junkyarddog

A Crude 10 Year Perspective: The DJIA, Oil and Gold

This article is awesome!! I just have one suggestion: since 1999 the dollar has lost at least 30% of its value; just compare it to the Euro if one wants to make it really simple. Then add inflation on top of it and the adjusted price of oil in 1999 would not present as large of a gap (hey: I know it's still large! :-)).

The author's main point still stands, I'm just making this suggestion to make the comparison more realistic.

One last point: oil can still be refined from tar sands and coal. Sweet crude is the only economical option for now, but there are plenty of more expensive "non-sweet" reserves. Again, I'm not trying to say we're not in an energy crisis, all I'm saying we still have time to fix this.

Best wishes,

Roger

Inflation with Gary North or Deflation with Mish?

Why do people even pay attention to Gary Norht? He predicted "the end of the world as we know it" several times, the latest being with the Y2K bug. I don't care what he is predicting now. Before that was banking crisis, nuclear war, soviet invasion, you name it.

Please, let's not waste our time with Gary North.

Who Owns the Gold

Very interesting article.

I wonder how much the balance of these reserves has changed over the past year since the world entered this financial crisis. I wonder if central banks are hoarding more gold (expected) or if they're seeking other types of reserves (other currencies, commodities).

Citigroup Sees Gold Reaching $2000

I don't know what it's going to happen to gold. What I know is that FUD (Fear Uncertainty Doubt) is the best seller. It worked well for oil for a while (i.e. peak oil theory, wars over oil, you name it). We see the same thing now being played on gold.

It's possible gold will rise, but it's also possible gold will drop as many people -- believe it or not -- still see safety in the US dollar. I just question the "author's" motive for this doomsday scenario, predicting even nuclear wars. A bit of desperate sales pitch, don't you think?

Options Trader: Outlook for Turnaround Tuesday

Helicopter Ben looks now like a child's game, as the world managed to throw money around more than Ben could have ever dreamed. What will be the price to pay? Hyperinflation or deflation?

I think deflation, as if the US starts printing money, all our foreign investors will pull out. They're not stupid. Zimbawe is a case apart, as foreign investments in that country is near nil, so they can print all the money they want and... they did it.

In times like this is difficult to predict anything.

Options Trader: Tough-Decisions Tuesday

I can't argue with the Big Dog; I'm not worthy... :-) He's right.

Options Trader: Tough-Decisions Tuesday

I've always been a big fan of these articles, but today Phil hit bottom. "DC Housing Bear" above said it all, what we need is fiscal discipline, not more of a socialistic society. Come on Phil! What are you thinking?? Are you panicking?

One can't fix this mess with a silver bullet. Forest fires are good, they burn the useless brush and make the surviving trees stronger. Failure is a necessity for success. It's going to be painful, and we'll come out a lot better and stronger once this is over. It'll be a while, but it will be over.

All we need is for the government to ensure FAIR PLAY, the rest is prosperity for the fittest and bankrupcy for the unefficient. That's life.

Please, no more government bailouts!

Options Trader: Monday Meltdown Watch

WeeklyTA, yes, I read your blog and you can't be wrong. As you've said, end of discussion.

Options Trader: Monday Meltdown Watch

Phil: you're the only analyst who has the right to brag for being spot on in your market analysis this year. You were alone on insisting on speculation when oil was at $146 (where are the $200-dollar-a-barrel-e... now???). You were [almost] alone about the bailouts back in April.

I can't wait for you analysis tomorrow after the fire has calmed down a bit (hopefully).

Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook

Phil, it's Interesting your prediction that oil will go back up to $130. What is your reasoning behind this since you were the first one to advocate it was a bubble? Is there another bubble being formed on oil / commodities?

Where Are Precious Metals Heading?

Gross Profits: Maybe just as good as your "useless" comment.

The gold bugs see the commodity go over $1,500 in one year and anyone who dares a contrarian position is the subject of their wrath. Jim Sinclair (JSMineset.com) will even bet $1 million dollars with you, just in case you haven't heard their bullish predictions loud enough.

I own gold stocks myself as a hedge, but I can understand the article's argument that 2/3 of gold commodity demand is down 55% and that "may" put downward pressure on the price (sorry gold freaks, just a different view. Wrong, perhaps, but just a view).

Good article.

Speculators Driving Up Commodity Prices? Hardly

The opinions shared here are more educational and informative than the article itself!

Where does Seeking Alpha get such moronic, paid-for, sponsored spin writers? Or do they allow such idiocy to be written just to get readers going?

Matthew Hougan' article above is an insult to human logic.