Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View markb's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Keurig Kold Launches With Negative Commentary Already [View article]
    Really Seth? Your ego that fragile? Please let us know what "due diligence" you conducted to determine that the power consumption from one plugged in KK will cause "electricity costs to soar".
    Sep 29, 2015. 04:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa’s split eventually could pair it with Alcan, analyst speculates [View news story]
    Good idea...I think it could happen.
    Sep 29, 2015. 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Wrong With American Express? (Video) [View article]
    You lost me on the third that supposed to be a sentence?
    Sep 29, 2015. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Kold Launches With Negative Commentary Already [View article]
    I wonder if this thing will do well in places where they don't have a refrigerator handy, like offices for example. And regarding "get ready for electricity costs to soar", according to Consumer Reports an efficient 4.4 cubic foot minifridge costs around $2/month to keep plugged in so that statement appears hyperbole.

    I have my doubts about KK, but the prelaunch sentiment is so overwhelmingly one-sided negative that any indication of non-flop, along with some moderate recovery in the hot business, could pop GMCR. Since everyone clearly expects KK to be a failure, they can't do worse than expected.
    Sep 29, 2015. 02:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Prices Per Square Foot Show Affluent-Centered Market, Not Bubble 2.0 [View article]
    Second chart is blurry and impossible to read.
    Sep 26, 2015. 12:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain: Another Chance To Short [View article]
    "Starbucks' single-serve sales increased an incredible 41 percent year over year in the four weeks ending on September 5. Sales for that period included 53 percent year over year unit growth. In addition, Starbucks' K-Cup market share increased 0.40 percent on the month to 16.7 percent." it possible to use the data behind the above to draw a conclusion about overall K-cup growth rates? The math appears to imply that for SBUX to grow at 41% and only gain .4% share, overall K-cup growth (including that of GMCR) must be pretty high.
    Sep 22, 2015. 04:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Express: Is There Any Value Here? [View article]
    I agree there is value with AXP. There's always been competition, I haven't seen evidence that its getting more intense. Their share might be flat but the market includes the low end that generates credit losses. The reality is AXP has a strong position among the affluent, and its getting stronger. According to Morgan Stanley (Yahoo Finance 9/16) in 2005 AXP Charge/Card exceeded V, MA and DFS by 63%, 69% and 36% respectively. Today that premium is 100%, 164% and 129% respectively. That's huge. The affluent cards are more profitable and in a recession the low-end cards others are fighting for may prove to be a liability.
    Sep 16, 2015. 02:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Breakout seen for WhiteWave Foods [View news story]
    WWAV: ships CA water to China in the form of an almond
    Sep 4, 2015. 05:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite The Recent Fall, Deere Is Still Too High [View article]
    DE would be a lot lower if that guy from Omaha didn't give them the vote of confidence.
    Sep 4, 2015. 03:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Express: Management Has To Go [View article]
    Not sure why you highlight comparisons with network-only V and MA when AXP is an issuer like BAC and COF. Only real comparable is DFS. Anyway, results have been kind of disappointing...seems like a long time since they've made some winner move. Still, I don't think moving out on the credit curve is the way to go. I'm pretty sure they have credit/profit optimization models and wouldn't want to see the bad old days where they take big write off charges.

    Need some other big idea. Maybe spin the network off like V/MA and make that the primo network. Hard to do that with the DOJ allowing steering though. Or maybe merge with PayPal...probably a lot of synergies there. AXP is a good franchise but I agree with the author's conclusion that if they don't do something soon investors should start to wonder.
    Sep 4, 2015. 03:10 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Great American (Express) Spin-Off? [View article]
    Pretty good recap of AXP issues, and refocus on corporate market may make sense. But its not clear why a spin-off is necessary. And it seems unrealistic: author points out value is in brand and AXP would never allow the brand to be used in independent entities. That means in a spin off either the personal or corporate side would need to rebrand away from the American Express name...I don't think that works.
    Aug 25, 2015. 02:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just 13 stocks beat Google since IPO [View news story]
    Once you're in tell everyone.
    Aug 20, 2015. 10:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AmEx Is Overvalued, Here's Why [View article]
    Amex is undervalued, here's why. ValueAct.
    Aug 9, 2015. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola Should Make A Keurig Decision [View article]
    I agree that KO is should think about buying GMCR now. But your article doesn't address what I think is the most important question: What could KO do with GMCRs coffee business?
    Jul 7, 2015. 03:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain Looking To Bottom [View article]
    Ok, thanks. I agree KO acquisition rumors should pick up, for good reason. Back of napkin combo analysis, KO buys the 84% of GMCR it doesn't own at $100/share in all stock deal. Numbers rough but don't need to be perfect:

    KO gets GMCR $600 NI, less dividends on the 16% they currently own (-$30) plus lets say a 10% cut to SGA (+$60).

    KO pays $100/share ($15B for 100%), but only needs 84% ($12.6B) and can redeploy excess GMCR cash ($.6B). 300mm KO shares.

    Put those together and deal is accretive to KO EPS by $.03. Assuming no future growth ever.

    And KO gets synergy effects related to distribution and manufacturing on the coffee side of the business. Deal benefits are not dependent on Kold.

    KO has got to be looking hard at GMCR deal right now.
    Jun 30, 2015. 01:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment