alpinesk8er

Don’t Worry About a Return to ‘70s Stagflation

Wage inflation is the result and part of the overall rise inflation expectation. There is and will be surplus labor both nationally and globally. However, China with still healthy supply of laborer (with another 300 million farmers waiting to be converted to factory workers) is experiencing double digit inflation. This is being exported straight back to US, and inflated transportation cost thanks to oil is only going to exacerbate the inflation expectation.

Conditions Of New Bull Markets: Recession

This is not a typical recession. Housing collapse is taking out the legs of the US economy, consumption. Now, US economy is crawling on government spending and export. Due to lower tax income and muni bond crisis, government spending will decrease for the next few years. To expand export takes more investment and time, and these are two things that we don't have. Bottom is far from near. Watch out for a few cliffs into October.