There is quite a bit of leverage in these markets. Hence the call by the CME to increase margin requirements on silver positions. That's good risk management, and it put reality back into the market.
Why Soros Is Probably Buying Gold Now [View article]
Mr. Soros is known for his legendary double-speak, especially with respect to capitalism vs. Marxism. His interest is to promote Marxism for everyone else, and keep capitalism to himself. And he is closer to the old Soviet modus than he realizes.
Time to Buy China, Copper, the Canadian Dollar and Oil [View article]
Is it really time to buy China? The article is vague on details. The anecdote below is helpful, but we'd all like more indicators. Won't Chinese exports slow even more to the US or have they bottomed?
On Mar 05 12:31 PM littlegenius wrote:
> I am a polymer scrap trader. We previously did 80% of our volume > to China. We bring in plastics, grind or bale them, and then pack > containers bound for China. Then we get paid via wire. China stopped > taking anything in September and did not resume until February, when > not coincidentally the Baltic Dry Index reversed. Prices for plastic > scrap have jumped twice the past 4 weeks for Chinese buyers. China > appears to be in recovery to us. We don't care if it is due to inventory > replenishment. Prices and volume on plastic scrap have been moving > up quickly. We believe a Chinese reversal has been underway for > at least a month. Good luck to you all.
Market recap: It was quite a day for the tea-leaf readers. Stocks spiked early on release of Bernanke’s prepared testimony, then began to fade as he seemed to break with the dovish tone during his Q&A, and then turned red as the Fed meeting minutes indicated a bit of a dilemma over when to taper. Gold futures, up more than 1% early, finished negative. The dollar rallied; Treasurys fell, lifting 10-year yields to 2%. [View news story]
I would counter that by saying that tumblr has a low barrier to entry, targeted toward "entry-level" blogging driven by visual media. I stand by my comment that $1.1B was way overpriced. Who was the negotiator?
Rumored WSJ Piece 'Fed Maps Exit From Stimulus' No Joke After All [View article]
Prediction: to be followed by timely dovish rhetoric. Bernank-Yellenomics.
(Shame on Yellen after she wrote such beautiful pieces on "prudential risk management.")
Yes, they could do the right thing and take any pain now, reducing those risk mispricing purchases. Even the balance sheet could theoretically be reduced after rates "normalized." I'd buy the debt at much higher rates.
Apple (AAPL): FQ2 EPS of $10.09 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $43.6B (+11% Y/Y) beats by $1.1B. 37.4M iPhones, 19.5M iPads, just under 4M Macs. Expects FQ3 revenue of $33.5B-$35.5B, below $39.3B consensus. Buyback increased by $50B. Shares halted. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR) [View news story]
Msft did so a few years ago - how would it have been better? Appl should have found a productive use of the money.
I'm amused by all the conspiracy and manipulation theories abound; Imho the action has been no different from sharp selloffs in the past, plagued somewhat by margin calls in correlated trades, naked shorting, and cascading through stop-loss and strike pinball action. Naked shorting (fails to deliver) occurs elsewhere, and exacerbates losses, as witnessed in the financials in 2007/8. I've written about this when some claimed economic terrorism, another conspiracy from that day. At the end of the day, the markets have manias, panics and crashes - read your Kindleberger or Sornette - and credit markets can progress to the Ponzi finance stage - read your Minsky. Those who see the signals and plan accordingly are the sensible ones, and save themselves pain, and perhaps even gain.
For example, on April 5, I called for $22 silver (here: http://seekingalpha.co...), noting that the short covering was thin. From correlation, this corresponds to $1275-$1375 in gold. Indeed, it happened. In the mid-point of the next week, GS made their call on gold, and the rest is history. Manipulation? On April 8 (here: http://seekingalpha.co...) I reiterated the silver call, and mentioned that if there really is perceived manipulation, market participants might want to leave the market (read that as loosen up on positions). Many should have: sell at $28 and buy back at $22, and early in the session on Tues. April 16 silver indeed hit exactly $22 in the futures ($1321.5 gold bottom). Do I know something others don't? Am I part of the conspiracy? Nope. Just an experienced trader.
I'll repeat some things I've written in the last few days on gold:
1. Myth: GLD is not a paper product. Reality: Really? It can be naked shorted. Myth: Gold dealers have your best interests in mind. Reality: Really? Will they sell you what they have under the table or make you beg for it? Will they buy what you have at a fair price or low bid you and make you grateful for what you get? Do they negotiate honestly? Paper printers and gold bugs. Neither have the higher ground. (I don't claim it either. I'm just a BS detector.) Let 'em both fight it out while the rest of us move on productively. Neither care about sound money!
2. Said by some: "Gold is the only TRUE money." My response: If so, it has lousy stability. That is not a desirable property of sound money. Those advocating a gold standard must make a better effort at convincing the markets of the merits - or viable alternatives.
I will add: Mises et al. (including Rothbard) supported sound money and credit (read the last four words in bold, again: sound money and credit). That is not what we have with gold, and going forward, there are risks to currency and credit markets that point toward destabilization. Is it possible to ever have stable systems? I think so, but User 353732 points to some interesting questions having to do with nonlinearities and nonequilibria that can be disruptive - and not necessarily exogenous, but endogenous. If the Fed was truly exogenous and QTM worked as advertised, we wouldn't have a problem, would we?
We should be working toward sound money and credit, and if that means that the central planning of a monopoly central banking model doesn't promote that over time, then it needs to go.
Meanwhile, the markets are also a speculative casino and always have been. Read your Jesse Livermore.
Why Forex Traders Need To Care About Gold's Collapse [View article]
1. "There's no need to worry about inflation until there are significant and sustainable signs of growth." <<With a plethora of dollars hot flowing back to the U.S. it is naive not to be cognizant of asset price inflation, which can pop up in numerous places affecting everyone.>>
2. "Be worried about the slowdown in China and the U.S." <<I'm not worried about a slowdown in China. Their GDP surpassed Japan's, and will be compounding.>>
3. "Beware of how quickly losses can occur when key levels and stops are taken out." <<Or when the trends are exploited by large block trading.>>
We will be lucky if the dollar maintains its strength. I've profited on that, but I am doubtful this strength will remain. A strong stable currency is a reflection of a healthy economy, and cannot be achieved via artificial manipulation.
This Gold Slam Is A Massive Wealth Transfer From Our Pockets To The Banks [View article]
Myth: GLD is not a paper product. Reality: Really? It can be naked shorted. Myth: Gold dealers have your best interests in mind. Reality: Really? Will they sell you what they have under the table or make you beg for it? Will they buy what you have at a fair price or low bid you and make you grateful for what you get? Do they negotiate honestly?
Paper printers and gold bugs. Neither have the higher ground. (I don't claim it either. I'm just a BS detector.) Let 'em both fight it out while the rest of us move on productively. Neither care about sound money!
This Gold Slam Is A Massive Wealth Transfer From Our Pockets To The Banks [View article]
@WMarkW: Agree, when the naked shorting spree starts again, watch out below. How many stop losses will be triggered? How many strikes? This is a nasty game indeed. But so is the inflated melt-ups via rapid hot money flows. The exchange traded markets are a casino. Physical PM markets have their own flaws.
Commodity Chart Of The Day: Silver - $26 Is The Line In The Sand [View article]
Look back at what I said last Friday...$22 target. Yes, this may be an overshoot to the downside, but $26 has been breached.
Another reiterated point: the PM futures market is also being influenced by margin calls that are happening from other trades, namely those associated with the JPY and numerous carry trades. This volatility from stressed trades creates selloffs in other asset positions, such as gold and silver. Copper was also in free fall today.
Commodity supercycle over? Look at where NG closed - on relative high and the chart looks extremely bullish.
Good call on cocoa Matt. You do have a winner there.
Ashraf, Intel has never succeeded in getting into markets it doesn't understand or have critical mass in. Intel even failed at getting into the networking components business over a decade ago, losing the $2B+ it invested in Level One. The internet TV set-top box is a non-starter, as it is a crowded market for getting content off the internet, and for free, at that. Do try XBMC, if you haven't.
Why Silver Just Went Hyperbull [View article]
Why Soros Is Probably Buying Gold Now [View article]
Time to Buy China, Copper, the Canadian Dollar and Oil [View article]
On Mar 05 12:31 PM littlegenius wrote:
> I am a polymer scrap trader. We previously did 80% of our volume
> to China. We bring in plastics, grind or bale them, and then pack
> containers bound for China. Then we get paid via wire. China stopped
> taking anything in September and did not resume until February, when
> not coincidentally the Baltic Dry Index reversed. Prices for plastic
> scrap have jumped twice the past 4 weeks for Chinese buyers. China
> appears to be in recovery to us. We don't care if it is due to inventory
> replenishment. Prices and volume on plastic scrap have been moving
> up quickly. We believe a Chinese reversal has been underway for
> at least a month. Good luck to you all.
Market recap: It was quite a day for the tea-leaf readers. Stocks spiked early on release of Bernanke’s prepared testimony, then began to fade as he seemed to break with the dovish tone during his Q&A, and then turned red as the Fed meeting minutes indicated a bit of a dilemma over when to taper. Gold futures, up more than 1% early, finished negative. The dollar rallied; Treasurys fell, lifting 10-year yields to 2%. [View news story]
Yahoo's (YHOO) board has approved a $1.1B all-cash deal to acquire Tumblr, the WSJ reports. (previous) [View news story]
Yahoo's (YHOO) board has approved a $1.1B all-cash deal to acquire Tumblr, the WSJ reports. (previous) [View news story]
Rumored WSJ Piece 'Fed Maps Exit From Stimulus' No Joke After All [View article]
(Shame on Yellen after she wrote such beautiful pieces on "prudential risk management.")
Yes, they could do the right thing and take any pain now, reducing those risk mispricing purchases. Even the balance sheet could theoretically be reduced after rates "normalized." I'd buy the debt at much higher rates.
Apple (AAPL): FQ2 EPS of $10.09 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $43.6B (+11% Y/Y) beats by $1.1B. 37.4M iPhones, 19.5M iPads, just under 4M Macs. Expects FQ3 revenue of $33.5B-$35.5B, below $39.3B consensus. Buyback increased by $50B. Shares halted. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR) [View news story]
Gold: Where Are We Now? [View article]
I'm amused by all the conspiracy and manipulation theories abound; Imho the action has been no different from sharp selloffs in the past, plagued somewhat by margin calls in correlated trades, naked shorting, and cascading through stop-loss and strike pinball action. Naked shorting (fails to deliver) occurs elsewhere, and exacerbates losses, as witnessed in the financials in 2007/8. I've written about this when some claimed economic terrorism, another conspiracy from that day. At the end of the day, the markets have manias, panics and crashes - read your Kindleberger or Sornette - and credit markets can progress to the Ponzi finance stage - read your Minsky. Those who see the signals and plan accordingly are the sensible ones, and save themselves pain, and perhaps even gain.
For example, on April 5, I called for $22 silver (here: http://seekingalpha.co...), noting that the short covering was thin. From correlation, this corresponds to $1275-$1375 in gold. Indeed, it happened. In the mid-point of the next week, GS made their call on gold, and the rest is history. Manipulation? On April 8 (here: http://seekingalpha.co...) I reiterated the silver call, and mentioned that if there really is perceived manipulation, market participants might want to leave the market (read that as loosen up on positions). Many should have: sell at $28 and buy back at $22, and early in the session on Tues. April 16 silver indeed hit exactly $22 in the futures ($1321.5 gold bottom). Do I know something others don't? Am I part of the conspiracy? Nope. Just an experienced trader.
I'll repeat some things I've written in the last few days on gold:
1. Myth: GLD is not a paper product.
Reality: Really? It can be naked shorted.
Myth: Gold dealers have your best interests in mind.
Reality: Really? Will they sell you what they have under the table or make you beg for it? Will they buy what you have at a fair price or low bid you and make you grateful for what you get? Do they negotiate honestly?
Paper printers and gold bugs. Neither have the higher ground. (I don't claim it either. I'm just a BS detector.) Let 'em both fight it out while the rest of us move on productively. Neither care about sound money!
2. Said by some: "Gold is the only TRUE money." My response: If so, it has lousy stability. That is not a desirable property of sound money. Those advocating a gold standard must make a better effort at convincing the markets of the merits - or viable alternatives.
I will add: Mises et al. (including Rothbard) supported sound money and credit (read the last four words in bold, again: sound money and credit). That is not what we have with gold, and going forward, there are risks to currency and credit markets that point toward destabilization. Is it possible to ever have stable systems? I think so, but User 353732 points to some interesting questions having to do with nonlinearities and nonequilibria that can be disruptive - and not necessarily exogenous, but endogenous. If the Fed was truly exogenous and QTM worked as advertised, we wouldn't have a problem, would we?
We should be working toward sound money and credit, and if that means that the central planning of a monopoly central banking model doesn't promote that over time, then it needs to go.
Meanwhile, the markets are also a speculative casino and always have been. Read your Jesse Livermore.
Why Forex Traders Need To Care About Gold's Collapse [View article]
2. "Be worried about the slowdown in China and the U.S." <<I'm not worried about a slowdown in China. Their GDP surpassed Japan's, and will be compounding.>>
3. "Beware of how quickly losses can occur when key levels and stops are taken out." <<Or when the trends are exploited by large block trading.>>
We will be lucky if the dollar maintains its strength. I've profited on that, but I am doubtful this strength will remain. A strong stable currency is a reflection of a healthy economy, and cannot be achieved via artificial manipulation.
This Gold Slam Is A Massive Wealth Transfer From Our Pockets To The Banks [View article]
Reality: Really? It can be naked shorted.
Myth: Gold dealers have your best interests in mind.
Reality: Really? Will they sell you what they have under the table or make you beg for it? Will they buy what you have at a fair price or low bid you and make you grateful for what you get? Do they negotiate honestly?
Paper printers and gold bugs. Neither have the higher ground. (I don't claim it either. I'm just a BS detector.) Let 'em both fight it out while the rest of us move on productively. Neither care about sound money!
This Gold Slam Is A Massive Wealth Transfer From Our Pockets To The Banks [View article]
Commodity Chart Of The Day: Silver - $26 Is The Line In The Sand [View article]
Another reiterated point: the PM futures market is also being influenced by margin calls that are happening from other trades, namely those associated with the JPY and numerous carry trades. This volatility from stressed trades creates selloffs in other asset positions, such as gold and silver. Copper was also in free fall today.
Commodity supercycle over? Look at where NG closed - on relative high and the chart looks extremely bullish.
Good call on cocoa Matt. You do have a winner there.
Should Intel Sell Its Own Phones? [View article]
Here's What Happened The Last Time The Fed Owned All Outstanding Treasuries [View article]