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  • 2 Merger Opportunities: Keurig Green Mountain And RealD  [View article]
    I think any individual investor long GMCR now is picking up nickels in front of a steamroller. Maybe in an arb fund with dozens of other deals, but as a one-off play too risky.
    Feb 4, 2016. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WhiteWave Foods: Organic Growth In A Volatile Market  [View article]
    No discussion about competition. WWAV has a couple nice brands but what is their sustainable competitive advantage? More and more big budget traditional food companies are coming out with "natural" and "organic" lines that will likely take share from WWAV. Total market size for this stuff will likely grow so WWAV will do ok, but rate of growth likely to moderate which isn't what you want to see from a 42 PE. I loved this company a few years, not so much.
    Jan 27, 2016. 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Express Q4 Earnings: Really That Bad?  [View article]
    I think the point of the article is the "headwinds" described above are either built into the valuation and/or are overblown. My issue is the buybacks described by author as "a huge benefit for shareholders in the long term". Try taking the amount spent on buybacks and subtracting shares bought back times $55 and putting a negative sign in front of that number. I think they should stop with the buybacks and raise the dividend substantially. That would be a sign of confidence in the future.
    Jan 26, 2016. 06:31 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Apple Be The Next Amex, Or Could Amex Be The Next Apple?  [View article]
    ".....break-up of the company. (A strategy that I advocated last year when it was announced ValueAct had taken an investment in the company.)"

    Anybody who advocates the break up of a company should at a minimum be able to articulate what components will be broken up, and why. I'm still waiting for an answer.
    Jan 26, 2016. 12:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ValueAct Blows Out Of American Express  [View article]
    Buffet is the ultimate insider. He did not think the short term moves Ubben were suggesting would increase shareholder value more than the long term Chenault plan. I believe Buffet.
    Jan 24, 2016. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Express Continues To Struggle  [View article]
    Cut cost/increase rewards/stop buybacks/increase dividends.
    Jan 22, 2016. 05:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ValueAct Blows Out Of American Express  [View article]
    AXP is aware of the digital revolution, too aware. They have spent untold dollars on various digital flops. And, they have spent untold dollars on share buybacks at prices well above today's price. My prescription is to cut ancillary cost to the bone then become laser focused on being the best service/rewards card to businesses and high end consumers. If they keep trying to be the next PayPal they are doomed to fail. Chenault could pull it off if he stopped being distracted by each new fad. Plus knock off the self-serving buybacks and jack up the dividend already.
    Jan 22, 2016. 04:56 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon lowers churn, posts better-than-expected 1.5M net adds  [View news story]
    Agree. Would get FiOS in a second if they would dig a hole to my SoCal home.
    Jan 21, 2016. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain's 2015 Year In Review  [View article]
    Good summary. In 2008 I tried my first Keurig machine, thought it was very cool and went out and bought GMCR stock. In and out over the years and today sold my last tranche (basis $4). I told my wife we didn't need to be loyal to GMCR any longer and she immediately went out and bought a Nespresso. That thing makes awesome coffee...really good product in my view...wish we had it earlier. GMCR stock was a fun and highly profitable ride for me but I'm glad I'm out now because you're right Seth, consumer choice wins in the long run.
    Jan 4, 2016. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain's 2015 Year In Review  [View article]
    Not if the deal financing falls through.
    Jan 4, 2016. 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Men's Market Growth To Bolster - 5 Year Major Upside For Lululemon  [View article]
    My point is you can't conclude anything if you simply use rates with a low base. If you sell one thing in year 1 you can grow at 100% per year for 6 years and end up selling 64 things. You need to ground your conclusion in volumes, or relate it to % total volume, or % of total market.
    Dec 31, 2015. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Men's Market Growth To Bolster - 5 Year Major Upside For Lululemon  [View article]
    "The company is off to a great start on this objective, with same store sales growth of men's apparel outpacing overall same store sales growth for every quarter since Q1 2014 and representing a staggering 19% in Q1 2015."

    Staggering? Your data does not even support your conclusion. Its pretty easy to get a high growth rate when you start from zero.

    That said, I personally like LULU golf shirts but it would be nice to have some real evidence that its working.
    Dec 30, 2015. 02:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Express: Steering Away From The Stock For Now  [View article]
    It seems pretty straightforward to me. A deal is something two parties agree to. AXP offers to put their sticker on a storefront for 2% of AXP sales with no steering. Merchant can agree to deal and take card or disagree to deal and not take card.

    Instead, merchant wants to come back with their own deal: we get the AXP sticker but want to steer so AXP sales are lower than otherwise. AXP says, we don't like that deal, but merchants say, too bad we're going to get the courts to shove it down your throat.
    Dec 23, 2015. 11:31 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Express: Steering Away From The Stock For Now  [View article]
    "merchants no longer seeing the cost/benefit analysis in favor of the current relationship with AmEx"

    There is no evidence the above statement is true. If it were, merchants could simply stop taking the card. AXP pays better rewards to members, so members prefer going to merchants that take the card. Merchants want the highest possible revenue and lowest possible expenses, so they've come up with a way to manipulate the courts into allowing them to free-ride AXP's investment in rewards. Merchants should either welcome the card or stop taking it altogether.
    Dec 22, 2015. 08:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks to watch with milk and egg prices finally on the decline  [View news story]
    Lower milk prices a negative for WWAV?
    Dec 15, 2015. 09:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment