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An Opportunity for Patient Investors - Barron's

ok, I will take the bait. I downloaded the dow from yahoo.finance. I calculated the 50 day ma (50 trading days), and we are currently 20% below it. it has breached that threshold on 4 of the last 12 trading days. It first breached at 9300, now at 8600.

The last times it breached that threshold was in 5 groups in the depression:

1929 first at 295, a month later at 245
1931 first at 128 (june) 107 to 100 (October) 82-70 (Dec)
1932 65 to 45 (June)

The market didn't get back to 295 until the 1950's.

This is not a good leading indicator to trade off of, uness you are going short.

An Opportunity for Patient Investors - Barron's

Do not trust anyone citing P-E's in this market. We know P has dropped 40% in a few months, but we do not know what has happened to E. Anyone claiming to know has a dog in the race. Even if you knew forward E, you cannot know where to pick the bottom during the global deleveraging. I take no comfort in knowing that the last time the market behaved this way was 1931.