Seeking Alpha

Brandond

Brandond
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Brandond's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Ebix's Share Buy-Back Program: An Updated Fair Value Estimate [View article]
    Goldman bid roughly $20/share. Speculation was that Goldman withdrew its bid under the MAC clause in the Merger Agreement. Reason per the WSJ was " The deal’s demise was triggered by news the U.S. attorney for northern Georgia launched a formal probe into the company’s accounting and reporting practices".

    I suspect deal was also withdrawn since Ebix stockholders were going to sue and make closing difficult since they felt $20 significantly undervalued Ebix. So Goldman had risk from both sides if they closed.

    Very long and I know the company well FWIW.
    Sep 19 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medley Capital: An Attractive Hedge For BDC Portfolios [View article]
    Using today's selloff to significantly add to position. Always take advantage of panics and short manipulations to enter or add to positions. I'll collect the dividend and not worry about the price as it will recover within months, if not sooner.
    Sep 16 01:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Insiders Are Buying Martin Midstream Stock [View article]
    This company popped on my screener early in the summer as one of the worst performers in the space. It then seemed to get some momo and now getting hit hard on the news that it is coming out of the Alerian MLP index next week.

    Don't know a lot about the company but any good articles on or guidance on whether this is a buy if price further erodes? Yield is good but I'm a total return guy so getting 8.9% for a year with zero price appreciation doesn't do a lot for me.
    Sep 13 08:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hercules Technology: BDC Risk Profiles [View article]
    This is a no touch BDC for me due to it's large premium to NAV. I'm very familiar to HTGC as I had venture debt with them as CFO at a prior company and on company exit, their warrant coverage provided a nice kicker to HTGC. And this is what I think some fail to take into account.

    Part of the reason HTGC trades at such a premium is that investors ascribe a lot of value to the warrants they hold in their portfolio companies. Some of these companies (such as Box which is expected to have an enormous valuation) may not go public if the market becomes more rational and/or corrects. Seems like investors are betting that the good times will keep on rolling for a long time and money losing portfolio companies will enjoy sky high valuations forever. I'm not bearish on the overall market but having lived through the dot com times in the front row, I see a lot of similarities with certain companies.
    Sep 12 06:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Memorial Production Partners: Making Sense Of The Recent Secondary Offering [View article]
    The dist is not increasing 18%. The author of the article used $.65/share as an example to show the increasing portion of the IDRs that goes to the GP IF the distribution were to rise to $.65.
    Sep 5 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Memorial Production Partners: Making Sense Of The Recent Secondary Offering [View article]
    Been long since $19 but not putting any more capital here as very time it starts to make a decent move, another offering is shoveled out. With all the extra units now outstanding, it seems that the company will need to execute with a high degree of precision or their coverage ratio could easily go sub 1x. Also, this article fails to mention the impact that a VERY generous IDR structure that the GP has in MEMP's distributions. In the future, it looks to be very difficult for meaningful distribution growth due to the large IDR cut to be taken by MRD. This summarizes the IDR structure for those interested.

    http://bit.ly/1pBZh4t
    Sep 4 10:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ebix rallies on buyback announcement [View news story]
    Spot on with the "Only $200M". Smart move by Ebix to take the manipulators out to the woodshed. No syndicate would loan Ebix $150M (with increase possible to $200M) if the syndicate had not done a lot of diligence. Raina is going to smartly lever up, repurchase shares and cause a nice short squeeze as the ultra low PE multiple moves toward a SAAS multiple. $20 stock within a couple of months.
    Aug 25 02:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Concerns About The Utica Weighing On PDC Energy's Share Price [View article]
    While I don't always pay attention to what fund managers say on TV or in the press, I always listen closely to what Scott Black says. I followed him into SWKS at $20 and WLL at $50 when he pounded the table on both. over 70% gains on both. A few months ago, Black was pushing PDCE hard so loaded up at $52. Production numbers look great and its small market cap seems to make it a good acquisition candidate for one of the larger players.

    Seems odd how weak it trades and upside at $56 looks a lot better than other names that have had good runs over the past 4 months. This article also has Black mentioning PDCE:

    http://bit.ly/1pthNxD
    Aug 24 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought Ebix Ahead Of Earnings [View article]
    As usual, longs providing balanced and insightful comments. For those who don't follow Ebix, bear in mind that shorts (Gotham Research, Sam Antar and other anonymous manipulators) often come on here, in stocktwits and in Twitter and make unsubstantiated claims of fraud and massive ongoing government investigations.

    I've been long over the past 2 years and have been fortunate to have traded in and out before any of the big declines. Failed to top tick but avoided big losses like the fall from $20 when Goldman backed out of the deal to buy Ebix. Recently built a large position below $13 because this market is expensive and Ebix is one of the most undervalued companies I can find. They generate a lot of cash and with their new line, have the firepower to buy back stock in the event shorts attack the easily manipulated, low float small cap.

    There is a lot to like here but there is some risk. Objective investors believe the money laundering investigation was initiated through allegations by a former disgruntled employee but if significant wrongdoing is found, lower prices are likely. The royalty disagreement with Microsoft is pretty minor IMO and these types of disagreements happen all the time in the industry (just not usually publicized to the extent you see with Ebix). I'm not particularly concerned about the SEC matters as these matters could easily be 100% resolved-the SEC seldom publicizes the "all clear" signal when a matter is resolved. It is highly unlikely that lenders would be giving Ebix a $200M debt facility if there were material issues-you can be sure that a LOT of diligence was performed.

    I'm sure the shorts will come on here and talk about companies like Enron, Crazy Eddies, and MCI WorldCom fooling their auditors for year. Folks, times have changed and the level of work performed by auditors (especially for higher risk, headline driven companies like Ebix) is massive. I've seen the difference first hand as the CFO of 4 different companies. Recall, Anderson partners lost all of their partner equity when their firm was dissolved. The remaining audit firm partners do not want to lose their majority of their life savings and they have changed to vastly expand the level of work to root out fraud. Think about how few fraud cases have occurred in the US in the past 5 years. So, my suggestion is to ignore the fear mongerers and take faith in the fact that Ebix's auditors and tax preparers have subjected Ebix to an extreme level of scrutiny and reported financial results are likely as clean as any public company out there.

    You can listen to the shorts or you can go against the grain and buy this cash generator trading under 10x current year profits and collect a dividend along the way.
    Aug 9 08:14 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PDC Energy misses Q2 numbers but raises full-year production guidance [View news story]
    Great quarter but I don't understand why one of the big guys doesn't step in and buy them. Good acreage and easily digestible market cap. Happy to hold and see 2015 growth.
    Aug 8 09:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Memorial Production Partners Back In The Bargain Bin [View article]
    For those interested, here are the specifics around the IDR structure:

    http://bit.ly/1pBZh4t
    Aug 6 06:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Memorial Production Partners Back In The Bargain Bin [View article]
    Casey

    I have a mid size position and considering adding this or another upstream if weakness continues. With results now it, it would be nice if you provided a comment to tie your article's point to actual results. Also, more info on the IDRs would be helpful; cannot find specifics and the 25% IDR # seems pretty important to investors' decision to buy/add.
    Aug 6 06:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Colorado reaches deal to remove anti-fracking initiatives from ballot [View news story]
    Buy PDCE with both hands
    Aug 4 03:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Care.com At A Crossroads [View article]
    If you like it at $8.60, you'll love it at $3. Look at the chart. Worst IPO of 2013. Have seen people discussing a turnaround since $20, then $15m then $10. Far too many other choice in this market to screw around with this loser stock.

    Employees done with lock up do hope fools buy as they need an outlet for those $1 strike options they got pre-ipo.
    Aug 2 06:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PDC Energy - Is Selling Overdone? [View article]
    Seems like this company is off a lot of radars; I bought a starter position yesterday based partly on this article but also on the fact that the stock was green all day when a lot of stocks were off 2%-4%. Stock ended slight negative but trend looks to have reversed and fresh analyst targets of $70 make risk reward good.
    Aug 1 06:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
347 Comments
544 Likes