junkyarddog

A Crude 10 Year Perspective: The DJIA, Oil and Gold

This article is awesome!! I just have one suggestion: since 1999 the dollar has lost at least 30% of its value; just compare it to the Euro if one wants to make it really simple. Then add inflation on top of it and the adjusted price of oil in 1999 would not present as large of a gap (hey: I know it's still large! :-)).

The author's main point still stands, I'm just making this suggestion to make the comparison more realistic.

One last point: oil can still be refined from tar sands and coal. Sweet crude is the only economical option for now, but there are plenty of more expensive "non-sweet" reserves. Again, I'm not trying to say we're not in an energy crisis, all I'm saying we still have time to fix this.

Best wishes,

Roger

Options Trader: Outlook for Turnaround Tuesday

Helicopter Ben looks now like a child's game, as the world managed to throw money around more than Ben could have ever dreamed. What will be the price to pay? Hyperinflation or deflation?

I think deflation, as if the US starts printing money, all our foreign investors will pull out. They're not stupid. Zimbawe is a case apart, as foreign investments in that country is near nil, so they can print all the money they want and... they did it.

In times like this is difficult to predict anything.

Options Trader: Thursday Outlook - How Much More Disappointment Can We Stand?

It's interesting that the market's psychology was similar when oil was >$140 and people were cock sure it'd hit $200 soon. When the dust settled (albeit perhaps temporatily), more realistic values return to market.

This time around I don't know what the DOW's "real" value is or should be. However, one thing is for sure: there's a lot of panic out there and as such it's hard to assess value on anything.

If it goes below 9K I imagine a lot of people will take their 401K's out of stocks and move it to money markets, perhaps compounding the sell-off.