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Nasir Khan

Nasir Khan
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  • Coal stocks hammered as oil prices tumble [View news story]
    Agreed fully. Oil and coal are not substitutes . Its all about demand and supply fundamentals. The deep water drilling has oversupply issues and that's why we have seen stocks like SDRL, and RIG tank. Shale oil is not profitable at 65 dollars a barrel. Coal also has over supply issues but most of corrective actions in terms of controlling production/capacity and cost control have already been taken over last 3 years ! So coal could be in better shape for a rebound.
    Dec 1, 2014. 08:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vulture hedge funds bet on coal mining bankruptcies [View news story]
    This kind of news will keep coal stocks volatile. I believe worst is already reflected in stock prices and any positive news will fire up coal stocks. Prices got to recover at some point as during the last three years demand kept on increasing and new production delayed by the suppliers. BTU, ACI and ANR seem well positioned to benefit by a cyclical upturn which will imo bring a strong overcorrection to the upside.
    Nov 25, 2014. 04:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alpha Natural Resources - Time To Leave The Ship [View article]
    This article if written in mid 2011 would have been very relevant. But not in Nov 2014. Also it completely ignores the cyclical nature of industry. The author is short ANR !!
    Nov 3, 2014. 11:45 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Found The Cheapest Stock In The Stock Market [View article]
    Yes some good points in the article. ANR cannot be ignored at current price. We must keep in mind that coal is cyclical and when the prices eventually rebound most of the incremental revenue will fall through into earnings. Also they seem to have large NOLs (Net operating losses) brought forward. This can give a further boost to earnings leverage by keeping tax charge low. So yes it is possible that this stock is a five beggar !
    Jul 7, 2014. 03:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alpha Natural Resources - Doing All It Can To Survive Tough Times [View article]
    Yes agreed with the points of Trendy. I am very optimistic with coal stocks performance in the second half of the year and for next couple of years.
    Jun 17, 2014. 07:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal - The Perfect Play Off A Coal Market Rebound [View article]
    I have been long BTU for the last 6 months or so. However both ACI and ANR have come down to very attrractive valuations which cannot be ignored.

    At $3.50 the risk-reward seems very attractive for ACI, a company that owns more than 5.5 Billion tons of reserves. There are several catalysts in the market place e.g. rise in natural gas prices, better supply demand balance, improvement in US thermal coal prices and huge savings realised from cost reduction and capital containment initiatives.

    Though Met coal is oversupplied, but ANR's valuation is suggesting that worst is baked into the stock price. Recent reduction in output from most met coal producers will reduce the supply side over next couple of quarters. Also estimates still show a 3.5% pick up in steel demand compared to last year with most coming in the second half of the year.

    Next two to three quarters will be very interesting. Both ACI and ANR have the potential to go up several folds from currect valuation.
    Jun 12, 2014. 11:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: Update On The Coal Sector [View article]
    Only three years ago Alpha Natural Resources paid $7.1B to acquire Massey Energy company. Arch Coal acquired International Coal Group for $3.4B. Today you can buy combined company ANR for little over $700M. Same for ACI.

    There are issues of oversupply and EPA impact, but it is also possible that these stocks are way oversold ! Time will tell. Next 6-12 months will be very interesting !
    Jun 2, 2014. 11:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: Update On The Coal Sector [View article]
    The real growth in steam coal is going to come from exports to Asia.
    May 30, 2014. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: The Only Way To Play The Coal Miners [View article]
    Among ACI, WLT and ANR , ACI could possibly rebound on strong thermal coal fundamentals in US. Its a dangerous stock due to continuous cash burn and high debt but can reward investors with high returns. Most of the debt will mature in 2018 and they have improved cash position late last year through sale of non core assets. So it looks like company has enough resources for atleaset next couple of years.
    May 22, 2014. 08:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy Corporation declares $0.085 dividend [View news story]
    A very stable quarterly payout. No doubt BTU is the best of breed in the coal sector.
    May 9, 2014. 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal -8% after Q1 earnings miss, weak met coal sales outlook [View news story]
    BTU and CLD reports should give a better indication of improvements in thermal coal markets and the impact on financial performance. CLD has no exposure to met coal. BTU has zero met coal exposure in US, but almost half of its Australian production is met coal.
    Apr 22, 2014. 10:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • James River Coal files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, shares halted [View news story]
    It was inevitable. You cannot afford to bleed cash for 2 years in a row. However I believe well diversified companies with strong balance sheets and positive operating cashflows will not only survive but thrive in not too distant future.
    Apr 8, 2014. 03:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coal stocks rally after BHP exec signals confidence [View news story]
    Pretty logical comments from BHP Billiton's executive. Europe could be the main driver for Coal demand for two reasons:

    1. Replacing nuclear generation with coal.

    2. If Russian political situation persists then there could be disruptions in Nat gas supply from Russia to Europe. Coal would be a natural beneficiary.
    Apr 2, 2014. 10:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy reaffirms production guidance, targeting 185M-195M tons [View news story]
    Looking forward to "Significant Upside" as they say. I am ready to wait for a couple of years, if thats what it takes.
    Feb 12, 2014. 10:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Next Leg For Miners: Up Big [View article]
    Very good article ! A very basic point but widely ignored by investors. We definitely can use cyclical nature of commodities stocks to our advantage.
    Jan 14, 2014. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
148 Comments
78 Likes