ferguson's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/196949/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/138082-book-review-street-fighters?source=feed#comment-507653 507653 Sun, 17 May 2009 19:53:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/136169-systemic-risk-the-foxes-are-guarding-the-henhouse?source=feed#comment-495474 495474
To say that the foxes are now guarding the henhouse is ridiculous. We threw out that government. And business has been thoroughly chastised. Investors have paid dearly. Deliberately criminal and/or deceptive behaviour should be punished. We have proved many times that we can recover from this kind of failure and will do so again. ]]> Fri, 08 May 2009 10:24:09 -0400
To say that the foxes are now guarding the henhouse is ridiculous. We threw out that government. And business has been thoroughly chastised. Investors have paid dearly. Deliberately criminal and/or deceptive behaviour should be punished. We have proved many times that we can recover from this kind of failure and will do so again. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136067-this-system-is-not-worth-saving?source=feed#comment-493782 493782
Incidentally, the delicate balance between freedom and responsibility is written right into the preamble to our constitution which cites both "the general welfare" and "the blessings of liberty" as among the most fundamental goals to which the federal government is dedicated.]]> Thu, 07 May 2009 10:55:19 -0400
Incidentally, the delicate balance between freedom and responsibility is written right into the preamble to our constitution which cites both "the general welfare" and "the blessings of liberty" as among the most fundamental goals to which the federal government is dedicated.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133084-government-s-new-credit-approach-does-the-end-justify-the-means?source=feed#comment-477709 477709 Sun, 26 Apr 2009 09:57:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131980-the-wisdom-of-half-positions?source=feed#comment-470908 470908 Tue, 21 Apr 2009 09:13:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131581-obama-summarizes-economic-policies-misses-several-key-points?source=feed#comment-468418 468418 Sun, 19 Apr 2009 11:16:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/130506-the-age-of-the-unthinkable-why-life-may-not-return-to-normal?source=feed#comment-460559 460559 Sun, 12 Apr 2009 12:18:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/130500-it-s-not-a-recession-it-s-the-new-reality?source=feed#comment-460344 460344
The real questions are: 1. whether we have the personal and political courage to act responsibly in dealing with the dangers; 2. whether we have the vision and leadership necessary to create (not just accept) a sustainable "reality;" 3. Whether we have the wisdom and restraint necessary to invest wisely and in the long term interest of life on earth rather than in pursuit of immediate self aggrandizement.

It is of interest that piracy has flowered on the high seas at the same time that it has flowered on Wall Street. I am not speaking particularly about the bankers and financial engineers who have responsible for the housing mortgage fraud, but about the whole culture that has allowed boards of directors, executives and employees to hijack corporate America and divert its productivity from owners (shareholders) to their own benefit.

The question is not whether we spent too much money or borrowed too much. The question is what we borrowed for and what we spent it on. If we had borrowed and spent it on energy efficiency, education and infrastructure, we would be in great shape. Instead we spent it on fat cats, 20,000 square foot houses, $50,000 weddings and $100,000 vacations.

The "new reality" should include a new definition of "The Wealth of Nations."]]> Sun, 12 Apr 2009 09:16:50 -0400
The real questions are: 1. whether we have the personal and political courage to act responsibly in dealing with the dangers; 2. whether we have the vision and leadership necessary to create (not just accept) a sustainable "reality;" 3. Whether we have the wisdom and restraint necessary to invest wisely and in the long term interest of life on earth rather than in pursuit of immediate self aggrandizement.

It is of interest that piracy has flowered on the high seas at the same time that it has flowered on Wall Street. I am not speaking particularly about the bankers and financial engineers who have responsible for the housing mortgage fraud, but about the whole culture that has allowed boards of directors, executives and employees to hijack corporate America and divert its productivity from owners (shareholders) to their own benefit.

The question is not whether we spent too much money or borrowed too much. The question is what we borrowed for and what we spent it on. If we had borrowed and spent it on energy efficiency, education and infrastructure, we would be in great shape. Instead we spent it on fat cats, 20,000 square foot houses, $50,000 weddings and $100,000 vacations.

The "new reality" should include a new definition of "The Wealth of Nations."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130419-fasb-watch-who-should-make-the-economic-calls?source=feed#comment-458757 458757
The only guidance I have heard is that the revised standards might allow the use of "income generated" as a measure of value in addition to "current sale prices."

This would seem to raise a common sense comparison in a world where hysteria reigns. In the real estate world, appraisals of the value of commercial property may be based on 1. comparable sales; 2. replacement cost; or 3; income generated. I am not a real estate appraiser either, so any correction will be appreciated.

That suggests that there just might be reasonable measures of value othere than current sales prices which, if there is no market, are judged to be close to zero.

Of course assessing "income generated" involves the hard work of actually looking at these collections of "toxic assets," adding up the income they are generating and can be reasonably expected to continue to generate. But that would mean substituting hard work for hysteria which is a lot less fun and doesn't sell well in on Bleeker Street or in Hollywood.

An aversion to substituting hard work for hysteria is perhaps inevitable in the entirely fraudulent financial landscape which has allowed so many of the opportunistic but marginally qualified shell game operators to make millions and spend it on Palm Beach and Oyster Bay lifestyles.

The evidence is in. Arthur Laffer was wrong. "Trickle down" doesn't work. The true wealth of nations lies in providing opportunity, education and health care to the population as a whole.]]> Fri, 10 Apr 2009 09:55:45 -0400
The only guidance I have heard is that the revised standards might allow the use of "income generated" as a measure of value in addition to "current sale prices."

This would seem to raise a common sense comparison in a world where hysteria reigns. In the real estate world, appraisals of the value of commercial property may be based on 1. comparable sales; 2. replacement cost; or 3; income generated. I am not a real estate appraiser either, so any correction will be appreciated.

That suggests that there just might be reasonable measures of value othere than current sales prices which, if there is no market, are judged to be close to zero.

Of course assessing "income generated" involves the hard work of actually looking at these collections of "toxic assets," adding up the income they are generating and can be reasonably expected to continue to generate. But that would mean substituting hard work for hysteria which is a lot less fun and doesn't sell well in on Bleeker Street or in Hollywood.

An aversion to substituting hard work for hysteria is perhaps inevitable in the entirely fraudulent financial landscape which has allowed so many of the opportunistic but marginally qualified shell game operators to make millions and spend it on Palm Beach and Oyster Bay lifestyles.

The evidence is in. Arthur Laffer was wrong. "Trickle down" doesn't work. The true wealth of nations lies in providing opportunity, education and health care to the population as a whole.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127127-how-aig-bamboozled-the-government?source=feed#comment-435720 435720 Sun, 22 Mar 2009 16:09:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124593-gm-s-next-last-chance?source=feed#comment-417323 417323 OK, now we have the title right, for real credit where credit is due, we need the name of the long forgotten authoer, bless his (or her) soul,]]> Sat, 07 Mar 2009 13:56:06 -0500 OK, now we have the title right, for real credit where credit is due, we need the name of the long forgotten authoer, bless his (or her) soul,]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124593-gm-s-next-last-chance?source=feed#comment-417320 417320
]]> Sat, 07 Mar 2009 13:54:33 -0500
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124550-the-bane-of-broken-balance-sheets?source=feed#comment-417148 417148
Great, but very discouraging summary. Question. Has all of this vast expansion of credit and investment bought nothing of value?

What about globalization? If living standards have been raised around the world, is it possible that our vastly expanded productive capacity will eventually find a use?

What about technology? Will the computer revolution, the internet and automated processes in manufacturing raise productivity standards to levels that will make it possible to absorb the losses?

What about the environment? Degredation of the environment probably continues, but at a slower pace and recognition of the need to reverse that trend grows daily. Is it possible that what we are seeing is a world-wide recognition that we need to ratchet down toward a sustainable world?

What about capital? Trillions of dollars have been lost around the world, a few of them mine. Is it possible that we might gradually come around to realize that some things are more important than capital?
]]> Sat, 07 Mar 2009 10:43:47 -0500
Great, but very discouraging summary. Question. Has all of this vast expansion of credit and investment bought nothing of value?

What about globalization? If living standards have been raised around the world, is it possible that our vastly expanded productive capacity will eventually find a use?

What about technology? Will the computer revolution, the internet and automated processes in manufacturing raise productivity standards to levels that will make it possible to absorb the losses?

What about the environment? Degredation of the environment probably continues, but at a slower pace and recognition of the need to reverse that trend grows daily. Is it possible that what we are seeing is a world-wide recognition that we need to ratchet down toward a sustainable world?

What about capital? Trillions of dollars have been lost around the world, a few of them mine. Is it possible that we might gradually come around to realize that some things are more important than capital?
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124548-watch-this-sector-during-the-upcoming-bear-market-rally?source=feed#comment-415654 415654
Here it is. Adjust the basic principle to read something like this.

"The value of an asset on the books which is difficult to assess as a result of infrequent trades shall be no higher than the sum of the original value on the books of the owner and the most recent traded price divided by two."

All better informed pundits can now explain why this is a stupid idea and would not work.]]> Fri, 06 Mar 2009 08:33:21 -0500
Here it is. Adjust the basic principle to read something like this.

"The value of an asset on the books which is difficult to assess as a result of infrequent trades shall be no higher than the sum of the original value on the books of the owner and the most recent traded price divided by two."

All better informed pundits can now explain why this is a stupid idea and would not work.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124562-how-obama-s-budget-will-affect-commodities?source=feed#comment-415630 415630 Fri, 06 Mar 2009 08:23:58 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123363-banks-glass-half-empty-with-red-ink?source=feed#comment-407712 407712 ]]> Sun, 01 Mar 2009 09:36:56 -0500 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123372-will-obama-be-re-elected?source=feed#comment-407685 407685
In other words, the proposal is designed at least partly to prevent the very wealthy from getting a tax break that they neither need nor deserve by building an overly large and overly expensive house and to be subsidized in that action by the American taxpayer.

This is good policy, not bad policy. ]]> Sun, 01 Mar 2009 09:24:31 -0500
In other words, the proposal is designed at least partly to prevent the very wealthy from getting a tax break that they neither need nor deserve by building an overly large and overly expensive house and to be subsidized in that action by the American taxpayer.

This is good policy, not bad policy. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123375-market-death-spiral-continues?source=feed#comment-407659 407659
Globalism and trickle down economics have pulled the rug out from underneath the masses who are now seen as nothing more than a source of sales for the pools of capital that serve the still wealthy.

Obama is rightfully seeking to reverse this slide toward national poverty. The nation will be much better off when the national wealth is shared more fairly and the masses have sufficient purchasing power to maintain a decent standard of living. Even the wealthy will be better off, because it was the mistaken trajectory under Reagan, Bush, Clinton and Bush which has taken us over this economic cliff. ]]> Sun, 01 Mar 2009 09:05:54 -0500
Globalism and trickle down economics have pulled the rug out from underneath the masses who are now seen as nothing more than a source of sales for the pools of capital that serve the still wealthy.

Obama is rightfully seeking to reverse this slide toward national poverty. The nation will be much better off when the national wealth is shared more fairly and the masses have sufficient purchasing power to maintain a decent standard of living. Even the wealthy will be better off, because it was the mistaken trajectory under Reagan, Bush, Clinton and Bush which has taken us over this economic cliff. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120716-will-lack-of-accord-on-stimulus-obscure-economic-lessons?source=feed#comment-391691 391691
It appears, however, that the problem with capitalism is exactly the same. Eventually you run out of other people's money.

The question is whether you want capitalists in charge of the process or governments.

Perhaps if we looked at this question objectively and without ranting and raving at each other, we might actually find a balance that works.]]> Tue, 17 Feb 2009 08:17:02 -0500
It appears, however, that the problem with capitalism is exactly the same. Eventually you run out of other people's money.

The question is whether you want capitalists in charge of the process or governments.

Perhaps if we looked at this question objectively and without ranting and raving at each other, we might actually find a balance that works.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120488-obama-s-housing-plan-what-will-it-really-accomplish?source=feed#comment-386844 386844 Fri, 13 Feb 2009 08:19:46 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/116423-how-to-take-advantage-of-the-booming-real-estate-market-yes-booming?source=feed#comment-366431 366431 Mon, 26 Jan 2009 10:25:38 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/115329-team-obama-vs-team-reagan?source=feed#comment-360026 360026
Obama faces enormous challenges, including all those created or left behind by Reagan, Bush 1, Clinton and Bush 11. My bet is that, when he is done, Obama will have done more for the country than any president since Franklin Roosevelt.

]]> Mon, 19 Jan 2009 13:25:08 -0500
Obama faces enormous challenges, including all those created or left behind by Reagan, Bush 1, Clinton and Bush 11. My bet is that, when he is done, Obama will have done more for the country than any president since Franklin Roosevelt.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114075-welcome-to-ermflation?source=feed#comment-351641 351641 Sat, 10 Jan 2009 10:43:01 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112168-the-origin-of-financial-crises?source=feed#comment-351626 351626
It may be assumed that the business world will have a certain fraction of employees and policy makers who will "push the envelope" in order to create profit. Occasionally that expands into the kind of fraud of which we have seen more than a little in the last decade.

The average investor relies on the rating agencies to use experience to evaluate risk. In this case they had no experience, but proceeded to provide the highest ratings. They failed very badly in their essential responsibility and may be both civilly and criminally responsible.

The regulatory agencies (including both the SEC and the Federal Reserve) are only slightly less culpapable. The performance of the SEC under Christoper Cox parrallels the performance of FEMA under whatsisname Brown (of you're doing a great job, Brownie, fame). Bottom line, we all lined up for the free lunch and, when the credit fueled cornucopia was revealed to be a fraud, we wonder how it could have happened. Same old story. There is no free lunch. Never has been. Never will be.]]> Sat, 10 Jan 2009 10:20:05 -0500
It may be assumed that the business world will have a certain fraction of employees and policy makers who will "push the envelope" in order to create profit. Occasionally that expands into the kind of fraud of which we have seen more than a little in the last decade.

The average investor relies on the rating agencies to use experience to evaluate risk. In this case they had no experience, but proceeded to provide the highest ratings. They failed very badly in their essential responsibility and may be both civilly and criminally responsible.

The regulatory agencies (including both the SEC and the Federal Reserve) are only slightly less culpapable. The performance of the SEC under Christoper Cox parrallels the performance of FEMA under whatsisname Brown (of you're doing a great job, Brownie, fame). Bottom line, we all lined up for the free lunch and, when the credit fueled cornucopia was revealed to be a fraud, we wonder how it could have happened. Same old story. There is no free lunch. Never has been. Never will be.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114058-cramming-down-on-whom?source=feed#comment-351601 351601 Sat, 10 Jan 2009 09:45:01 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112642-the-shadows-of-the-crisis-past-and-future?source=feed#comment-342504 342504
The switch rougly parrallels the period of increasing domination of the American consciousness by the electronic media and the need for the print media to follow suit in order to survive. I have been reading the Atlantic Monthly for 40 years and one only has to look at the most recent redesign of that once treasured publication to see measure the cost.

Our time horizons and our attention spans are too short and our whole outlook too self centered. J.D Salinger is 90 years old today and, having outgrown being Holden Caulfield, we have become the opposite: shallow, materialistic, greedy, shortsighted.]]> Wed, 31 Dec 2008 10:45:57 -0500
The switch rougly parrallels the period of increasing domination of the American consciousness by the electronic media and the need for the print media to follow suit in order to survive. I have been reading the Atlantic Monthly for 40 years and one only has to look at the most recent redesign of that once treasured publication to see measure the cost.

Our time horizons and our attention spans are too short and our whole outlook too self centered. J.D Salinger is 90 years old today and, having outgrown being Holden Caulfield, we have become the opposite: shallow, materialistic, greedy, shortsighted.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112485-financial-meltdown-good-luck-bad-luck-who-knows?source=feed#comment-341450 341450
For another, it is hard to be philosophic in the face of a loss, especially a great loss.

The mention of philosophy in this context suggests that it might be time to cite the Greek philosopher, Epictetus, i.e.,

"It's not what happens to you, but how you react, that matters."]]> Tue, 30 Dec 2008 11:05:26 -0500
For another, it is hard to be philosophic in the face of a loss, especially a great loss.

The mention of philosophy in this context suggests that it might be time to cite the Greek philosopher, Epictetus, i.e.,

"It's not what happens to you, but how you react, that matters."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112485-financial-meltdown-good-luck-bad-luck-who-knows?source=feed#comment-341441 341441
For another, it is hard to be philosophic in the face of a loss, especially a great loss.



]]> Tue, 30 Dec 2008 11:00:43 -0500
For another, it is hard to be philosophic in the face of a loss, especially a great loss.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111651-rough-economic-seas-toss-many-boats-including-oil-price?source=feed#comment-334516 334516
People will invent all sorts of schemes to satisfy greed. That is the original, fundamental bubble. JK is right.]]> Sat, 20 Dec 2008 09:09:22 -0500
People will invent all sorts of schemes to satisfy greed. That is the original, fundamental bubble. JK is right.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110491-federal-reserve-what-do-you-have-to-hide?source=feed#comment-328179 328179
But my guess is that federal reserve employees are federal employees and at least the chairman and members of the board of governors who are not there by virtue of being presidents of regional banks are appointed by federal officials.

The mandate of the federal reserve is regulatory and that is a function of government. If the mandate of the federal reserve were to promote the interest of banks, then the argument that it is not part of government would hold more water.

Here is one opinion that allowing Lehman Brothers to go bankrupt not a mistake. The failure of Lehman Brothers alerted the global financial community of the nature and the severity of the problem at a time when it was (hopefully) still manageable. If the fraud being perpetrated on the world by the financial community had been allowed to continue indefinitely, the consequences could only have been worse, perhaps even catastrophic.

These are, of course, only the opinions of an amateur observer and participant in the financial markets. I am not leveraged, conservatively invested and down 30% for the year which is a lot better than many of the newly minted millionaires in the financial world.



]]> Sat, 13 Dec 2008 09:49:31 -0500
But my guess is that federal reserve employees are federal employees and at least the chairman and members of the board of governors who are not there by virtue of being presidents of regional banks are appointed by federal officials.

The mandate of the federal reserve is regulatory and that is a function of government. If the mandate of the federal reserve were to promote the interest of banks, then the argument that it is not part of government would hold more water.

Here is one opinion that allowing Lehman Brothers to go bankrupt not a mistake. The failure of Lehman Brothers alerted the global financial community of the nature and the severity of the problem at a time when it was (hopefully) still manageable. If the fraud being perpetrated on the world by the financial community had been allowed to continue indefinitely, the consequences could only have been worse, perhaps even catastrophic.

These are, of course, only the opinions of an amateur observer and participant in the financial markets. I am not leveraged, conservatively invested and down 30% for the year which is a lot better than many of the newly minted millionaires in the financial world.



]]>