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Brandond

Brandond
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  • Care.com Brings A Hugely Profitable Fragmented Market Together [View article]
    Unfortunately, profitability is far away based on the company's recent guidance; their business model, unlike a software company, doesn't lend it self to a big beat. Company's forecast a Q1 loss of $.58 and FY14 cash burn of approx. $23M (negative EBITDA). Based on those #s, there are no buyers in this market and the stock is likely to make new lows into lockup expiry in June/July when further selling pressure occurs.

    http://bit.ly/PT7N1Y
    Apr 9 08:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ellington Financial shares back on sale [View news story]
    Anyone buying this should realize you're going to receive a K1; not worth the headache and given the potential volatility. I'd BDCs.
    Apr 7 08:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • THL Credit: Falling Yields And Growing Dividends? [View article]
    Looks like TCRD raising $300M per this N-2 filed after hours Friday. Thoughts Buzz?

    http://1.usa.gov/QOrysl
    Apr 5 07:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia Looks Attractive [View article]
    Interesting article; started a position at $22 in March and will be adding next week. Country seems corrupt and I'm no Putin fan but gains are gains.
    Apr 4 04:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After Surprisingly Successful IPO, Care.com Quiet Period Expiration Provides Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Spot on donzoamania. Some of these companies that are getting killed were fortunate enough to done a secondary at crazy multiples (Splunk, Fire Eye and Workday come to mind) before they have crated up to 30% in 2 weeks. Unfortunately for companies like Care, at their cash burn rate (per the company's guidance), they will burn cash for the remainder of 2014. The company will likely need to raise additional capital and it will be raised south of $10 with profits no where in sight. Just like 1999; private equity firms take these firms public & sucker the retail investor. I said it was bad at $19 and it's not getting any better. If you must buy Care, at least wait; market is very skiddish right now on cash burn, high pe companies.
    Apr 4 07:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com: How Low Will This Stock Go? [View article]
    Anyone buying this is bag holder to the PE firm that took this company public. No profits and burning cash tells the story of why this stock is making lower lows every week. The market is now rotating away from high PE, no profit stocks and I saw this playbook first hand in the dot com days. Without profits (not coming soon per the company), CARE will need more funds to operate. That will require what will be a very dilutive equity or convertible debt offering and the share price then goes lower.

    With so many other opportunities in the market, why invest in a stock with a bad chart, no support and big cash burn. The market is sending a signal with this stock, Chegg and other companies rushed to the public markets by PE firms looking to cash out on the retail investor. If you must own the stock, wait for a sustained upturn; better to have missed the bottom than buy here and see greater price degradation. No position in the stock but the rash of marginal IPOs recently (See King yesterday) is very concerning to retail investors.
    Mar 27 12:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Infoblox Could Become Essential To Its Customers [View article]
    Current movement has all the hallmarks of 1 or 2 money managers exiting a position, potentially related to quarter end positioning. When the dump ends and selling pressure ends, we should be ready to move higher. However, market is not treating high PE companies well lately so could be stuck in neutral till ER. At least company has almost $5/share in cash and no debt so liquidity concerns not an issue. I'm holding into earnings as upside looks big from here.
    Mar 27 12:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Halc√≥n Resources: Bakken Is A Short-Term Negative, But The Real Story Is 63% Growth [View article]
    I'm curious as to whether anyone has feedback from today's presentation at the Howard Weil Energy Conference. Stock did not act positively today so I'm assuming nothing earth shattering was discussed. Seems like the Utica was a bust and has cause the stock to trade down to sub $4. The TMS play is an unknown and seems like stock is likely to be range bound until TMS results play out, one way or the other. Don't see any catalysts other than results of the TMS play whose results are not likely to be known for a couple qtrs.

    This sound like the current situation in a nut shell to the oil experts?
    Mar 25 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com Brings A Hugely Profitable Fragmented Market Together [View article]
    I have no position in the stock and have read a few of their SEC filings as the model sounded interesting. Anyone thinking of investing here should consider the following:
    -The company burns cash and any need to raise money in the next year will likely be at low prices and dilutive.
    -Many VC firms needed to cash out and brought these companies public at the all time market highs. This was priced for perfection and as you can see over the past week, the market is starting to care about profits and these speculative, unprofitable companies are getting clobbered.
    -In July, 24 MILLION shares are no longer to lockup and can be sold. Even a small amount of sales could really pressure the price. Also, there will be almost 2 MILLION vested options that employees can exercise and cash out (think folks will want to take money off the table?)

    Company's business model seems decent but recent IPOs priced for perfection with little support (CRCM keeps making lower lows) are a quick way to lose capital IMO.
    Mar 24 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman sticks with bearish gold forecast [View news story]
    As reported by Bloomberg (not some obscure, gold bug publication), banks have been manipulating the price of gold for years with their daily price fixing scheme. I suspect various governments are also complicit as, the US for one, does not want people investing in gold. Have governments encouraged investment houses to continue to write bearish gold articles while China and Russia significantly increase their holdings? With the price fixing process under the spotlight and prices potentially being set by a more fair mechanism, this can only be a positive for the gold price. (Not a gold bug as I have a 3% allocation to gold through miners but this whole segment of the market seems manipulated)

    The Bloomberg article below if you missed it:

    http://bloom.bg/1fwjNBa
    Mar 22 07:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman sticks with bearish gold forecast [View news story]
    Funny read; not a gold bug just refuse to get manipulated by the prop trading desks of big WS firms

    http://bit.ly/1imSsjz
    Mar 21 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman sticks with bearish gold forecast [View news story]
    Translation: GS tried to manipulate the gold market, got caught on the wrong side of the trade in Jan/Feb and now they are trying to scare weak hands out of their positions. Very happy with my GDX and GDXJ positions bought in December tax loss season and not selling any time soon. Look at the 10 year chart and think where the miners trade if there is the slightest mean reversion.
    Mar 21 12:17 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walter Energy -11% premarket on gloomy BofA coal assessment [View news story]
    Funny, Morgan Stanley issues note today with $27 target; I can guarantee you that BoA's $2 target was largely driven by the fact that they were the only big bank not invited to participate in the debt offering. Stock for the brave and I don't believe the $2 target nor am I fully on board with $27. At $14, it's a double from here so one more washout and I'll buy.

    http://bit.ly/1ilDMRS
    Mar 21 08:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Infoblox Could Become Essential To Its Customers [View article]
    Good question; have not seen any news and assume longs who bought around $17 (post crash) are taking easy profits and moving on. Goldman and DB both recently upped target to $31 so plenty of upside.
    Mar 20 04:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2015: Hertz Narrows Its Moat [View article]
    I'm very long HTZ and agree with the thesis. Rental car business looks poised to run like airlines have run over past year now that consolidation has occurred in the market. I also like the fact that HTZ has removed the middleman from used rental cars and they now sell them directly, profiting thousands extra per car.

    Once the analysts wrap their models around the value of the HERC spinout, look for accumulation and upgrades. HTZ trades a lot cheaper than CAR. Also, if you apply a PE similar to United Rentals to the HTZ equipment rental spinout, you get a value of the equipment rental business being spun out that looks higher than what the HTZ stock is currently showing.

    Time will tell, but I like HTZ to outperform the overall market in the next year.
    Mar 18 04:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
317 Comments
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