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markb

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  • The Keurig 2.0 Comes With A Bevy Of Risks For Keurig Green Mountain [View article]
    I understand the point of this article is to highlight risks, but I think a more balanced approach would be to also highlight the upside. If the 2.0 flies it will severely limit the knock-offs which may be why we saw the Kraft deal today which brings in some blockbuster brands: Maxwell House, Gevalia, Yuban and McCafe. And the inability to make a carafe has been the number one non-price objection to a Keurig which suggests lots of people with money are now fair game to buy a brewer.

    Regarding the restrictions, with 2.0 you can't use knock offs and you can't build your own K's. Not sure what data supports your assertion there are millions that build their own K's, but in any event, why should GMCR care? Neither one of those groups makes any money for them. Good riddance.

    I'm excited about K2.0 and will be buying one next week!
    Aug 22 04:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain Showed A Strong Q3 2014 And Emphasized A Strong Full Year Outlook [View article]
    Good article. Seth, could you address GMCR plans for their other brewers post 2.0? Will the existing line be eliminated, undermarketed or business as usual? I would think that decision would strongly the influence the 2.0 adoption rate.
    Aug 18 05:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon: A Slightly Different Angle, Which Reveals A Few Upside Opportunities [View article]
    High ROE is impressive considering they don't get there by leverage.
    Aug 18 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Really A Surprise That SodaStream Is Yet To Be Acquired? [View article]
    Good question. Perhaps potential suitors are limiting their risk by waiting to evaluate the K-Cold rollout. Or maybe GMCR/KO has told them K-Cold will be an open system, so they plan to sell pods there like SBUX does now with coffee. No beverage exec wants to be known as the guy who bought the Betamax of soda makers.
    Aug 18 02:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Life Gives You Lemons, Don't Buy Lululemon [View article]
    The single new item presented here ("many of lululemon's customers characterize themselves as, "strong women," and view lululemon's brand as tarnished now") is presented without a shred of evidence. On the one hand is Advent, experienced PE guys with a history with LULU making a $845mm bet at $42. On the other hand, this undergrad's old news "argument". Hmm.

    Long LULU.
    Aug 18 09:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain Hopes Coffee Costs Don't Put Share Price To Sleep [View article]
    The last time GMCR raised prices in response to green coffee they had a windfall when those costs went back down. Commodity cost is cyclical and pricing is generally one way which eventually will work in their favor.
    Aug 17 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why GlaxoSmithKline Is A Tempting Buy [View article]
    Would PFE have a tax inversion opportunity with GSK?
    Aug 14 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Factors That Make American Express A Risky Short-Term Investment [View article]
    Agree with jermil...this article is junior high at best. Author describes the business model, which has been wildly successful since the 1960's, as a problem? And states that increased customer spending is a one time thing? Nothing useful here.

    Regarding the Chenault quotes, note that AXP is currently engaged in antitrust litigation with the Justice Department so its in his interest to "spin" the company as having a tough time competing with the V/MA bullies.

    Long AXP.
    Aug 13 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Refined marketing message for SodaStream in the U.S. [View news story]
    Not sure about this. According to the link, in Europe they don't like schlepping, don't like hurting the environment, and want some fun. Compared to the grocery store, with SODA you don't schlep, don't hurt the environment and have some fun. Good positioning.

    But in the US what's SODA's competitive advantage on healthy? Maybe against traditional Coke and Pepsi as currently formulated. But last time I was at the grocery I had to search across many yards of healthy beverage aisle space before finally finding my wife's favorite.
    Aug 12 05:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon: Let's Just Wait And See [View article]
    If you wait until they prove themselves with sales, it will be too late. There is one key data point available now: $42.04, the price paid by the PE boys.
    Aug 11 07:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microvision Continues Path To Profitability With Production And Delivery Coming Soon [View article]
    You have to hand it to Tokman...he's is a survivor extraordinaire and spinmaster of managing expectations. Yes, bright skies are just around his next corner...as they have been for years. Don't hold your breath.
    Aug 11 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysts weigh in on Lululemon [View news story]
    The analysts look at LULU from 100,000 feet.

    Advent, arguably the most informed PE firm in this case, has turned over every rock and has determined $42.04 meets their aggressive return requirements.

    I'm with Advent.
    Aug 8 09:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Cup Of Joe? Keurig Green Mountain [View article]
    Agree with the old geek that raising "accounting shenanigans" is an uninformed, inaccurate low-blow.

    Regarding GMCR, one can be agnostic on K-Cold and still like the stock. Its got a dominant position in a large and growing market with a loyal installed base and an impressive set of partnerships. Its got an outstanding manager in Brian Kelly. Its got stable margins and improving efficiency. And its soon to be released flagship product, K2.0, addresses its most significant competitive threat.

    When buying the stock you get that package, plus several implied call options: International, Bolt, K2.0 blowout (author states #1 non-price objection to single serve is brew size) and K-Cold. Plus you get implied KO put...if GMCR stock price gets low KO might take them out. It is not impossible that K-Cold is the Trojan Horse that gets KO into coffee, and the synergies one can imagine with GMCR 100% owned by KO are impressive.

    Current entry price seems a little high, but there are few deals in today's market. Bottom line is there is a lot to like about GMCR even without K-Cold.
    Aug 8 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon founder reaches truce with activist; shares jump [View news story]
    If the PE guys are getting in at $42.04 that's a good enough entry for me.
    Aug 7 06:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon: There Isn't Much Room To Run [View article]
    "When you have declining revenue and income growth rates, those are signs of a declining market potential and a possible squeeze in cash flows."

    Or maybe just the math of getting big.

    "Apple boasts a strong brand, and massive customer loyalty, which Lululemon does not enjoy."

    You don't understand this company.
    Aug 6 09:47 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
408 Comments
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