junkyarddog

A Crude 10 Year Perspective: The DJIA, Oil and Gold

This article is awesome!! I just have one suggestion: since 1999 the dollar has lost at least 30% of its value; just compare it to the Euro if one wants to make it really simple. Then add inflation on top of it and the adjusted price of oil in 1999 would not present as large of a gap (hey: I know it's still large! :-)).

The author's main point still stands, I'm just making this suggestion to make the comparison more realistic.

One last point: oil can still be refined from tar sands and coal. Sweet crude is the only economical option for now, but there are plenty of more expensive "non-sweet" reserves. Again, I'm not trying to say we're not in an energy crisis, all I'm saying we still have time to fix this.

Best wishes,

Roger

Don’t Blame Wall Street - At Least Not Completely

It's hard to follow this article, the author is all over the place trying to look for a culprit. HAVE YOU EVER HEARD of D-E-R-I-V-A-T-I-V-E-S?

"These are your banks and they fund your life". I love them too: when they made billions with the housing boom I don't remember having a share of their profits. Now that they collapsed (google "derivatives") they want the taxpayers to jump in. No one needs that kind if funding.

I can't stand when amateurs write articles to Seeking Alpha.

Options Trader Monday Outlook: What a Way To Start the Week

I can't stand these weekend surprises!! The last surprise was in April of this year with the infamous Bear&Stern bailout. And now, I'm still trying to digest the meaning of the last event.

If I understand this correctly: we, the tax payers, now have to foot the bill for the corrupt and greedy investors/speculators who got us in this mess in the first place? Where's helicopter Ben?

The market is seeing all of these as good news. In the long run, we're paying for it. Same old news... how long can this go on?

This Rally Is Over, and Here’s Why

It's amazing that by just looking at charts one can predict the future and make bold statements such as "This Rally Is Over".

I wonder if there are other forces in life which could affect iron clad chart trends, and perhaps make "This Rally Is Over" sound a bit more uncertain.

Nah. Wishful thinking on my end.

Options Trader: Friday Outlook

Phil, I know you are a hard-core democrat, but to think Obama will inspire and bring change is nothing but betting on an unknown horse.

Plus, get used to it: McCain will win the election and the democrats better start writing an infamous book titled "How To Lose An Election It Was Ours To Take". You could write the foreword.

Note: I don't support McSame. I just think he'll win because the democrats simply blew it.

About oil: yes, we Americans consume less. But Asiam, notably China consumes more. Doesn't that make up the difference? So, in terms of global supply and demand we're still worse off than 2005. Aren't the oil producing contries the ones witholding supply?

Options Trader: Thursday Outlook

who: It's not only about commodities or automobiles. I was thinking more in terms of services, which get cheaper for America to sell out there. The US is having record exports and I'm not sure if it's a good thing to stop this trend.

Europe will hold off inflation (so they hope) but at what cost? Their already slow economy will be even slower. Then their unemployment will rise and they'll be risking an even steeper recession.

It's a tough choice, but personally, choosing between a) having a job with inflation or b) be unemployed with no inflation, I prefer having a job ("a").

I know economic purists, especially the gold bugs, think the job of the Fed ought to be only to protect the dollar, making it strong. Question: what good is a strong dollar in the middle of a depression?The Fed also needs to foster economic development and this balance is tough. I'll be the only American out there saying the absolutely outrageous, I even risk being lynched: given the circumstances I believe Barnanke is doing a good job. There, I said it. :-o

Options Trader: Thursday Outlook

Phil, I read your articles daily, with great interest. Reading what you have to say is the information I look forward most each day.

Allow me to take a "contrarian" view: the weak dollar being good for the US economy. The weak Japanese yen allowed Honda, who only manufactured motorcycles until 1968, to eat alive (destroy!) Detroit in the 70's and beyond. Why? They sold their cheap piece of junk Japanse cars and collected the sales in dollars, strong at that time.

A weak dollar boosts US exports and creates opportunities. Low interest rates keep things moving. The worst we can do now is slow even further our economy with higher interest rates AND increase unemployment. If people don't have jobs, yes, they won't buy oil, but... they won't pay for their mortgages either.

Now, ECB raised rates. What do you believe is going to happen? Stronger Euro, weaker dollar! Whose products then become more competitive in the market? America's.

A weak dollar raises the oil price - so they say -- but let's face it: fundamentals are not playing a role here. The dollar can go 1.30 to the Euro and the oil barrel price will stil increase. So, forget fundamentals there.

Thanks again for you incredible articles every day. You definitely make your readers think!

Options Trader: Tuesday Outlook

Phil, holly smokes, I just watched the video you mentioned in your post, "The Energy Non-Crisis". What is true and what is not? What is your view??

The speaker predicted in October 2007 that we'd paying 4 to 5 dollars for a gallon of gas "very soon". So, if this is all true, is there any way oil is coming down even though we have plenty of it (according to the speaker)?