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Brandond

Brandond
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  • Memorial Production Partners: Can The Distribution Survive $60 Oil? [View article]
    Very long MEMP and not selling as believe it will rebound and they appear to have the best hedges of all upstream MLPs. What nobody has discussed is the creditworthiness of their hedge counter parties. With a protracted large difference between the hedge and spot prices in the market, I don't think it is unreasonable to assume that some counter parties default on settling hedges. Hopefully MEMP's counterparties are solid.

    Not sure exactly how this applies to MEMP but the 4th comment down in this article on BEBP contains some interesting data to consider related to debt structure and periodic line/revolver redetermination. Article here:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 16, 2014. 04:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Key Takeaways From A Prominent Bullish Thesis On SodaStream [View article]
    FWIW, the kids and the wife gave up unhealthy Pepsi /Sprite/Mountain Dew years ago. Now their drinks of choice all come out of the Sodastream maker and are usually flavored seltzer. Occasionally, one of the Sodastream flavors get bought.

    Oddly enough, my wife usually just drinks unflavored seltzer out of the Sodastream maker. Needless to say, we spend a few bucks on the CO2 cartridges but overall cost seems less than buying traditional soda in the store. Most important is the health factor and the kids are not putting lots of empty calories in their bodies like what used to occur when the fridge was stocked with 12 packs of Pepsi and Sprite.

    Unclear to me whether this is a good investment but Tilson has made some decent calls (and some bad ones).
    Dec 14, 2014. 01:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron Falls With Oil Prices Despite Having Virtually No Oil Exposure [View article]
    New short volume averaging about 10% of total volume over the past month so less about shorts pushing this down now. In a downtrend and I suspect a lot of tax selling as folks have to mitigate taxes on other positions with gains. Likely to recover in January and then will be a story about the 12/31/14 quarter and guidance.
    Dec 11, 2014. 08:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com: The Ice Cube Continues To Melt [View article]
    Looks like someone at Bloomberg owed the PE firms holding CRCM shares a favor as they publish a bullish article and fail to mention the company is a complete flop. Hoping to suck in retail before the fall to $5. I'm all for buying value and looking for deals driven by tax selling but this company has no moat, bad financials and I see no reason to try bottom fishing here as it makes lower lows each month. Story below.

    http://bloom.bg/1uqX77Z
    Dec 11, 2014. 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medley Capital Update For FQ4 2014 [View article]
    Bought today; far below NAV and out of favor; tuck it away and look at it in mid 2015
    Dec 9, 2014. 01:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com: The Ice Cube Continues To Melt [View article]
    Hard to disagree with any of these points. Company should never have been brought public. Likely bought by a PE shop within 18 months for scrap value. I like to buy beaten down companies after December tax loss selling is exhausted but this company and its poor management team are a complete no touch as I don't see any catalyst for a sustained bounce in 2015. At least investors who lost money in the IPO can take solace that execs have been unable to unload any options so employees taking a hit along with investors. A departing CFO with low price, pre-ipo options says a lot.
    Dec 6, 2014. 08:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Five energy stocks liked by billionaires that could stage a comeback [View news story]
    Agreed; Best to find the companies with good combo of strong balance sheet having decent hedges in place and operating in low cost plays. Any company with large % of acreage in play with high extraction costs is not a good place to be IMO.
    Dec 6, 2014. 09:50 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five energy stocks liked by billionaires that could stage a comeback [View news story]
    Looks like the press out trying to get retail to part with their money and bail out the big guys. Cooperman has been out all year pounding the table on SD on CNBC telling people to buy when SD was above $5 and saying it's worth $12.

    You could wake up any day and find out that the big hedge fund sold their entire position (likely IMO given need to offset other large gains they have in other positions in this market). All of the listed companies are heavily in debt and are some of the weakest plays out there. Anyone buying these in the past month as they have gotten cheap, now holds shares that are even cheaper and no reason carnage cannot continue.

    Reminds me of the dumb note yesterday by FBR saying Cisco could buy FireEye. Retail bought pre-market and in early trading at $31 and above; stock closes sub $30 continuing its downtrend. Be very skeptical of the great advise offered by main street investing publication right now.
    Dec 6, 2014. 09:31 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Triangle Capital Has A Growing Non-Accrual Problem [View article]
    Market is ripping and this stock continues to bleed. New shorts have been around 15% of daily volume for the past 10 days so it's not due to a short attack. Since we are approaching tax loss selling season, it seems like price could get further depressed. Going to watch for to see how December shapes up; no need to pick a bottom as rather buy on trend reversal
    Nov 24, 2014. 06:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What to like about Ford [View news story]
    No thanks. Barron's and its pumpers don't have a particularly good track record, particularly in the auto sector. For instance, just this past July, they pumped GM at $38 saying it was going to $50. If you followed that advice, you're down 20% AND you've lost another 10% in opportunity cost had you just bought the S&P index. Auto makers have pulled forward a lot of demand thanks to subprime auto loans (underwritten by both auto makers and third parties). Also, people flourishing in the fed led rally are the 2% and most are not buying Ford. Middle class squeezed from a lot of angles so I'm not betting on any large unit growth. No position just annoyed by Barron's pump to draw in retail. Barron's GM pump below:

    http://on.barrons.com/...
    Nov 15, 2014. 12:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ebix: Expect Good Things, Even If The Market Doesn't [View article]
    Spot on but shorts keep repeating the same narrative. That's fine as I'm now up 45% in a few months and this could easily hit $25 in next 6 months.
    Nov 11, 2014. 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ebix: Expect Good Things, Even If The Market Doesn't [View article]
    Barington activity huge; they will be able to get this on the right track and get the street to give this company a normal market multiple which gets stock price well over $20
    Nov 11, 2014. 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ebix's (EBIX) CEO Robin Raina on Q3 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    One analyst on the call. What's up with that. Robin and Bob need to get busy reaching out to the analyst community and get more coverage or this stock will be range bound for years. Need institutions to be big buyers to shake out the huge short positions that have had their way with this stock.
    Nov 8, 2014. 06:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com slumps on BofA/Merrill downgrade [View news story]
    This stock performed well this past week... in its attempt to lock up the distinction of being the worst IPO of 2014. Funny to see bottom pickers touting at $15, $12, $10 and now $8. I predict more cash burn and losses, employees leave as options are far out of the money and a PE firm eventually buys this flawed company for scrap value, possibly for $3/share.
    Nov 1, 2014. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ebix buys back 1.64M shares [View news story]
    Company daring shorts to do spread more mistruths through one of their "research pieces". Where's Gotham City? Would love to see weak hands shaken out and have Ebix be able to repurchase a ton of shares sub $12. Folks, this is a high recurring revenue business with largely fixed costs that is reducing share count and paying over 2% dividend. Complete no brainer for the patient investor. If you're a trader, can't help you on this one. Buy and hold.
    Oct 16, 2014. 05:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
376 Comments
586 Likes