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  • Calling Aug. 9, 2007 the "unofficial onset of the global credit crunch," Capital Economics marks the 5-year anniversary today. "Until the past few days, most monetary policy makers were emphasizing their concerns about mounting inflation pressures ... But that may be changing," wrote the WSJ on 8/9/2007. [View news story]
    Another credit crunch cannot be ruled out. The problem going forward is with higher grade sovereigns, agency paper and munis. All have been overbought, and have sovereigns and agency paper still has significant systemic "embedding" as collateral assets for carry trades. In the search for yield in a ZIRP world, investors have thrown even more money into high yield paper and ABS, with high yield indexes hitting highs just in the last days. Hiding out in these fixed income vehicles is not helping the economy, as creditors are not lending as much for more productive investments, given skewed risk-reward.
    Aug 8, 2012. 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's (MCD) reports that global comparable sales were flat for July, with sales in the U.S. down 0.1% after estimates called for a 2.2% gain. Similar sluggishness was seen in Europe and Asia, suggesting a broad loss of market share could be in play. Shares of MCD -3.1% premarket. [View news story]
    Down on margin squeeze expectations. They may have to raise prices, and then one asks how that affects opinion is that MCD is still overvalued.
    Aug 8, 2012. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Bullish On Nvidia Ahead Of Its Earnings Report [View article]
    What are the expected revenue adds (growth) and GMs from Kepler and Tegra 3 (I assume Tesla as HPC is high GM but not a huge portion of their potential revenue growth)? Will it be enough to boost outlook against competition? Is NVDA slow to compete on 28nm designs, regardless of wafer supply?
    Aug 7, 2012. 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Preview: Nvidia [View article]
    NVDA has had declining revenues and EPS over the last two quarters and is expected to reverse that trend in Q2, but with near flat growth Q2'11 to Q2'12 and declining EPS over the same period. Will they meet this, and what is likely to be their outlook? Is competition eating into their business? (I'm looking for greater viz, esp on outlook here)
    Aug 7, 2012. 07:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Game Still In The First Inning [View article]
    There are quite a few small start-ups out there bucking the trend of OpenStack and RAX. They have an uphill battle, and it will be interesting to see what becomes of them...
    Aug 7, 2012. 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today In Commodities: No Stopping Stocks [View article]
    Will be interesting to see if cocoa can repeat its run in early 2011. Shorting that high yielded a nice return.
    Aug 7, 2012. 07:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today In Commodities: Strong Start For Crude [View article]
    I've made money trading it in just the last complaints here.
    Aug 7, 2012. 07:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "We're on the verge of the next great bull market," BMO's Brian Belski believes, undeterred by deteriorating earnings growth and weak investor confidence. "Stocks lead earnings, which lead the economy," he says. "We think the stock market revival we've seen in the last several weeks is foreshadowing what's going to happen in the economy again... a recovery in the second half." [View news story]
    There goes that bubble-headed Brian Belski...

    (We all know that Cr@p is King)
    Aug 7, 2012. 06:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Priceline (PCLN): Expects total gross bookings to increase 10%-18% Y/Y in Q3, with domestic bookings 5% higher. Says its below-Street guidance reflects current operating trends as well as an assumption that economic conditions in Europe will deteriorate again. Shares -12.2% AH. (PR[View news story]
    Had to happen eventually. Similar expectations last earnings report...
    Aug 7, 2012. 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Knight Says About Other Alternative Exchanges [View article]
    I have no doubt that some rudimentary form of "AI" already is engaged...and it didn't help in this case. One has to ask why...
    Aug 7, 2012. 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Knight Says About Other Alternative Exchanges [View article]
    "What's incredible is that the NYSE saw this volume, saw these trade patterns repeating, and didn't even tell Knight until the script ran twice. Then both watched it run 4 more times before anyone could turn the damned thing off."

    A detailed accounting of what happened (those involved, script(s) engaged, interfaces/responses) is needed, not speculation. Still waiting.
    Aug 7, 2012. 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coming Deluge Of Facebook Stock Unlikely To Sink It Further [View article]
    The dilution in FB has not been fully priced in, and a short position is still profitable, especially today (down 5.5-6%).
    Aug 7, 2012. 06:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Essential Guide To Understanding And Forecasting The VIX And VXX [View article]
    Those IV levels can stay "undervalued," and the VIX (and especially the VXX) can trade even lower. Recall that the VIX during times of complacency and a grinding market on lower volumes has traded down lower from here, on a relative basis. I am long VIX puts, looking for a signal to exit and go long VIX calls again. Traders can also trade the VIX futures directly, as opposed to VXX, and better manage the roll costs, entry/exits.
    Aug 7, 2012. 05:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. June Consumer Credit rises $6.46B vs. $10B expected. It's the slowest pace of expansion in 8 months. [View news story]
    ZIRP can lead to declining or weak lending, as it distorts risk-reward for creditors. ZIRP doesn't directly affect consumer credit, but there are secondary, tertiary, etc. effects due to declining or weak lending "up the chain."
    Aug 7, 2012. 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boston Fed chief Rosengren pops onto CNBC to repeat his call for a new large-scale, open-ended QE program (he earlier told the WSJ the same). Again, Rosengren isn't a FOMC voter and his dovish views are to be expected, but he sits in camp with powerful members like Yellen and Dudley. [View news story]
    Frankengren is a true monster, with delusions that the printing press is a perpetual motion machine, and lacking skills to produce innovations that actually can boost real, tangible growth...
    Aug 7, 2012. 04:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment