Sophisse's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/197950/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/116784-twenty-two-years-of-job-creation-wiped-out-in-a-single-day?source=feed#comment-368256 368256 Wed, 28 Jan 2009 00:36:12 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/106435-yield-curve-near-10-year-highs?source=feed#comment-308498 308498
But I'm probably wrong.]]> Mon, 17 Nov 2008 22:57:54 -0500
But I'm probably wrong.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105626-defining-a-depression?source=feed#comment-304191 304191 Wed, 12 Nov 2008 12:41:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/103616-the-next-crisis-is-on-the-horizon?source=feed#comment-297645 297645 Mon, 03 Nov 2008 18:41:23 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/103408-where-have-all-the-peak-oil-believers-gone?source=feed#comment-297625 297625
You appear to be a trader. You get your information from the market and market wisdom. But if you're predicting the future of oil, surely some thought should be devoted to actual oil fields, consumption, etc.]]> Mon, 03 Nov 2008 17:52:34 -0500
You appear to be a trader. You get your information from the market and market wisdom. But if you're predicting the future of oil, surely some thought should be devoted to actual oil fields, consumption, etc.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99266-similarities-to-u-s-1937-japan-1998?source=feed#comment-278241 278241
You seem to be skipping over about 4 years. 1929-1933 was a period of severe deflation. The primary government response was to try to balance the budget, which meant spending cuts and tax increases since the tax base was eroding so significantly. This approach worked so badly that Roosevelt was elected to try a new approach.

While the stock charts may look similar, government response was strikingly different than it is today.]]> Thu, 09 Oct 2008 18:57:40 -0400
You seem to be skipping over about 4 years. 1929-1933 was a period of severe deflation. The primary government response was to try to balance the budget, which meant spending cuts and tax increases since the tax base was eroding so significantly. This approach worked so badly that Roosevelt was elected to try a new approach.

While the stock charts may look similar, government response was strikingly different than it is today.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96926-the-family-foresight-thought-experiment?source=feed#comment-262574 262574 Tue, 23 Sep 2008 12:25:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92191-the-strange-case-of-dr-gld-mr-bullion?source=feed#comment-238839 238839
Tom - you are incorrect. Read the prospectus, specifically "creation and redemption" on page 3, here: www.spdrgoldshares.com...

Only "authorized participants" can do this, not the ordinary joe who buys some GLD with his schwab account. Authorized participants are professional investors like banks, brokers, hedge funds, etc. By buying GLD, you are trusting those participants to arbititrage any difference between GLD and actual gold, by creating or redeeming shares.

If you can't trust banks, brokers, and hedge funds to want to make money for themselves, then yes you better own your own gold - and keep it under your mattress, because you never know when your local bank - or the government - or the illuminati - will steal the contents of your safe deposit box.]]> Mon, 25 Aug 2008 18:34:20 -0400
Tom - you are incorrect. Read the prospectus, specifically "creation and redemption" on page 3, here: www.spdrgoldshares.com...

Only "authorized participants" can do this, not the ordinary joe who buys some GLD with his schwab account. Authorized participants are professional investors like banks, brokers, hedge funds, etc. By buying GLD, you are trusting those participants to arbititrage any difference between GLD and actual gold, by creating or redeeming shares.

If you can't trust banks, brokers, and hedge funds to want to make money for themselves, then yes you better own your own gold - and keep it under your mattress, because you never know when your local bank - or the government - or the illuminati - will steal the contents of your safe deposit box.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92191-the-strange-case-of-dr-gld-mr-bullion?source=feed#comment-238744 238744
Why is this so certain? Because GLD is supposed to be tied to the physical gold spot price, which you can find in nice graphs here: www.kitco.com/charts/l... . And you can find historical prices for GLD at yahoo here finance.yahoo.com/q?s=... or wherever you like.

So look at them. Is there a discrepency? Answer: no.

I think it is an interesting question of why gold coins are out of stock while at the same time the spot price is down. Perhaps traders are selling while survivalists are buying? I'd be interested in the answer, but it has nothing to do with GLD.

If I'm wrong, please correct me!]]> Mon, 25 Aug 2008 15:44:36 -0400
Why is this so certain? Because GLD is supposed to be tied to the physical gold spot price, which you can find in nice graphs here: www.kitco.com/charts/l... . And you can find historical prices for GLD at yahoo here finance.yahoo.com/q?s=... or wherever you like.

So look at them. Is there a discrepency? Answer: no.

I think it is an interesting question of why gold coins are out of stock while at the same time the spot price is down. Perhaps traders are selling while survivalists are buying? I'd be interested in the answer, but it has nothing to do with GLD.

If I'm wrong, please correct me!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86582-a-glut-of-petroleum-products?source=feed#comment-212809 212809 - distillate inventory is ~9m bpd over average (about 7%)
- gasoline inventory is ~6m bpd over agerage (about 3%)
- crude inventory is ~35m bpd below average (about 12%)
]]> Wed, 23 Jul 2008 20:23:06 -0400 - distillate inventory is ~9m bpd over average (about 7%)
- gasoline inventory is ~6m bpd over agerage (about 3%)
- crude inventory is ~35m bpd below average (about 12%)
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85671-the-oil-bubble-will-meet-the-same-fate-as-tech-housing?source=feed#comment-208836 208836
Oil is not an asset, it gets used up by the final buyer.

Oil futures are assets. A bubble in oil futures would qualify as an asset bubble. But since oil futures expire into actual oil, such an asset bubble would necessarily be pricked at expiration time. For bubble students, this maps to the dutch tulip bubble centuries ago.

I'm not so naive as to suggest that futures prices have zero effect on spot prices, but the non-asset nature of oil is a critical aspect of this price rise that needs to be addressed by any bubble theory.]]> Fri, 18 Jul 2008 13:15:40 -0400
Oil is not an asset, it gets used up by the final buyer.

Oil futures are assets. A bubble in oil futures would qualify as an asset bubble. But since oil futures expire into actual oil, such an asset bubble would necessarily be pricked at expiration time. For bubble students, this maps to the dutch tulip bubble centuries ago.

I'm not so naive as to suggest that futures prices have zero effect on spot prices, but the non-asset nature of oil is a critical aspect of this price rise that needs to be addressed by any bubble theory.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85553-confirmatory-bias-and-oil-investing?source=feed#comment-208272 208272
I completely agree with your thought that all investors need to be concerned with confirmation bias, and I highly recommend The Black Swan for that concept and others. However it is a risk and pitfall that every investor needs to struggle against (with the possible exception of index investors).

I agree with you about the peak oil crowd, but the same applies to the oil bubble crowd.]]> Thu, 17 Jul 2008 23:08:14 -0400
I completely agree with your thought that all investors need to be concerned with confirmation bias, and I highly recommend The Black Swan for that concept and others. However it is a risk and pitfall that every investor needs to struggle against (with the possible exception of index investors).

I agree with you about the peak oil crowd, but the same applies to the oil bubble crowd.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85043-offshoring-is-a-dubious-policy-when-the-question-is-oil-drilling?source=feed#comment-206057 206057 Tue, 15 Jul 2008 11:47:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84628-dollar-hurt-by-geopolitical-concerns-and-high-oil?source=feed#comment-203143 203143 Fri, 11 Jul 2008 13:34:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84627-the-long-case-for-canadian-oil-sands-trust?source=feed#comment-203140 203140 www.sprott.com/peakoil... . As you can see, he saw this trend coming long before the current wave of excitement.]]> Fri, 11 Jul 2008 13:31:00 -0400 www.sprott.com/peakoil... . As you can see, he saw this trend coming long before the current wave of excitement.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84299-how-far-could-oil-prices-fall?source=feed#comment-203016 203016 Fri, 11 Jul 2008 11:21:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84280-when-energy-speculators-move-the-market?source=feed#comment-201812 201812 Wed, 09 Jul 2008 17:59:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84299-how-far-could-oil-prices-fall?source=feed#comment-201809 201809 Wed, 09 Jul 2008 17:57:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83946-crude-oil-seeks-iranian-black-swan?source=feed#comment-199914 199914
On the flip side, it is definitely possible to imagine a large positive black swan like a huge oil discovery somewhere. But the asymmetry is, the negative events can stop oil flowing overnight, whereas the positive ones start oil flowing after 3-6 years.]]> Mon, 07 Jul 2008 12:14:37 -0400
On the flip side, it is definitely possible to imagine a large positive black swan like a huge oil discovery somewhere. But the asymmetry is, the negative events can stop oil flowing overnight, whereas the positive ones start oil flowing after 3-6 years.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83959-the-after-hours-oil-scam?source=feed#comment-199897 199897
Here's my question: when the reasonable high-volume people get to work and start trading, why do they trade at those unreasonable bumped up numbers? Why don't the buyers just sit on their hands for a half hour until the unreasonable gains disappear?

Without an explanation for that, your theory doesn't hold too much water imho.]]> Mon, 07 Jul 2008 12:02:08 -0400
Here's my question: when the reasonable high-volume people get to work and start trading, why do they trade at those unreasonable bumped up numbers? Why don't the buyers just sit on their hands for a half hour until the unreasonable gains disappear?

Without an explanation for that, your theory doesn't hold too much water imho.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83695-oil-and-the-futures-market?source=feed#comment-198067 198067 Thu, 03 Jul 2008 12:24:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83590-oil-time-for-caution?source=feed#comment-197567 197567 Wed, 02 Jul 2008 19:05:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83546-iea-s-oil-market-outlook-off-the-mark?source=feed#comment-197254 197254
Yes they have revised their demand numbers down, based on higher oil prices which they didn't predict - but very very few predicted them to go as high as they did as quickly as they did, even energy bulls. Those that did can't post here because they are on a beach in Tahiti enjoying their fortunes.

"The IEA doesn't correctly take into account speculative demand."

But you and the Senate do?

"The IEA has, by the way, only an incomplete view about what is going on in global oil inventories"

But you and the Senate do. OK.]]> Wed, 02 Jul 2008 11:39:55 -0400
Yes they have revised their demand numbers down, based on higher oil prices which they didn't predict - but very very few predicted them to go as high as they did as quickly as they did, even energy bulls. Those that did can't post here because they are on a beach in Tahiti enjoying their fortunes.

"The IEA doesn't correctly take into account speculative demand."

But you and the Senate do?

"The IEA has, by the way, only an incomplete view about what is going on in global oil inventories"

But you and the Senate do. OK.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81955-the-great-oil-deception-part-three?source=feed#comment-196675 196675
The red line in the wikipedia graph was Prudhoe Bay. I'm sure offshore drilling can find another Prudhoe Bay or several, but a bump the size of the 80s bump isn't enough to change the current dynamics. I guess that's just my point of view heh. But the IEA agrees with me. /shrug.

Anyway, interesting times!]]> Tue, 01 Jul 2008 13:36:28 -0400
The red line in the wikipedia graph was Prudhoe Bay. I'm sure offshore drilling can find another Prudhoe Bay or several, but a bump the size of the 80s bump isn't enough to change the current dynamics. I guess that's just my point of view heh. But the IEA agrees with me. /shrug.

Anyway, interesting times!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83314-why-i-avoid-the-euro-zone?source=feed#comment-196369 196369
5 year Europe returns: 14.01% annually. 5 year US returns: 5.95%. Source: www.mscibarra.com/prod...

I'm not really sure what to say to you.]]> Tue, 01 Jul 2008 04:31:37 -0400
5 year Europe returns: 14.01% annually. 5 year US returns: 5.95%. Source: www.mscibarra.com/prod...

I'm not really sure what to say to you.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83264-bill-gross-to-president-obama-double-the-deficit?source=feed#comment-196368 196368 Tue, 01 Jul 2008 04:24:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79986-alt-energy-and-trading-green?source=feed#comment-194850 194850 Sat, 28 Jun 2008 15:43:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82806-time-to-buy-oil-yet-maybe-not?source=feed#comment-193397 193397 Thu, 26 Jun 2008 12:12:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82623-the-current-market-atmosphere-easy-money-hard-to-come-by?source=feed#comment-192787 192787 Wed, 25 Jun 2008 16:09:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82490-the-sun-s-rising-over-japanese-stocks?source=feed#comment-191825 191825
Still, I keep thinking about two things: one is, regardless of how efficient with oil they are, they still have to import it all. Second, their population is shrinking and aging faster than any other country on earth.

I'm concerned those factors will be a longterm drag, though I don't know how much in the shorter term.]]> Tue, 24 Jun 2008 11:53:30 -0400
Still, I keep thinking about two things: one is, regardless of how efficient with oil they are, they still have to import it all. Second, their population is shrinking and aging faster than any other country on earth.

I'm concerned those factors will be a longterm drag, though I don't know how much in the shorter term.]]>