tireman63

Cash for Clunkers May Cost Up to $45,354 Per Vehicle

Won't someone please tell KMF his story will not hold water. If each man gave the room clerk ten dollar bills and he refunded a single dollar to each, then the cash register had $27 in it. If he kept $2, then the cash drawer would be down to $25. A second grader would know that.

Why Advanced Lead-Acid Batteries Will Dominate HEV Markets

John,
I like to follow these articles and comments from folks far more erudite and intelligent than I. My principal selfish interest comes from the standpoint of an automotive service provider who gets his livelihood from maintaining and servicing automobiles and light trucks. Just some of the questions have occurred to me after reading these posts:

Hybrids have three systems--an ICE engine, a storage battery system, and an electric motor propulsion system, coupled with a regenerative braking system. With Li-Ion batteries, there is an additional layer of complexity from the sophisticated control/monitoring system for the batteries alone. This will mean that technicians will have to undergo a great deal of training, and the costs of repair will rise accordingly. If the car mfgrs stick to current practice, they will require dedicated tools that are vehicle specific to diagnose problems. They will also restrict, as much as possible, the flow of information about diagnosis and repair.

Another concern is the ICE hybrid. What about the catalytic converter on these engines? Cat converters have a warmup period which is designed to eliminate excess unburned hydrocarbons from the exhaust when the engine is cold. If these ICE engines have to stop and start many times in the course of a day, especially in cold weather, how effective and long lived will these very expensive units be? Any ICE engine functions best and most efficiently when operated at a constant RPM. The starters on these hybrids better be much more durable than the ones on conventional vehicles, since the number of use cycles will be far greater.

From a purely selfish standpoint, the income from parts replacement on conventional cars will be greatly reduced. The need for ignition parts, fuel delivery parts, and cooling system maintenance, and oil and filter changes and belt and hose replacement will be gone. Brake pad replacement should be much less, but the steering, tire and wheel systems will probably be unaffected. I am speaking of pure electric cars, not hybrids.
Personally, I would be happy to see the elimination of these huge diameter ultra-low profile tires and wheels currently in vogue. They are wasteful of resources since they do not last as long, are prone to injury from rough roads, require more energy to rotate and more braking effort to stop. In addition, in wet weather, they will hydroplane much faster than conventional tires.

There are two engines that could be used right now that will reduce fuel consumption--the new hi-tech diesels and CNG vehicles. They are largely overlooked in the transportation equation, just as improvements in insulation to increase energy conservation in buildings. A VW diesel will easily meet Obama's new rules.

Just a few musings from a 78 year old tire dealer with 66 years of experience.

On Oil's Sesquicentennial, The Dream Becomes a Nightmare

On a historical note--the petroleum age really began in earnest in January of 1901 when the Capt. Anthony Lucas' Gusher well blew in at Beaumont, Texas. Hundreds of thousands of barrels of the black gold shot out of the well and onto the ground, where the poor drillers has absolutely no way to contain or control it. Earlier wells in Pennsylvania and elsewhere had nowhere near the volume and pressure demonstrated in the Spindletop Great East Texas' Oil Field. Before you give up on the oil patch, remember that we have managed to leave more in the ground that we took out. Enhanced recovery efforts will give us crude oil for a long time in the future. The real point is that almost all of the cheap crude has been found, especially in this hemisphere. We do need to conserve what we have, but do not stop exploration. Full disclosure--I do not work for an oil company. I have some miniscule diminishing royalty interests, and small positions in Exxon, Chevron, and Valero.

Why Lead-Carbon Batteries Will Deflate the Li-ion Bubble

I think that all of us will agree that conventional ICE will power the majority of vehicles in the US for the next five years. (you can substitute plurality if you don't like majority) That said, I do not see US auto mfgrs using anything but a conventional lead acid battery as original equipment. OE bean counters are only interested in components that will outlast the warranty periods. They do not want a 100,000 mile battery any more than the tire companies want a 100,000 mile treadwear tire. In fact, the radial tires currently supplied by Michelin do not deliver the same mileage as the units originally introduced in the 70's. The belt package has been modified, along with the aspect ratio, and the tread wear rate has gone up, not down. Incidentally, do the PbC batteries lose as much cranking power at low temperatures as the conventional types? I understand that the new units are more resistant to overcharge and elevated temperature damage, and that they can be recharged at a higher rate. I do not know about zero degree cranking power loss. What can you tell us about that drawback to conventional lead-acid units?

A123 Systems Moves Its Planned IPO to the Front Burner

John, I want you to be like my ideal, Mt. Jack Weill of Denver, Colorado. He passed away last year at age 107, and was going to the office daily less than two weeks before he died. He was the founder of Rockmount Clothing, and continued to drive until age 100, when no one would sell him insurance anymore. We think he won the gene pool.

How Short Term Supply Constraints Will Impact Booming HEV Markets

As a man who earns his livelihood from maintenance and repair of vehicles, I can assure all readers that one thing will happen-- the servicing and repair of these new inventions will be more costly and require far more training. The days of removing 2 hold-down J-bolts and loosening two cables for a battery exchange are over. If you don't connect an auxiliary source to maintain voltage, all sorts of unfortunate things happen. Even mundane operations lke repairing a tire/ wheel assembly with TPMS (tire pressure monitoring system) have become much more involved. You now need a costly scan tool (updated with each model change) to reprogram the computer if a wheel rotation or puncture repair is performed. Do not wander around nilly-willy with a screwdriver in the 300 volt systems, either. No one ever got a shock from 12 volt primary vehicles. What do you do with a PHEV that has run out of gas and amps on the side of the road? You cannot come out with a can of gasoline or a jumper battery to get rolling--you will need a tow truck- preferably one with a platform. When I learned to drive in a 1935 Ford, a weak battery could be overcome by pushing the car by hand, jumping in and popping the clutch in 2nd gear, and away we went. Now, with automatic transmissions and electronic fuel management dependent on voltage, those maneuvers will not work. I would like to stick around a while longer, just to see what happens.

The Truth About Unemployment Numbers

Many years ago, my father advised me "son, when you go out into this world, you will find that there are people who will pee on your leg and tell you it's raining". I have noticed lately that my pants seem quite damp, and not from incontinence.

Will Green Cars Make Detroit Profitable?

Ms Jackson's comment about "free enterprise"--a straw in the wind, or the whole darn haystack? Heaven help us if she decides that ethanol should be made mandatory in even greater percentages in motor fuel

Lead-Carbon: A Game Changer for Alternative Energy Storage

You have answered all my questions today--I have not been this overawed since my days as a freshman EE major at Rice Institute in Houston back in '48. (did not finish, by the way) Great work--absolutely tops

Toyota Tests and Rejects Lithium-Ion Batteries for the Prius

Now that Priuses (Priuii?) have been out a few years, what do we know about battery life and replacement cost? I have not seen any negative reports from Consumer Reports or anyone else. Still have to wonder how much the Japanese gov't is subsidizing the Toyota Prius. Given the tremendous (for Toyota Motor) profit loss on 2008 car sales, I don't think they are doing anything all that risky anymore.

By the way, it has been two years now since Firefly Energy won the Wall St. Journal Invention prize for technological achievement.
What is going on now, do you know? The silence is deafening.

How Growing HEV Markets Will Impact Battery Manufacturing Revenues

In re Advill's item #8--low friction tires--no way! He probably meant low hysteresis tires, or units with lower rolling resistance. Without adequate friction (or grip), you could neither go nor stop. John, can you give us a reference to basic battery terms? I did not understand the expression "valve regulated lead-acid". Is that the new spiral wound semi-dry types like the Optima? Also, what makes up an advanced lead-acid battery--does it include the capacitor, the graphite foam electrode, or both? The mayor of San Francisco is unable to distinguish between feces and wild honey, as far as his remarks about hybrid development. Maybe he spent too much time in the Haight-Asbury district.

Banks of the Living Dead

IMHO, Huntsman will prevail, if for no other reason than the integrity of the Huntsman family legacy. These are men of the old school who believe that their word is their bond, and a deal is a deal.

Li-ion Battery Technologies: Understanding Their Development Path

I don't think the folks at Delco battery (GM OE) ever got near a test rack. Those turkeys are notorious for leaking acid around the side terminals, ruining the cable ends (very expensive replacement) and giving poor performance in general. On some Cadillacs, the terminal will actually break off from the battery with the cable stud intact at the first attempt to remove the cable.

Li-ion Battery Technologies: Understanding Their Development Path

My study of the comments and appendages of this particular stream has really got me going. If you look at Michelins' Tweel concept, with the integrated motor/suspension contained in a large diameter wheel interior, along with the regenerative braking concept--it boggles the mind. First, the fancy alloy wheel business will be kaput, since the entire system is self contained--no room for flashy chrome. The cabin interior room will be greatly improved, since there is no need for ICE space, suspension components, etc. Brake system components such as pads, calipers and rotors, will be history. Tire repair will be unnecessary, and no spare will be needed. Not to mention oil and filter changes, fuel system maintenance,ignition and cooling system repairs--all gone. A minor challenge might be in dynamic balancing of the TWEEL assembly. With the proper configuration, even the need for wheel alignment should be reduced. Can you envision the local 7-11 with a battery of 440v charging stations instead of fuel pumps? I can see the price marquees now--$.25 per KWH. If you drive off with the cable still connected, a very loud bang with sparks, but no conflagration. I think the next ten years will be much different that the previous decade. Hang on, boys and girls.

Are Energy Storage Investors Chasing Their Own Tails?

John,
In your second paragraph above, you mentioned selling products to people making less than $200k/year. An old master or retailing said something like this a long time ago "We make our money not from the lady arriving in the chauffeur-driven limo, but from the shopgirl riding to work on the subway." The old gentleman was right.