karmaguy

14 Comments

    • Beware of Sending Fannie and Freddie Stock to Zero [view article]
      Good points made by Captbob. From an investment point of view as to how you play this to your personal advantage, then one thing seems certain - no matter what the government does (and it will do something) the net loser must be the U.S. Dollar. Therefore, all those things that have gained in the past when the Dollar has fallen will be the ideal Longs as they have been for the past few years, Jul 13 11:24 AM
    • ETF Opinion: Extreme Bearishness Will Tell You When to Buy Again [view article]
      Gary, You may be playing a dangerous game of chance. By your own submission the Put/Call ratio as measured by the last 5 years of data has been recently hitting new all time highs. So, where's your buy-in point now? When it hits 1.00?? Let's say the S&P is trading at 1260 (March lows) at a reading of 1.00. Are you going to buy? But if the Ratio expands to 1.35 or say a new record of 1.45 then where do you think the S&P will be then. I'll tell you, 900!! Are you prepared to tell people to buy at 1.00 and then face that kind of potential loss? I think not! So what do you do? Buy some stocks when the Ratio hits 1.00, buy more at 1.10, more at 1.20, more at 1.30 and even more at 1.40? I think not! That would be like all those out there that have been trying to guess the bottom on the Financials. Jun 22 12:30 PM
    • The (Non) Crash of 2008 [view article]
      Maybe noboby seems to realize that the U.S. stock markets are losing "market share". Use the analogy of GM losing market share, a couple of decades ago it had 65% of the "market share". Today it's less than 30%. Same with the U.S.stock market. it's losing out to new capital markets, it's losing out to commodity diversification, it's losing out to Sovereign Funds investing their money in the purchase of whole companies rather than simply buying stocks. Yes, there is increased stock trading volume but that's trading, the simple fact is there is no new net inflow of capital anymore capable of propelling the U.S. market higher. Yes, you can have a lot of rotation from sector to sector but you can't have overall sustained growth without fresh capital.
      Will there be a Crash? What constitutes a Crash? Was the Nasdaq falling from 5000 to 1700 a Crash in 2001/2003? Is a Crash limited by time or by percentage lost or some combination of both?
      Most analysts won't stick their necks out to give you a direct answer as to where, when and to what levels the market will move. I am not one of them, So, in my opinion, here is my concrete analysis: The market will specifically fall to a low in September of 1075 as measured by the S&P. It will then rally a retracement of atleast 33% back towards it's original all time high, This retracement level will top out in December and then the market (S&P) will fall continuously in the year 2009 going to new lows (900 probable) reached in November/December 2009. That will be the bottom!       Jun 22 01:25 AM
    • Thursday Was a Huge Day for This Market [view article]
      Alan, i'm a market Top and Bottom picker so I'll give you my opinion. Get out of your longs until 3rd week in September and watch as the S&P hits somewhere between 1175 and 1223. Jun 07 02:29 AM
    • The Market Has Got Some Fight In It [view article]
      Finally someone who gets it! Did you know that 15 of the Dow 30 stocks are now at or within easy striking range of their January-March lows when the S&P was scraping along a bottom of 1260.
      Yes, I think your dead right, the 1260 S&P lows and Dow equivalent lows wil be tested and broken before the end of September.       Jun 03 08:56 PM
    • Compared with Canada, U.S. Economy Looks OK [view article]
      Thanks to everyone who contributed, some great thoughts and points of view.
      But I, as a Canadian economics writer, will be a bit more severe!. If Grace Cheng is basing her article on a bunch of Canadian government issued numbers compared to a bunch of American government issued numbers then there are two things that you can conclude right away. 1.) she knows nothing about economics and 2.) she knows nothing about Canada.
      Me thinks she is just trying to get her article piublished by using an outlandish title! Personally, I take offence.       May 31 11:31 PM
    • A Bull Market Correction or End of a Bear Market Rally? [view article]
      Aidis, the S&P500 will be at 1200 by end of September. Why are you long anything!!?? May 28 01:18 AM
    • Recession: The Forgotten Indicia [view article]
      To Felix Salmon: That you actually believe any statistic published by the government is in itself very scary. That would be like saying you actually believe that inflation is running at a 2.4% rate over the past year. Do you? May 26 12:10 AM
    • Recession: The Forgotten Indicia [view article]
      To Felix Salmon: That you actually believe any statistic published by the government is in itself very scary. That would be like saying you actually believe that inflation is running at a 2.4% rate over the past year. Do you? May 26 12:10 AM
    • Time To Abandon Stocks? [view article]
      To Gordon: Your right and your wrong! The Treasury is buying up the 10 year but they are printing money to buy them up. More printing means more U.S. pesos.

      To Britishsteel: There is no more gold held by either the U.S. in Fort Knox or by European Central Banks. They both sold it all off under the urgings of Paul Volcker a number of years ago. (P.S. If you read recently that European Central banks were selling off gold bullion don't be fooled - in actual fact they were selling gold bullion they have BORROWED from private individuals, corporations and countries that have it stored in their vaults - with a promise to repay those holders at a later date.). In the long run , as long as the U.S. maintains its current economic and financial policies Gold will not decline significantly or to any other degree against the U.S. currency.       May 25 11:50 PM
    • Is the US Dollar Doomed? [view article]
      Sorry I got a little off topic there. Back to the question of the US dollar?
      There's a new currency in play now in world. It's not the Euro or the Chinese Yuan, it's oil. Oil now trades like a currency. It is actively being traded like a currency. It has a bigger base than the European and Chinese currencies combined. Unlike other currencies, especially the U.S., you can't just print more of it and therefore everyone knows going in it's actual defined worth. Pretty neat currency - very efficient. And now for the first time you can exchange it for Goods or Services. (It goes like this for example " I buy from you 500,000 tons of wheat and pay for it with 50,000 barrels of oil). Ofcourse, you don't actually have to send them 50,000 barrels of oil just Certificates totalling 50,000 barrels - so you see I as the country or multi-national don't actually have to own the oil physically)( and I as the seller of the wheat don't have to worry that my currency is going to drop 5 % by tomorrow because the lender of last resort (US) decided to print a bunch more overnight). The U.S. currency now has some serious competetion and unlike gold it has a defined use and a defined rising and predictable demand.       May 25 11:20 PM
    • Is the US Dollar Doomed? [view article]
      Great Comments by all. I'm always interested in reading how Americans view their present social, financial and economic problems.
      A major problem I see is Americans inability to keep in check Special Interest groups (which have only one purpose and that is to corrupt the Federal and State legislators so that their intersts are fulfilled). For example, did you know that a number of years ago Brazil was faced with its own energy crisis and their government stood up one day in a single voice and said "We'll make every gas station in Brasil carry ethanol made from sugar cane and every car in Brasil will have the ability to operate on it and we'll do all of this in 7 years. (Basically, they accomplished it in 5)" Fast forward many years to present day USA. Ethanol in the U.S. is being produced now in tremendous quanities very inefficiently and 3 times the cost of the Brasil method (because we're using corn instead of sugar cane)(This, also, is having a great influence now on the price of other crops as farmers opt for the safety of a government-subsidized program and therefore plant fewer acres of other crops) AND WHY ARE WE USING CORN???????? Because 7 very wealthy families in U.S. have managed to Special Interest the Congress into passing protectionist laws in that sugar in US is protected from world prices and instead sells for some 3 times the world price.
      I'm not even taking into account that Congress won't demand that oil companies have their stations also provide ethanol or that car manufacturers structure car engines to run efficiently on ethanol. Today, if ethanol was made from world price sugar and available nationwide the price per gallon would be $2.00. Do you really think at those prices the US would have any economic interest in the Middle East!? Let's not even visit the question "What if 7 years ago George W. had have said "let's spend 1 trillion dollars on researching alternative fuel sources instead of spending it on some insignificant sand castle called Iraq." (Side question for my American friends: 45 years ago you spent billions of dollars and thousands of lives on a place called Vietnam and where did it get you in the end - 45 years from now will you be asking the same question about Iraq? Is not Vietnam today doing multi-huge business with the US despite what happened 45 years ago and do you honestly think that no matter who's running the show in Iraq they also will be doing business as usual with the US?       May 25 11:01 PM
    • Is the US Dollar Doomed? [view article]
      Great Comments by all. I'm always interested in reading how Americans view their present social, financial and economic problems.
      A major problem I see is Americans inability to keep in check Special Interest groups (which have only one purpose and that is to corrupt the Federal and State legislators so that their intersts are fulfilled). For example, did you know that a number of years ago Brazil was faced with its own energy crisis and their government stood up one day in a single voice and said "We'll make every gas station in Brasil carry ethanol made from sugar cane and every car in Brasil will have the ability to operate on it and we'll do all of this in 7 years. (Basically, they accomplished it in 5)" Fast forward many years to present day USA. Ethanol in the U.S. is being produced now in tremendous quanities very inefficiently and 3 times the cost of the Brasil method (because we're using corn instead of sugar cane)(This, also, is having a great influence now on the price of other crops as farmers opt for the safety of a government-subsidized program and therefore plant fewer acres of other crops) AND WHY ARE WE USING CORN???????? Because 7 very wealthy families in U.S. have managed to Special Interest the Congress into passing protectionist laws in that sugar in US is protected from world prices and instead sells for some 3 times the world price.
      I'm not even taking into account that Congress won't demand that oil companies have their stations also provide ethanol or that car manufacturers structure car engines to run efficiently on ethanol. Today, if ethanol was made from world price sugar and available nationwide the price per gallon would be $2.00. Do you really think at those prices the US would have any economic interest in the Middle East!? Let's not even visit the question "What if 7 years ago George W. had have said "let's spend 1 trillion dollars on researching alternative fuel sources instead of spending it on some insignificant sand castle called Iraq." (Side question for my American friends: 45 years ago you spent billions of dollars and thousands of lives on a place called Vietnam and where did it get you in the end - 45 years from now will you be asking the same question about Iraq? Is not Vietnam today doing multi-huge business with the US despite what happened 45 years ago and do you honestly think that no matter who's running the show in Iraq they also will be doing business as usual with the US?       May 25 11:01 PM
    • Toiling Over Bubble Troubles [view article]
      Oil Now trades as a currency. It's become an alternative to dealing in U.S. Dollars. Oil has always Settled in U.S. Dollars, but now there's a popular alternative "What ever you're selling me or I'm buying from you I'll pay you in barrels of oil". Ofcourse, you don't physically have to deliver oil, only Certificates of Oil. Oil as a new currency has a larger capitalization then all the Euros or Yen ever issed, only the U.S. dollar is larger. But who wants to settle in U.S. Dollars when they're printing it like the Mexican Peso of the 1970's.!!?? If you were a country or large multi-national won't you rather hold your currency reserve in Certificates of Oil rather than U.S. Dollars? May 24 01:25 PM
Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
Quick Links:
Contribute an Article Become a Seeking Alpha Contributor

Transcripts

More Transcripts»