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markb

markb
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  • Lululemon's Turnaround Strategy Is Showing Results But Some Concerns Remain [View article]
    "Average sales per sq ft slipped...as customers spent less money on LULU's products amid falling traffic."

    Your statement above seems like a somewhat lazy explanation for change in sales/sq ft. LULU revenue was actually up 31% from year ending 2/13 to year ending 2/15. Decline in sales/sq ft could be explained by more sq ft or robust on- line sales.
    May 8, 2015. 02:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ahead Of Keurig Green Mountain's Q2 2015 Results Turmoil Surfaces [View article]
    I don't blame KO for not anticipating the behavior of other investors. I do believe KO knows more than others, has significant dollars involved and has high quality rational management. I'm reading your article with an open mind. A point of concern is that KO's behavior seems inconsistent with your thesis. A possible explanation would be that insider KO has a more positive view than recent sellers for some reason. Not being an insider I don't know the reason.

    A similar situation occurred with LULU not long ago when the outlook for the company looked bleak and PE Advent came in at the then market price in the low 40's. I argued at the time that getting in at the PE price would prove to be a bargain even though there was limited visibility at the time. LULU is now at 65.

    I think your article is sound, given the information available. But the inconsistency between your perspective and KO's action could indicate they are acting on information not available to you and I.
    May 5, 2015. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: Too Little, Too Late? [View article]
    This plan will milk the company of value for a few years and delay the financial impact of the fundamental issues until just after Easterbrook cashes out.
    May 5, 2015. 11:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ahead Of Keurig Green Mountain's Q2 2015 Results Turmoil Surfaces [View article]
    Between alumnus Brian Kelley, the minority investment and the joint project, it seems like KO would have significant insider insight into GMCR prospects. If things are so bleak as suggested by this article, why are they jumping in and increasing their stake?
    May 5, 2015. 11:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's Earnings Prediction: Happy Times Not Forthcoming For The Golden Arches [View article]
    Good summary...I agree. I liked the yield, but now I'm out. In view of all the bad news surrounding this company, I would attribute the stable stock price to investor infatuation with dividends. But those dividends are dependent on the health of the underlying business which is not good. MCD needs to bite the bullet on a multi-year reengineering with some serious ideas. Current franchisee complete lack of confidence is particularly troubling. Easterbrook should do a couple kitchen sink restructure quarters and save the ship rather than throw patches on the increasing number of leaky holes.
    Apr 21, 2015. 02:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's tests all-day breakfast in San Diego [View news story]
    Ok idea but if this is the best they have considering all their issues, that's worrisome.
    Apr 21, 2015. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amex: It's Time For Management To Get Aggressive [View article]
    So, because the stock market had a knee jerk reaction to Amex doing the right thing and exiting some unprofitable cobrands, you say (actually unnecessarily repeat) they should "get aggressive", meaning panic and take more credit risk. And rather than retain more capital to support those new risky assets as required by BIS, etc. , you suggest they increase buybacks, increase leverage and roll the dice on even more risk.

    That advice is everything that is wrong with Wall St and the complete anti-Buffett.
    Apr 20, 2015. 04:48 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon Athletica Doesn't Look Like A Rewarding Bet At Current Prices [View article]
    I'm surprised George had the hutzpah to write this after saying LULU was overpriced on 8/8/14 ($40) and again on 1/8/15 ($55). Now its $69. Glad I ignored him earlier. How about a little accountability for the terrible calls?
    Apr 12, 2015. 08:31 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fashion brands called out for missing plus-sized sales [View news story]
    If companies thought catering to fat girls was profitable, they would do it. Its called free market capitalism. I wonder how much Mason weighs.
    Apr 12, 2015. 08:21 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon: Will Likely Remain Flat For Remainder Of 2015 In Fair Value Scenario [View article]
    Its not clear how this valuation was created, but typically a DCF time horizon ends beyond high growth at a point where capex and wc have stabilized and CF approaches NI.

    Here's my back of the napkin: if LULU grows at the rate he suggests it will be awarded at least a 25 PE in 2018 making it a $100+ stock. What would investors be willing to pay for that now?
    Mar 31, 2015. 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Target to pay $10M data breach settlement [View news story]
    Lol. The average payout is $.09/victim. Nice job Target lawyers!
    Mar 19, 2015. 07:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett Financial Analysis Template: AXP [View article]
    Your argument regarding customer behavior appears to be pure speculation. AXP card members like their cards. Even if their cards are phone images and not actual plastic. Its not clear the DOJ will prevail, but if they do, its not clear merchants will want to piss this important group off by treating them like they don't want their business.

    Regarding Costco, I've had it with those guys. I need to buy a special card to get in, I need a different special card to pay and I need to get searched on the way out? Those guys make the TSA look customer-friendly. I'm back to TGT with my AXP...I don't need 48 toilet paper rolls at a time anyway.
    Mar 16, 2015. 11:02 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Low Prices Will Continue To Impact Deere Through The Year [View article]
    Crop prices will eventually rise like oil prices will eventually rise, but eventually might be a long time. Why roll the dice now? Large current divergence between corn prices and DE stock indicates investors have not baked in current crop pricing. Better opportunities elsewhere.
    Mar 16, 2015. 04:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • M&A chatter lifts Keurig and SodaStream [View news story]
    SODA takeover rumors again? Funny!
    Mar 11, 2015. 10:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Consider Buying Deere Again? [View article]
    Despite your commentary, your chart of DE stock price and corn prices appears to show a significant correlation up to two years ago and more recently the largest divergence in the last 15 years. Maybe the divergence can be explained by the Fed-induced DWRV (dividends without regard to value) trend. Tempting short at $90.
    Mar 11, 2015. 10:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
494 Comments
604 Likes