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More ProShares Ultrashorts Tomfoolery

The logic is incomplete, I have studied this in detail. FXP failed hedgers terribly, but it could have gone the other way. If the underlying instrument has excess volatility, the ultra-anything will underperform. If the underlying instrument is going in a straight line (like the nov 15 bottom in financials), then the ultras overperform. You have to learn to side step the chop.

It is also possible to rebalance frequently if you want to use it as a hedging strategy. It is better as a directional play.

An Opportunity for Patient Investors - Barron's

ok, I will take the bait. I downloaded the dow from yahoo.finance. I calculated the 50 day ma (50 trading days), and we are currently 20% below it. it has breached that threshold on 4 of the last 12 trading days. It first breached at 9300, now at 8600.

The last times it breached that threshold was in 5 groups in the depression:

1929 first at 295, a month later at 245
1931 first at 128 (june) 107 to 100 (October) 82-70 (Dec)
1932 65 to 45 (June)

The market didn't get back to 295 until the 1950's.

This is not a good leading indicator to trade off of, uness you are going short.

An Opportunity for Patient Investors - Barron's

Do not trust anyone citing P-E's in this market. We know P has dropped 40% in a few months, but we do not know what has happened to E. Anyone claiming to know has a dog in the race. Even if you knew forward E, you cannot know where to pick the bottom during the global deleveraging. I take no comfort in knowing that the last time the market behaved this way was 1931.

Ongoing Market Sell-Off: It's Not The Short Sellers

I know of two people who liquidated their portfolios last week. I did last year. There is certainly more to come.

Lehman: Nobody Knows Anything

Thx Felix. It is soooo tempting to jump into this trade, but I have been burned by these ultra crazy situations before. So I am following your advise.

The Great Dollar Pump of 2008: A Doomed Central Bank Intervention

Listen... I shorted the euro at 1.55 for two simple reasons.

1. Our fed fund rate had nowhere to go but up (even a severe recession whould not have created any more easing... we are at the least effective part of the curve). Euros equivalent had nowhere to go but down (they were clearly overplaying the inflation bogey man).

2. Asset values are badly distorted. Any commonsense measure will do. $10 Lattes in France, for example. Commercial real estate in large cities. The PE's of the stock markets...

Hot money chases the carry trade and cheap assets. Cold money chases the account imbalances.

At $1.40 neither of these factors is different than at $1.55, so I am not closing my position.

Amazon Buying Borders? Don't Bet on It - Stifel

Plus, Amazon customers would have to start paying sales tax in every state with a Borders store. As you say... not a chance.

Amazon: Forget Analysts, Kindle Still Irrelevant

When the horseless carriage first came out, I am sure many dismissed it too. People liked the smell of horse manure. If you haven't seen one in the wild, you must be hanging out with the iPod demographic.