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What's the Real Story With the Price of Crude Oil?

I think the reason for future prices to be higher than the spot prices is, that real physical buyers were caught with there pants down. They thought oil prices would come down along with the growth of the US economy. That's why refiners don't make any money, compared to let's say 2006.

Now they seem to get, that the oil supply situation won't get any better than this, which makes 140$ for June 2016 WTI looks like a real bargain.