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  • Why Keurig Green Mountain Will Definitely, Surely, Assuredly, Certainly Not Be Trading At $108 When 2015 Starts [View article]
    Do I have this right? You're betting that the price of GMCR will not be between $67 and $153 on 1/1/15? That's your idea? Yikes!
    Mar 30 02:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain's Keurig 2.0 Has Opportunities And Downside Risk [View article]
    Still not sure why no My Cups in K 2.0 is a big deal. If GMCR sells the brewers at cost and makes money on the K's, the avid My Cup customer is profitless. Under K 2.O if half the My Cuppers get pissed and leave, and half turn to K's, its still a net gain for GMCR. On the antitrust side, GMCR will argue K 2.0 uses rfid to custom match the brewer to the pod, thus justifying the knock-off lock out. Would be pretty hard to make that argument if K 2.0 could brew a My Cup which is the ultimate generic.
    Mar 30 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will Lululemon Fare Under New Boss Laurent Potdevin? [View article]
    What a useless article.
    Mar 26 03:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain's Keurig 2.0 Has Opportunities And Downside Risk [View article]
    No mycups in K2.0 doesn't strike me as a big deal. Of more concern are the new brewers for the knock off K's, but price sensitive types aren't really GMCRs target. K-Cold continues to be a mystery. My question: is KO willing and able to help GMCR grow the coffee business internationally?
    Mar 25 08:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks: Baristas' Worst Nightmare - More Speed [View article]
    Bypassed many a Starbucks cause the line was too long. Prep is limiting constraint. Mobile ordering app could be big...maybe with off-peak discounts.
    Mar 24 09:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revenue Growth Ahead For Keurig Green Mountain [View article]
    "When someone is considering buying a Keurig 2.0 they are going to compare it to the competition and the competition is growing and will offer more choice and a lower operating price."

    That sounds like you doing marketing research on yourself. Coffee drinkers in general, and Keurig drinkers specifically are very brand and mode loyal. The Keurig 2.0 will custom brew a cup based on the rfid...keeping out the knock offs is an ancillary benefit. Further, it will brew a 4 cup mini pot. Current Kuerig users are likely to be very interested in these features, just when their existing B60's are dying off. GMCR might have a couple Q's of weak brewer sales as customers hold off in anticipation of 2.0 but once its out I think it will be a huge hit. K-Cold is more of a question mark because of the carbonation issue, but its unlikely KO invested $1.25B on a dice roll.

    Speaking of KO, don't forget that they own 10% of GMCR, they are open to working on a variety of projects and one of GMCR goals is to expand internationally. KO could make the international expansion of GMCR way, way easier. This K-Cold thing could be a KO trojan horse...its entirely possible they want to ultimately be a big player in coffee. If so, it provides potential downside protection because if GMCR gets cheap enough, KO will buy them.
    Mar 24 06:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why SodaStream Can Fight Coca-Cola And Green Mountain Alone [View article]
    I think the title of this article should be "Why Sodastream Can't Fight Coca-Cola and Green Mountain Alone".
    Mar 4 05:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola's Partnership With Green Mountain Will Face Many Challenges [View article]
    Interesting comment timewarp, if KO/K-Cold can get the technology right, I agree with you, including PEP selling pods through the open K-Cold platform.

    One thing that seems to be forgotten here are synergies between KO and Keurig on the hot side. The KO press release says they'll be exploring other opportunities for the Keurig platform (purposefully doesn't limit other opportunities to the Keurig-Cold platform). So for example, maybe KO can work with international retailers to have a GMCR coffee pod rack set up saving GMCR tons of time/money with international rollout. Probably numerous other potential synergies.

    Why would KO do that? Obvious reason is their 10% position. But note that although the investment agreement has a 3 year standstill limiting KO to 20.5% uninvited ownership, the agreement seems to go out of the way to allow KO to swoop in with a purchase offer for all of GMCR. Further, KO now has an observer on the GMCR board, so if they decide to buy they'll have an inside track on timing.

    In summary, KO's deal on K-Cold may be a sideshow....what KO really wants is to own coffee.
    Feb 26 01:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are There Any Synergies Within A Pepsico, SodaStream Partnership? [View article]
    Seth...question for you...what exactly will be the technical function of the K-Cold machine? Assuming KO comes up with the perfect fizz/flavor pod, could the technology ever get to a point where you just drop the pod contents in cold water and get soda, etc? If so, it seems like it would be game over for SODA and K-Cold from a convenience perspective.
    Feb 23 09:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Seems Vulnerable To The Coffee Price Spike [View article]
    15% near term impact is way off. GMCR uses fixed contracts for coffee priced 9-12 months out, plus hedges.

    If coffee prices stay high for over a year, then there could be an impact. But they have pricing power, especially in the context of K2.0 which doesn't take knock offs.

    Last time coffee prices popped GMCR raised prices, then when coffee prices came down they had a windfall. Could easily happen again.

    And finally, you don't need coffee to make soda!
    Feb 20 12:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It The Right Time To Buy Green Mountain Coffee? [View article]
    Buying GMCR now is not a crazy idea. Granted the news is out regarding KO, and that's a long wait, however the news is also out about K 2.0. As a result, one would expect a brewer sales slow down as new and existing customers hang on to their old brewers and wait for 2.0. In that context ok brewer sales before 2.0 is a very good sign. And pent up delayed purchase volume could result in 2.0 sales blowing through expectations...the thing everybody has to have for Xmas 14. Followed by K Cold in 15. Good stuff on the horizon!
    Feb 14 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain, Coca-Cola Deal May Put SodaStream In Play [View article]
    "The cold system is expected to be a similarly open-architecture platform like the Keurig® hot system."

    The above quote is from the KO press release about the deal. "Exclusive" refers to KO just selling through K-Cold.

    Regarding your analogy, I think GMCR is the VHS, SODA is betamax and KO, PEP are big movie studios. But, we shall see.
    Feb 10 08:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain, Coca-Cola Deal May Put SodaStream In Play [View article]
    KO gave K-Cold a one way 10 year exclusive so they do not appeared worried about SODA and/or they have issues with SODA. For example, maybe they are concerned about cannabalization and don't plan on trying to replicate flagship Coke at home...they have hundreds of other brands. In any event, I'm not sure PEP wants to get on board with a distribution system that KO thinks so little of. K-Cold will be an open system so PEP can use it. By analogy, would all GMCR's licensees run for the hills if SBUX bought 10% of GMCR? No. KO knew the value of GMCR would pop upon deal announcement so found a way to earn a quick half $B, and they deserved it. But I don't think the investment was about squeezing out PEP. I would not be surprised if GMCR and PEP were talking right now.
    Feb 10 04:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain's Pop Will Fizzle Out [View article]
    Minor dilution is irrelevant now that the growth outlook has changed (higher PE).

    GMCR is already in 13% of homes and KO is a world class brand. They have a prototype machine that works. Without PEP, SODA appears doomed. Its now trading on takeover hopes that may not materialize.

    KO has agreed to supply pods to GMCR only, but GMCR would like open system like with coffee. PEP may get on board with GMCR...view Keurig Cold as a home "store shelf".

    I don't like SODAs position in this at all.
    Feb 7 02:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Deal With Coca-Cola Shows Desperation [View article]
    Your sentence and theme "The deal was more out of desperation than anything else" is patently ridiculous. Try looking up from your desk full of numbers long enough to recognize a strategic inflection point. Was GMCRs introduction of home single serve made "out of desperation" with bagged coffee sales declines? Was AAPLs introduction of iPod, Pad and Phone made out of desperation with Mac declines?

    Declining US core business revenue growth is a flash of the obvious, its the burning platform forcing innovation. Regarding the most recent rate, consider that GMCR has been preannouncing 2.0 as the greatest thing since sliced bread so if I'm considering a new brewer the last thing I want now is a soon to be obsolete B60.

    Then your nutshell assessment that you can buy 2 liters for a buck so Keurig Cold won't work...let's get that off to KO because, as one of the greatest marketing machines in the history of mankind who just dropped over $1B on this thing, they probably didn't do any marketing reseach or due diligence. Right.

    Bottom line is that GMCR was trading at a reasonable multiple for a moderate growth core business with an implied call on sucessful growth initiatives. The price was working up as the threat of imminent decline (patent expiration sales loss) proved false. The implied endorsement of the KO deal rightfully increased the value of the implied call significantly.

    And here's my prediction...you're never going to see huge results from Keurig Cold in the GMCR financial numbers. Because when Keurig Cold is hugely successful KO will know before it hits the numbers and KO will buy the rest of GMCR before the GMCR stock price, and ultimately the KO purchase price, goes through the roof. Their billion now is saving them billions later.
    Feb 6 11:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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