junkyarddog

Options Trader: Friday Outlook

These are crazy times, even worse than those of South America in the 80's. Remember their inflation of over 2,000% a year? Back there their goverment exausted all intervention options; all possible interventionists ideas ever written in all economic encyclopedias of the world. Of course, nothing worked for them, even changing their currency name several times AND declaring martial laws to freeze prices! What worked for them, starting in the 90’s (specifically Brazil)? It’s simple: their government stopped spending and printing money.

These are indeed scary and desperate times. All because of greed, out of control spending, and addiction to gambling (derivatives anyone?).

Thanks again for writing your articles free of charge to us, and shedding some light amidst such insane times.

Options Trader: Monday Meltdown Watch

WeeklyTA, yes, I read your blog and you can't be wrong. As you've said, end of discussion.

Options Trader: Monday Meltdown Watch

Phil: you're the only analyst who has the right to brag for being spot on in your market analysis this year. You were alone on insisting on speculation when oil was at $146 (where are the $200-dollar-a-barrel-e... now???). You were [almost] alone about the bailouts back in April.

I can't wait for you analysis tomorrow after the fire has calmed down a bit (hopefully).

Options Trader: 9/11 Redux

This is anyone's guess, but how long do you think this recession will last?

I'm living in a personal recession, even if the economists don't see that in their charts. The figures shown in the article above make my point.

I agree our problem is lack of leadship and over-spending. We're more concerned about war than prosperity. We spend like there is no tomorrow. Our government is really Keynesian, as they think and live as "In the Long Run, We Are All Dead". Thanks to Lord Keynes and his followers who simply didn't care about the future. They wouldn't live to see any economic ruin.

Our Congress is so corrupt it lacks the will and discipline to address our fiscal problems. All they think about is the next election. The idiotic democrats (and republicans) now talk about a second stimulus check, making ours a truly socialistic economy.

So, how long will this recession last? I just hope we simply can come out of it. I need more coffee...:-)

Don’t Buy What Wall Street Is Selling

We live in a debt ridden society and once in a while forest fires are a good thing to clear up the forest. We allowed too much worthless brush to creep in, now the burning will be intense until it clears up.

Like firefighters, the Fed can't put out the fire, but dig trenches only hoping to containi it. Well, we may need to simply let it burn.

The major risk to an out of control fire is high oil prices, which adds fuel to the fire (wow! pun intended). If we get a break from high oil prices for a while it may help the markets to re-align themselves without depression-era like crashes. Regardless, like surgery, it'll be painful but life saving.

This is all tough, a rough road ahead, but a good thing in the end.

Options Trader: Monday Outlook

Dear Mr. Davis,

I always look forward to your articles as you state your opinions based on facts WE KNOW. People state Peak Oil as a "fact", but how can one measure it?

I have a theory of my own: JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Bros and others lost their shirts with the mortgage meltdown. What a better way to recover their money using their favorite drug addiction -- derivatives -- to bet on oil? The key word here is BETTING. Who's is always predicting high oil prices? Who gains the most with such high prices? Hint: it's not Exxon Mobil, although they benefit quite a bit too. This run may continue for a while. Watch them shortening oil in a few months and making another obscene amount of money.

Thanks for your always enlightening articles!