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huthutho

huthutho
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  • American Eagle: Value Play Or Current Troubles To Stay? [View article]
    Disclosure: hold a small position in my wife's Roth @ $12's.
    Q1 revenue missed estimates by a quarter of 1% which is not much (YoY was worse, granted.) My view is that AEO stock price will indeed recover, due to management expertise and changes afoot. Back-to-school quarter will tell but possibly may see improvement as soon as spring quarter. Competition has always been strong in this market, and the H&Ms will own the low cost end, but AEO has higher quality product that also appeals to those with a little more money to spend, as well as some older clients too. All just IMO!
    Jun 4, 2014. 03:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital's Potential Financial Restatements: Explaining The Current Situation And Its Impacts - Part 2 [View article]
    I agree with rlp - the lawsuits are just a cost of doing business... been that way for years now... just ask any C-level exec at a publicly-traded company. The little retail investors may not understand that, but the big players all do.
    Jun 3, 2014. 09:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BDC Rankings: May 2014 [View article]
    SG, I have pondered 2 scenarios... either the rates stay low for a year or two longer, or the Fed just wakes up one day and raises rates for some reason that may or may not be truly valid, without having previously telegraphed their intentions to do so. I favor the low rates scenario for now. We'll see in time! I appreciate your view as well.
    May 20, 2014. 11:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BDC Rankings: May 2014 [View article]
    Appreciate your view, BDC Buzz, as to who is best-suited for the different possible rate environments. Something to think about before selecting which BDCs to buy.
    May 20, 2014. 11:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BDC Rankings: May 2014 [View article]
    BDC Buzz, you observe "BDCs react to market conditions quicker than most stocks..." and then display a chart that shows index reconstitution- and Fed statement-related 25_BDC_performance, which appears to me to show the correlation and rapidity you describe. Yet I am curious to know how you think BDCs will behave (both in price and payout) if the Fed, instead of raising rates slowly as we've heard, chooses to let them drift lower for another 2 years before any increase.

    Disc: long PSEC, PNNT, FSC, ARCC... waiting to buy MCC & TCRD "soon."

    Very much appreciate your analyses, esp. risk/timing aspects.

    Cheers and Thanks!
    May 20, 2014. 02:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital's Potential Financial Restatements: Explaining The Current Situation And Its Impacts - Part 2 [View article]
    "...why PSEC would appeal rather than comply and move on...."

    They think they're right. (Independent auditors have apparently agreed up to now.)

    They need time to analyze before speaking.

    They still have a biz to run and need to add staff to address the matter, which will take time to come up to speed.

    Nice work, Scott. Enhances my understanding of how these BDCs work! Much appreciated.
    May 15, 2014. 09:27 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    RiQ: Re 2-round system... I've always thought so as well. Or maybe ten rounds, like a boxing event, even if there were only 2 participants!

    The "dialog" here on the French made me pause to think about the beginning of WW2's Dunkirk evacuation whereby 338,000 troops (2/3's British & 1/3 French) made it back to England to fight another day. Chamberlain was replaced by Churchill just beforehand. History lesson here:
    http://bit.ly/1qDfSbn

    I also recall something the French are one of the top 2 (IMO.. the other being various Asian styles): fine cuisine! The best meal I ever had was a few years ago in Luxembourg at a farm-based hotel where the chef was French. On the menu it was a special item named "gastronomique extraordinaire" and indeed it was, from the goose-liver pate to the fresh stream-caught trout and on to several other courses.
    May 14, 2014. 01:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital Suffers A Flash Crash [View article]
    "Prospect Capital has likely forever lost its status as a "stable" income stock."

    Not for me, it hasn't. Indices-based funds selling as PSEC comes out of the indices followed by stop-loss selling is the likely reason. Other funds that are not indices-based got a great deal on yesterday's 25M share day. (78M shares traded in the last 5 days as these indices funds unloaded.)

    IMO, it is unfortunate many retail investors got shaken out of their shares due to the concurrent SEC issue.

    Staying long PSEC and will buy more if it has another big down day.

    Lastly... sure, I'll sell if the SEC issue turns into something bigger, but I don't see it happening based on all I've read. (PS-I don't use stop-losses.)
    May 14, 2014. 12:02 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    This helps explain why this Administration is fighting for Ukraine against Putin.
    While Putin enriches himself with oil, apparently so does this Administration.

    http://bit.ly/1sNbJiI

    http://huff.to/1sNbJiJ

    Then, the bipartisan energy efficiency bill is derailed (reported in NYTimes):
    http://nyti.ms/1sNbJiM

    Prediction: Keystone XL pipeline won't get approved until the Administration cronies make hay off it.

    Anyone read Nader's new book on Dems/Repubs coming together on some issues?
    May 14, 2014. 08:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: What Comes Next? Part 1 [View article]
    1~ Sure, there's risk. That's why those companies getting the loans are paying the high rates. It is PSEC's job to manage that risk, which is one reason they get the big buck fees that shareholders are willing to sign up to for the arrangement.

    2~ I'll bet you aren't only buying 3% payers for your portfolio. This AM would have been a good time to close out a short position. No doubt there will be others. In the meantime, holders will be collecting monthly dividends.

    3~ Good movie scene... gets the blood flowing!
    May 13, 2014. 10:54 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: What Comes Next? Part 1 [View article]
    Don't forget the indices-based funds are likely selling due to required changes... probably the real reason for the sell-off today. (Note the price is stabilizing now, and not at the low.) Dividend is covered for rest of year. Even if borrowing/lending is curtailed for the rest of the year, and the dividend gets cut by 25% for next year, it is still a good return. This management team is seasoned and will weather the storm... IMO.
    May 13, 2014. 10:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy the dip in Prospect says National Securities [View news story]
    Thank you, elliot_mllr, for your reply. I'm still learning and regret I didn't take more biz classes in grad school! ;-)
    May 12, 2014. 12:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy the dip in Prospect says National Securities [View news story]
    So if I understand this correctly, Brucejfern is saying (in part) subsidiary assets may be less than liabilities (and we can't tell from looking at the reports), but elliot_mllr is saying such is not the case. My question for elliot_mllr is: how do you know that such is not the case, if the reports do not reveal it? (I.e., what is Brucejfern missing?)

    I will continue to hold PSEC until this is resolved, and collect the dividend.
    May 12, 2014. 08:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BDC Pricing And The Russell Indices: Part 2 [View article]
    Thanks for your evals, BDC Buzz. While price fluctuations generally appear dependent on results/payout coverage, NAV & growth, the next 2 months will tell if investor emotions and large position sales drive prices lower. Personally, I'm comfortable holding current positions in FSC, PNNT, & ARCC, and while less comfortable with PSEC, I do not intend to sell. (I'll give management the benefit of the doubt in their dealings with SEC and their stating the impact of any changes won't significantly affect investors anyway.) Others like TCPC are looking interesting now, too. I do not see how other commenters on the various articles on BDC's feel they can forecast a specific end-of-year price (usually lower), and appear to either be shorts or chicken littles.
    May 9, 2014. 09:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SEC orders accounting change at Prospect Capital [View news story]
    Why do I think this is another "much ado about not much" scenario... LNCO comes to mind. Interpretation of accounting principles leaves much to the company to decide, so long as it is consistent. I'm sure others will weigh in with their "but the SEC may say differently..." arguments, but at the end of the day, while NAV may fluctuate, the payouts will continue, even if at a slightly lower rate. So, if the impact is a part of a percent reduction in payout, I'll add to my position. I'm certainly not selling.
    May 7, 2014. 01:18 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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