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  • Intel's Q3 Revenue Miss: A Fire Sale For Long-Term Investors [View article]
    Ultrabooks are still too expensive.
    Sep 7 03:00 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peter Schiff: Gold Priced For A Crash [View article]
    If the U.S. continues to be a safe haven, the dollar may well trade up much higher. This happened in the late 90s. A replay of that dynamic is likely to be much shorter this time, given the relative weakness of our economy compared to then, and the continued possibility of Fed monetary easing/intervention. Take advantage of dollar strength if it occurs.
    Aug 2 05:27 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The EPA issues a statement saying it's completed tests on drinking water in the Pennsylvania village of Dimock showing the water is safe to drink. Residents and anti-drilling groups had claimed that Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) had polluted the local aquifer through its gas drilling using highly controversial fracking methods. COG issues a reply, saying it's pleased with the decision, which mirrors similar findings from tests of its own, as well as those conducted by Pennsylvania state agencies.  [View news story]
    This is welcome news, given the media hysteria out there on NG fracking and how impressionable that's been on the uninformed.
    Jul 25 08:07 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If it's late afternoon and a down day, a Fed rumor can't be far away, and the WSJ doesn't disappoint, reporting the Fed is moving closer to action to spur growth. Key decisions could be made as soon as next week. The DJIA cuts its loss back to double digits.  [View news story]
    What Fed action will spur growth? Put up or shut up. We need real productive growth, not feint manipulative "promises" from monetary authorities.
    Jul 24 04:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Since the Court upheld Obamacare, small business owners have gone from denial to outright anger. Many entrepreneurs are focusing on figuring out what moves they can make to gum up the works and prove healthcare reform was a bad idea and offer a case study on why it will fail. Some of the top threats: Firing workers instead of hiring, stop providing health insurance altogether and pay the $2K penalty, or even going so far as to shutter their businesses.  [View news story]
    Private individual and small business group insurance will likely increase dramatically in the next year or two, even with the advent of "exchanges." That is not a positive development. Yes, small business owners responsible for buying insurance are looking at all the options.
    Jul 17 08:29 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Europe's Decline Ready For A Fall? [View article]
    Yes, this is a union that is ill-conceived and terminally broken. Some (utopians and profiteers among them) are determined to paste over the structural problems, fearing a "cataclysm" that is irrationally perpetuated. Those making contingency plans and preparing from a fiduciary standpoint are prudent. However, it appears socialism and wealth redistribution have permeated the minds of most, even the producers that will be picking up the tab for Greece, Spain, Italy, ....
    Jul 13 03:52 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ecopetrol And Petrobras: Barometers Of Colombia And Brazil's Economic Policies [View article]
    State run companies are not a compelling buy. PBR has underperformed all of its less-controlled peers, and may just drop to a level and stay there.
    May 21 06:47 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bob Wenzel holds no punches in a speech this week to the NY Fed: "The noose is tightening on your organization, vast amounts of money printing are now required to keep your manipulated economy afloat. It will ultimately result in huge price inflation, or, if you stop printing, another massive economic crash will occur. There is no other way out."  [View news story]
    Clearly wenzel doesn't believe in managed addiction...
    Apr 28 04:48 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Economy Is Producing Too Many Jobs [View article]
    There is a historical correlation between the change in nonfarm payroll and real GDP. Correspondingly, there is a correlation between the change in real GDP and private domestic investment (PDI). (Most) everything the Fed does thwarts the process for PDI to have a sustained increase. Yes, gov't fiscal, tax and regulatory policy enter into this as well, affecting PDI, but the Fed's ZIRP and market manipulations are counter-productive to an increasing PDI. Bernanke is following his ultimate political mandate to keep gov't borrowing costs low and Treasuries "stable." How long he can maintain that hedge is the question.
    Apr 1 01:17 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Ready to Sell in May? Sounds Like a Good Idea [View article]
    Note to the author: I looked at your inflation-deflation timer model a few months back (on your website writeup). I noted that you assumed Treasurys as the flight to quality in deflationary (or should I say disinflationary) markets, and asked then whether this asset class can be counted on as a haven in the future. With investors evidently (from trading data and action) looking for other havens and hedges away from Treasurys, have you formulated any alternatives? With interest rate risk many are loathe to flock to Treasurys in the event of equity/commodity market chokes, i.e., a repeat of May-Aug '10 doesn't look likely, with bond markets at greater risk of drifting lower.
    Apr 4 06:39 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Who Will Buy Treasuries When the Fed Doesn't? [View article]
    I noticed Mr. Gross talks a different game every month. His January and February letters were piercing and honest ("engaging in Ponzi like Quantitative Easing II"..."currency exposure other than the dollar"..."consequences of mindless U.S. deficit spending "..."to rebalance debt loads and re-equitize financial institutions that should have known better, central banks and policymakers are taking money from one class of asset holders and giving it to another"...etc).

    This latest missive spins toward noodle-y ambivalence "eliminating QE II, the Fed would be ripping a Band-Aid off a partially healed scab."

    Can't you make up your mind Bill? What a pol.
    Mar 7 04:53 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Metastasizing State-Bankruptcy Meme [View article]
    On the humor side, there are multiple google ads accompanying this article surrounding the topic "How to file bankruptcy."

    But seriously, while states may not declare bankruptcy and may receive federal bailouts (including printed Fed money), some munis will default and declare. After 2008, political bailouts are alive and well, despite the intense debate against rewarding failure, especially corrupt failure. Yes, we ought to continue to have the discussion about bailout vs. bankruptcy and not silence those among us (including myself) that believe in fiscal discipline and consequences.
    Jan 21 03:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Robert Shiller's 2020 Target for the S&P 500 [View article]
    Shiller's prediction supports the argument for active trading and investing over the next decade, over simple buy and hold, or index investing.
    Jan 2 12:38 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Iceland and Ireland followed different paths since the financial crisis. Iceland refused to guarantee bank obligations, defaulted on its debt, and devalued. Ireland did the opposite. Both entered severe recessions in 2008, but Iceland has returned to growth, while Ireland's pain is set to get even worse. Which was the better way?  [View news story]
    Iceland's gov't was not in a position to guarantee bank obligations:

    "Because Icelandic banks were disproportionately large compared to the country's economy -- their assets were once worth 11 times Iceland's total gross domestic product (GDP)-- the tiny country did not have the option of bailing out the banks and had to let them fail."

    If only "Too big not to fail" were the mantra elsewhere.
    Dec 7 06:57 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's the term for a legislative proposal that has less of a chance than "dead on arrival?" It could probably be applied to the deficit commission's idea of eliminating the mortgage interest deduction. Toll Brothers (TOL) CEO Bob Toll puts the odds of passage at "about zero to negative 5."  [View news story]
    'Toll Brothers (TOL) CEO Bob Toll puts the odds of passage at "about zero to negative 5." '

    And you can bet that Mr. Toll is lobbying for that outcome.
    Dec 2 06:27 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment