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  • Lululemon: My Assumptions In Levered Returns' Valuation Model Suggest Cramer Is Right [View article]
    Yeah, I played with it. Using a 6% terminal growth rate and a 10% WACC gets you a stock price of 60.
    Sep 15 04:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon Earnings Preview: The Growth Story Is Officially Over [View article]
    Your thinking is only as good as your data. Advent has better data.
    Sep 11 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon Earnings Preview: The Growth Story Is Officially Over [View article]
    Advent buying at 42 was a big big flashing green light go signal backed by cash, not opinion. I'm surprised more investors didn't jump on it.
    Sep 11 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Keurig 2.0 Is Leaving A Bitter Taste In People's Mouths [View article]
    Kind of hard to reconcile GMCR's 70% YTD stock price increase with your bleak assessment. That knockoff users are whining because their scam has become more difficult does not mean 2.0 is a failure, in fact it might be a good thing they are feeling pain since GMCR doesn't want them as customers anyway.
    Sep 11 09:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon: Looking For A Reason To Get Excited Again [View article]
    "With Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) scheduled to report earnings Thursday morning, the question remains what should investors do ahead of the call if anything?"

    Not that this article was particularly insightful, but if your objective was the above why would you publish it too late for investors to act?
    Sep 11 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon Earnings Preview: The Growth Story Is Officially Over [View article]
    What odd timing for this article. You would think it would be published before the close, when readers could act, or after the release, when the new data could be processed.
    Sep 11 12:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon Is Getting Cheaper By The Day [View article]
    Really should cut back on the word "main". There is no evidence that LULU has a maligned reputation due to recalls that happened in early 2013, let alone that is their main problem. There is no evidence that Wilson's comments about plus sized women had a lasting if any negative reputation effect. And there is no evidence governance issues are dragging down the stock price...Advent's purchase at 42 should be viewed as a plus.

    I believe LULU has value at the current price (long LULU$40C2/16). I also think they have challenges: supply chain, product design, competition, men's, international. This article misses those challenges and incorrectly identifies the "main" ones.
    Sep 5 04:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Lululemon Redeem Itself? [View article]
    To answer your question, no. I would prefer to trust Advent PE who bought $845mm at 42.
    Sep 2 01:59 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Keurig 2.0 Comes With A Bevy Of Risks For Keurig Green Mountain [View article]
    I understand the point of this article is to highlight risks, but I think a more balanced approach would be to also highlight the upside. If the 2.0 flies it will severely limit the knock-offs which may be why we saw the Kraft deal today which brings in some blockbuster brands: Maxwell House, Gevalia, Yuban and McCafe. And the inability to make a carafe has been the number one non-price objection to a Keurig which suggests lots of people with money are now fair game to buy a brewer.

    Regarding the restrictions, with 2.0 you can't use knock offs and you can't build your own K's. Not sure what data supports your assertion there are millions that build their own K's, but in any event, why should GMCR care? Neither one of those groups makes any money for them. Good riddance.

    I'm excited about K2.0 and will be buying one next week!
    Aug 22 04:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain Showed A Strong Q3 2014 And Emphasized A Strong Full Year Outlook [View article]
    Good article. Seth, could you address GMCR plans for their other brewers post 2.0? Will the existing line be eliminated, undermarketed or business as usual? I would think that decision would strongly the influence the 2.0 adoption rate.
    Aug 18 05:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon: A Slightly Different Angle, Which Reveals A Few Upside Opportunities [View article]
    High ROE is impressive considering they don't get there by leverage.
    Aug 18 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Really A Surprise That SodaStream Is Yet To Be Acquired? [View article]
    Good question. Perhaps potential suitors are limiting their risk by waiting to evaluate the K-Cold rollout. Or maybe GMCR/KO has told them K-Cold will be an open system, so they plan to sell pods there like SBUX does now with coffee. No beverage exec wants to be known as the guy who bought the Betamax of soda makers.
    Aug 18 02:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Life Gives You Lemons, Don't Buy Lululemon [View article]
    The single new item presented here ("many of lululemon's customers characterize themselves as, "strong women," and view lululemon's brand as tarnished now") is presented without a shred of evidence. On the one hand is Advent, experienced PE guys with a history with LULU making a $845mm bet at $42. On the other hand, this undergrad's old news "argument". Hmm.

    Long LULU.
    Aug 18 09:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain Hopes Coffee Costs Don't Put Share Price To Sleep [View article]
    The last time GMCR raised prices in response to green coffee they had a windfall when those costs went back down. Commodity cost is cyclical and pricing is generally one way which eventually will work in their favor.
    Aug 17 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why GlaxoSmithKline Is A Tempting Buy [View article]
    Would PFE have a tax inversion opportunity with GSK?
    Aug 14 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment