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Whitehawk

Whitehawk
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  • Brazil's Bovespa tumbles another 3.8%, now back to 2009 levels, dragged down by a continued plunge in Elke Batista's OGX Petroleum (OGXPY.PK -24.8%). Not helping is today's report of a 2% decline in industrial production in May, about double the estimates. The good news is a drop in swap rates as traders place bets the central bank could stop hiking rates. The Brazil Index ETF (EWZ -3.6%), the Small Cap ETF (BRF -3.8%). [View news story]
    In Nov 2004 the iBov was trading at about 25K and the EWZ at $20. iBov has already lost about 40% from peak (72.5K) to last close (45.2K). The question is where the interim floor is. Looking at the chart it could be around 36.5K, the 2008 bottom.
    Jul 2, 2013. 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross' $268B Total Return Fund (ETF version: BOND) suffered nearly $10B in outflows in Q2 - the most in at least 20 years. The money exited as a bet on duration had the fund delivering a quarterly loss of 3.6% - the worst result since inception in 1987 and against a 2.32% decline in the benchmark Barclays index (AGG). Gross has been busy reassuring investors about the merits of long-term Treasurys (TLT). History says he's occasionally wrong, but never for long. [View news story]
    If you really want to bet on Gross' prowess try a timed buy and hold of PHK.
    Jul 2, 2013. 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The meme during the 70s was that gold and oil moved together. Consumers of today have no such luck as the bear market in gold is met by a crude market refusing to budge. WTI's (USO +1.6%) gain today has the lead month just under $100/barrel and the highest price in nearly a year. Egypt's maybe-crumbling government is as good of an excuse as any for the recent rise. The energy sector (XLE +0.1%) ekes out a gain as the broader market falls. [View news story]
    The upside fear trade today is the dixie and crude. Tomorrow is another day. (A meme is over generations.)
    Jul 2, 2013. 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Latest On The Brent / WTI Spread [View article]
    Made money shorting WTI futures today, but one has to be very quick on entry/exit. The options are safer exposures for a longer swing trade lower.
    Jul 2, 2013. 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Yen, The Nikkei, And The S&P 500: Watch The Trends And Correlations [View article]
    JPY futures melting down toward that 9.64 low of May.
    Jul 2, 2013. 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The Noise And Continue Accumulating Gold [View article]
    The problem with physical gold as money is that there is no efficient and liquid system in place to make it so. Lack of transparency in this market, wide bid/ask spreads on the buy/sell, etc. are all indicative of this. The stakeholders in the physical gold market that attribute emotion to the metal have not shown the metal to push for market improvements. Gold remains a volatile commodity, and the lack of transparency and illiquidity in the physical markets are clear issues. This is an impartial viewpoint of the facts, though one may be branded as a "hater" for even highlighting them. Imho such emotion does not belong in trading or investing.

    In the past when there were gold-backed currencies, the primary problem was cheating. Even when many thought the system was working as advertised, it wasn't, and in cases had to then be officially suspended. The unofficial suspensions are those rarely discussed.
    Jul 2, 2013. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Yen, The Nikkei, And The S&P 500: Watch The Trends And Correlations [View article]
    The rips in the USD/JPY, short JPY futures and NkD have interestingly come mostly after Japanese markets have closed in the last several sessions - a throttle for U.S. markets. No sharp moves up yet in the JPY futures.
    Jul 2, 2013. 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETFs are the market, says BlackRock (BLK) in an open letter responding to events of the past month which saw some ETFs trade at wide discounts to NAV. "ETFs are increasingly becoming the place where investors of all sizes can see the market price for a given investment exposure, and act ... the ETF price can become the true price for that market." WisdomTree (WETF) issued a similar response last week. [View news story]
    Larry Fink: I (want to) control the market.

    BTW - there are plenty of ETFs that trade above their NAVs - a much more likely condition than below.
    Jul 2, 2013. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Rebound In Commodities, Coal, And Coal Stocks [View article]
    With nat gas trading around 3.50 and in a downtrend the pressure on the thermal coal space will continue. The met coal space is challenged from too many producers and soft pricing - especially an issue for those miners with huge debt loads and poor management.
    Jul 1, 2013. 05:12 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The Noise And Continue Accumulating Gold [View article]
    From a trader's perspective, there is no "hate" or "love" toward gold (or silver), but simply a reading of the sentiment and technicals to decide where to trade next - direction, or range trade. Agnosticism or atheism toward any tradable commodity. Traders that have a mind toward fundamentals also make a point of knowing the scores there to factor into trading decisions. The point in trading or investing is to make or keep money, not lose it, no matter what that "money" is.

    This is an important perspective, even if we all agree that the current fiat currency system has quite negative and damaging features.

    If an international gold- or other asset-backed currency system is superior, the question is why don't we have it or why isn't there more of a push to promote it? (The OMFIF efforts haven't had much effect.)
    Jul 1, 2013. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm's Snapdragon 800: Wait Just A Minute... [View article]
    Look on Wikipedia under Snapdragon; you will find tables. Same for other SoC lines, such as those from Intel, nVid and AMD (see "similar platforms" under the Snapdragon 800 table). Can also find the same for dGPU lines from nVid and AMD. PowerVRs are tabled here: http://bit.ly/1295iHU.
    Jun 30, 2013. 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "It is time to break up Google (GOOG)," writes Richard Sennett of the London School of Economics. "The problem is simple: the company is just too powerful, as are Apple (AAPL) and many other big tech groups." Sennett harks back to when the Supreme Court broke up Standard Oil in 1911, when "an overmighty business was shattered into 33 shards." He also cites the progressives of a century ago, such as Herbery Croly, who believed that successful start-ups would extinguish competition and become monopolies. Breaking them up "would set talent free." [View news story]
    Antitrust populism rearing its ugly head.
    Jun 30, 2013. 03:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "It is time to break up Google (GOOG)," writes Richard Sennett of the London School of Economics. "The problem is simple: the company is just too powerful, as are Apple (AAPL) and many other big tech groups." Sennett harks back to when the Supreme Court broke up Standard Oil in 1911, when "an overmighty business was shattered into 33 shards." He also cites the progressives of a century ago, such as Herbery Croly, who believed that successful start-ups would extinguish competition and become monopolies. Breaking them up "would set talent free." [View news story]
    An economist telling Google how to manage itself...priceless.
    Jun 30, 2013. 03:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A record quarterly drop of 23% in gold prices in Q2 to $1,223.80 has exposed miners' massive debts, which have increased to a high of $21B at 55 top gold and silver producers from under $2B in the past 10 years. Gold has now become cheaper to buy than to extract for many firms. If prices stay below $1,300 for over two quarters, S&P reckons downgrades could be on the cards. Barrick Gold (ABX) is particularly exposed with debts of $14.8B. [View news story]
    The issue I have with many PM miners is that they enjoyed the ride up a little too much. Now they will be pressed to define what it really costs to mine gold, company by company, and those with too much debt and poor cost structures (and rich management consumption) will find tough roads ahead. Look for consolidation and for some to fail. Buy GDX instead of GDXJ - but expect further weakness and better entry points as the miners report losses and debt loads.
    Jun 30, 2013. 03:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Central banks sold a record $32.4B in U.S. Treasurys (SHY) in the week to June 26 - taking their holdings to $2.93T - for the third weekly outflow in the past four weeks. Meanwhile, bond funds tracked by data provider EPFR Global experienced total redemptions of $23.3B last week. The numbers provide some color to the sharp rise in Treasury yields since Ben Bernanke first signaled the Fed would start tapering QE. [View news story]
    Which countries are selling: clearly Japan, as the hard data has already shown. I surmise China as well. Rates are moving up and to maintain the spread values this was a timed sell.
    Jun 30, 2013. 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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