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  • What Should SodaStream Do Now? [View article]
    Maybe the answer to the title question is to stop trying so hard to sell this thing in the US where they don't like it and try harder to sell it in places where they do.
    Oct 21 01:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway: 20%+ Undervalued? DCF Calculation [View article]
    Just curious...for those who argue the passing of WB/CM will have no impact on value...isn't that like saying they add no value now?

    I once saw an interesting analysis (unfortunately I can't recall where) that showed virtually all so-called investment superstar results could be explained by simply being at the tail end of a random distribution. Except one guy...WB.

    My guess is an accurate valuation of BRK would be slightly less than market, with the difference attributable to the WB/CM premium. I guess I respect the guy too much to suggest the firm could get along fine without him. To me BRK's competitive advantage is his influence and decisioning. I'm not sure that magic can be somehow packaged into "inspired management" in a way that will long survive him. Very unfortunately, it won't be long before we find out.
    Oct 21 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway: 20%+ Undervalued? DCF Calculation [View article]
    We'll agree to disagree on that one. Your history of business includes pioneer god-fathers who built something with a sustainable competitive advantage, then left this world. IMHO WB/CM are the sustainable competitive advantage. I don't see anything particularly unique or sustainable in a "decentralized model of management and performance based incentive structure". BRK will still have value, but the WB premium will be gone.
    Oct 20 01:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway: 20%+ Undervalued? DCF Calculation [View article]
    Don't buy it. COE of 5.85% is too low. And Berkshire has multiple investments such as WFC, KO, AXP, etc. To do a true DCF, you would need to independently value those. Plus you ignore elephant in room...what happens when WB passes on.
    Oct 20 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The SEC closes the book on old Keurig Green Mountain probe [View news story]
    Also SA "contributors" Merriam and Antar with their series of baseless allegations...where are they now?
    Oct 17 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Express: Earnings Miss Around The Corner [View article]
    Two big problems with this thesis:

    1. AXP "loans" are mix of low loss charge and higher loss lending. Company has managed to reduce % lending over time so provision as % total loans never needs to "normalize" to irrelevant pre-2009 mix.

    2. Company has stated philosophy to manage a significant percent of expense base as "investments" implying they will be reduced accordingly should positive one-time items disappear.

    AXP has a very impressive ROE compared to other financials, so from a value-oriented perspective they generate profitable growth, not just low ROE value destruction like many banks. Long AXP.
    Oct 14 08:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why SodaStream Will Continue To Fizzle In The U.S. And Keurig Won't [View article]
    Its not clear to me that KO's deal with GMCR will prevent GMCR from creating an open system for K-Cold in which PEP can supply pods. My understanding is KO will only sell pods through GMCR, but GMCR can sell pods of others. Nobody expected SBUX to sell pods through GMCR until they did...SBUX wasn't interested in the brewer business, but didn't stand by either.
    Oct 9 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: SodaStream Issues Dismal Preliminary Q3 '14 Earnings [View article]
    Maybe "now isn't the time to dump the stock" but it was two weeks ago when you said it was "a compelling valuation" at $30.
    Oct 8 03:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Express Hopes Consumers Continue To Spend [View article]
    Agreed...SA needs to do some editing. AXPs primary source of revenue is discount fee on high net worth spending, not lending. Plus nobody uses EBITDA with financial institutions for reasons which should be obvious. And the dividend thing...what is that? No credibility.
    Sep 19 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon: My Assumptions In Levered Returns' Valuation Model Suggest Cramer Is Right [View article]
    Yeah, I played with it. Using a 6% terminal growth rate and a 10% WACC gets you a stock price of 60.
    Sep 15 04:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon Earnings Preview: The Growth Story Is Officially Over [View article]
    Your thinking is only as good as your data. Advent has better data.
    Sep 11 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon Earnings Preview: The Growth Story Is Officially Over [View article]
    Advent buying at 42 was a big big flashing green light go signal backed by cash, not opinion. I'm surprised more investors didn't jump on it.
    Sep 11 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Keurig 2.0 Is Leaving A Bitter Taste In People's Mouths [View article]
    Kind of hard to reconcile GMCR's 70% YTD stock price increase with your bleak assessment. That knockoff users are whining because their scam has become more difficult does not mean 2.0 is a failure, in fact it might be a good thing they are feeling pain since GMCR doesn't want them as customers anyway.
    Sep 11 09:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon: Looking For A Reason To Get Excited Again [View article]
    "With Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) scheduled to report earnings Thursday morning, the question remains what should investors do ahead of the call if anything?"

    Not that this article was particularly insightful, but if your objective was the above why would you publish it too late for investors to act?
    Sep 11 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon Earnings Preview: The Growth Story Is Officially Over [View article]
    What odd timing for this article. You would think it would be published before the close, when readers could act, or after the release, when the new data could be processed.
    Sep 11 12:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment