message in series is there to waste minutes and cost the user more. Who do you want designing for you?

Is User Apathy About Smartphones Becoming Apparent?

Have you actually used those phones? Apple comes out with the first phone whose browser is actually usable and immediately their small percent of the market had over 50% of the web accesses in the first months. More people surfed the web from a slow iPhone than from Sun Microsystem computers. Looking at how people use phones with a terrible, confusing, difficult user experience is not a good predictor of how they will Apple phones.