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Whitehawk

Whitehawk
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  • The Tragedy Of AMD [View article]
    Ashraf,

    Haven't read your pieces in quite some time; been away from SA.

    Micron doesn't pay a dividend either, but due to demand, DRAM pricing, market share, (perhaps) acquisitions and a change in management, the share price has more than tripled - beyond what many expected.

    Not sure what your plans are, but why not apply for a job at AMD and help them turn the place around? Experience working in the semi industry would add to your cred, and who knows - maybe you can convince others to buy the company out, or start a company on your own, knowing the pitfalls. Cheers.
    Oct 20, 2013. 05:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold sell-off tied to single trade: Nanex [View news story]
    It would be useful to have disclosure on who sells large blocks of paper gold futures (or in general, large blocks of futures contracts that move/corner markets).
    Oct 11, 2013. 02:18 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Change coming to DJIA weighting? [View news story]
    The Dow and its additions/subtractions have considerable political influence - those vying for the addition likely lobbied heavily for it. A marketing tool if nothing else for the component companies and for street sponsors.
    Sep 10, 2013. 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coffee: A 3-Legged Idea [View article]
    Matt - you should cover the action in cocoa in your next installment. Major breakout with an uptrend, and the question is whether market fundamentals support a continued trend up (and why). Resistance at 2500.

    As for coffee, that head fake a few weeks ago when /KC traded up to 134+ intraday knocked quite a few out and there are less willing buyers after numerous attempts at a trend up. Next time might be the charm though. The question is what the real supply-demand picture is vs. attempts to control the market and prevent further price declines or to throttle price increases. Is Brazil's 33% enough?
    Aug 7, 2013. 09:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Cartel Shatters Profitability [View article]
    @redbaron: I suspect some trading houses with sell side analysts were not "caught unaware of this situation," and took their time issuing comments, as in enough time for the prop trading desks to set up some shorts. The credibility of analysts in terms of the range of numbers is uncertain. Do your own research and draw your own conclusions. This applies to other commodity sectors, not just ferts. Avoiding the market manipulations from all sides is quite the challenge to equity and commodity market investors.
    Jul 31, 2013. 12:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Cartel Shatters Profitability [View article]
    The author sounds like a short that has already profited from today's action.

    Did Uralkali's actions merit a 20%+ share price decline in the sector, or even greater declines going forward (which would fund the shorts)? Probably not.
    Jul 30, 2013. 11:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash And The Fertilizer And Agriculture Companies: Don't Panic Is Rule # 1 [View article]
    There is no mystery in the crude market - there is plenty of price manipulation, and it is high based on a number of factors. Whether ferts qualified for this same phenomenon or not is up for debate. The point is that a major supplier could decide to significantly undercut the price and create a similar situation. A good argument for being cautious in buying the producers at inflated prices. Might be a good idea to be patient and wait for lower prices. As for shorts in the fert sector: I'd like to see which trading houses who also issued analyst comments today were short and to what extent...and whether there was any advance indication of knowledge of Uralkali's actions. BTW, Uralkali is just doing what a distressed producer might do when faced with high debt and market pressure: undercut market prices (and in this case break with the 'cartel') to gain market share. Did this merit a 20% average drop in competitor share price? Probably not.
    Jul 30, 2013. 11:28 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash And The Fertilizer And Agriculture Companies: Don't Panic Is Rule # 1 [View article]
    It would be illustrative to see who exactly held large short positions in the fert sector prior to this announcement.
    This type of event could easily repeat itself in the crude market, leading to a significant share price decline of producers in one day.
    Jul 30, 2013. 05:38 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash turmoil 'a complete game changer' [View news story]
    This type of event could easily repeat itself in the crude market, leading to a significant share price decline of producers in one day. It would be illustrative to see who exactly held large short positions in the fert sector prior to this announcement.
    Jul 30, 2013. 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japanese Yen - From Par To $1.0350... And Why [View article]
    The /6J has been flat for the last month, showing little trending - on a day trading schedule one can pick up some small oscillations around the parity level, +/- 0.1. Matt is talking about stronger trending up as we saw into mid-June (10.5), which was followed by a sharp selloff. I don't see a clear trending in the technicals yet beyond 10.1 (excuse the decimal point convention differences - we have three of them going on here between the three of us). If you like trading +/-$1250 lots, and can hang a lucky swing for a while...however, I find trading this contract tricky at times. At the end of today 10.116 was rejected in the sep contract as sharply as it was approached. The relative flatline in /6J can continue while pairs sell off...my point above.
    Jul 25, 2013. 06:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed is likely to keep the full $85B QE program in place when it meets next week, writes Jon Hilsenrath, but on the table should be whether to refine its forward guidance, particularly whether to lower the 6.5% UE rate threshold for tightening policy. At issue is the Fed's desire to calm market worries over an imminent hike in interest rates. In the running for Fed chief, Larry Summers suggests the UE threshold might be too high. [View news story]
    The crash will be all that much more spectacular.
    Jul 25, 2013. 04:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japanese Yen - From Par To $1.0350... And Why [View article]
    Not sure when you wrote this Matt, but USDJPY and dixie getting sold off hard today, making any entry back into a long trade a wait and see. Technically, there is a downtrend from the May 103.72 high, with the 50d MA moving ever closer to the 100d. That is bearish, except we all know Abe is hell bent on keeping the JPY suppressed. Perhaps a better play is against a "stronger" currency than the USD. Another option is trading the JPY futures, but I have followed these and they can be as illiquid and risky as the NkD225s...for the last month the /6J has flatlined...
    Jul 25, 2013. 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold - A Final Push, Or Just The Beginning? [View article]
    Strong short-covering rally in paper gold, flirting with 50 day MA. If it can close above it, perhaps there is strength, but looking at the price action for other short-covering rallies in the last few months, caution...
    Jul 22, 2013. 02:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cocoa - Day 1 Of An Impending Reversal [View article]
    For now there seems to be a BTFD mentality to any commodity in dollar terms. Had one followed this for each tradable contract lately, say in the last month, it would have meant significant gains. Take that for what it's worth - there are floors that are maintained by the myriad of cartels out there. (ok - sugar might be the interesting exception, as it is hovering around its floor at 16 - much less global demand v. supply?)
    Jul 20, 2013. 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cocoa - Day 1 Of An Impending Reversal [View article]
    Cocoa in the past seemed to loosely follow the dixie inverse, but it isn't always a tight correlation, in fact in the last few months it went from more anti-correlated to much less correlated looking at a rolling corr coeff. Since March when it hit a local bottom, it has oscillated a few times, with swing trading gains. If the demand/supply is net bullish an upward sloping channel with continued swings might be expected, and this might best indicate entry exit levels.

    Coffee was a wild trip up and down (from 118 to 134 then back to 122!) in the last few days on news out of Brazil on infestations. One can never believe what is the real story though in this market: in 2012 it was noted that supply was hoarded by growers to drive up prices http://bloom.bg/12DG4SC (sound familiar-cotton, maybe?). Just earlier this month growers burned supply to protest low prices http://cnb.cx/12DG5pL. The infestation story was a nice short-term rumor for someone to make money, and the growers are doing everything they can to drive up the floor from 120 or so. The weak real has been a factor in the decline, but like cocoa, coffee hasn't shown much correlation with the dixie lately. I might warn that one can lose quite a lot in these markets given the volatility and lack of sense at times.
    Jul 20, 2013. 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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