ship shape and bristol fashion's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/198419/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/79632-oil-bubble-spin?source=feed#comment-177744 177744
But where is that recession?

Unless there is some giant sea monster out there, which developed an appetite for dry bulk carriers, the Baltic Dry Index signals a strong world economy.

Cheap oil is consumed!

Unless you discover a Ghawar and Cantarel field, you are not going to see cheap oil again. I don't think oil companies will keep fields online, where the per barrel cost is higher than the price. If i have costs of 60$ per barrel and the barrel costs 59.90$, i shut the valve and open it up again when oil is at 75$. Simple. Low prices will kill low prices!

NEW FIELDS ARE BEING DISCOVERED, BECAUSE OIL IS EXPENSIVE, OIL IS NOT UP IN SPITE OF NEW DISCOVERIES! ]]> Mon, 02 Jun 2008 03:26:51 -0400
But where is that recession?

Unless there is some giant sea monster out there, which developed an appetite for dry bulk carriers, the Baltic Dry Index signals a strong world economy.

Cheap oil is consumed!

Unless you discover a Ghawar and Cantarel field, you are not going to see cheap oil again. I don't think oil companies will keep fields online, where the per barrel cost is higher than the price. If i have costs of 60$ per barrel and the barrel costs 59.90$, i shut the valve and open it up again when oil is at 75$. Simple. Low prices will kill low prices!

NEW FIELDS ARE BEING DISCOVERED, BECAUSE OIL IS EXPENSIVE, OIL IS NOT UP IN SPITE OF NEW DISCOVERIES! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79518-3-down-days-in-oil?source=feed#comment-177505 177505 What will happen to the price of electricity, when everybody drives an electric car?

It's not like coal prices and uranium prices did not go up.

]]> Sun, 01 Jun 2008 10:30:15 -0400 What will happen to the price of electricity, when everybody drives an electric car?

It's not like coal prices and uranium prices did not go up.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79522-is-oil-a-bubble-part-two?source=feed#comment-177502 177502
where did you get that nonsense, that demand and price have a linear relation?]]> Sun, 01 Jun 2008 10:24:35 -0400
where did you get that nonsense, that demand and price have a linear relation?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79522-is-oil-a-bubble-part-two?source=feed#comment-177501 177501
1. It makes new reserves recoverable.

2. It forces economies around the world to be more efficient in their
use of energy.

3. Oil north of a hundred bucks a barrel is a great opportunity particularly
for the United States. US oil service and offshore drilling companies are
the undisputed leader in the world market.

4. For Ford, GM and Chrysler it means: You either make a technological
leap forward or you go bankrupt.

Wouldn't it be nice if US car makers were leaders in technology for a change? ]]> Sun, 01 Jun 2008 10:23:30 -0400
1. It makes new reserves recoverable.

2. It forces economies around the world to be more efficient in their
use of energy.

3. Oil north of a hundred bucks a barrel is a great opportunity particularly
for the United States. US oil service and offshore drilling companies are
the undisputed leader in the world market.

4. For Ford, GM and Chrysler it means: You either make a technological
leap forward or you go bankrupt.

Wouldn't it be nice if US car makers were leaders in technology for a change? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79522-is-oil-a-bubble-part-two?source=feed#comment-176765 176765
Everything money can buy is a potential investment: Stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, real estate, stamps, old handguns...

Every driver may feel free to hedge his risk by buying the USO or a similar product.

]]> Fri, 30 May 2008 11:49:14 -0400
Everything money can buy is a potential investment: Stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, real estate, stamps, old handguns...

Every driver may feel free to hedge his risk by buying the USO or a similar product.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79366-volatility-it-s-the-oil-stupid?source=feed#comment-176502 176502 Fri, 30 May 2008 03:47:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79132-perfect-oil-storm-brewing-in-the-u-s?source=feed#comment-175749 175749
Should shoot all oil bears.

online.wsj.com/article...
]]> Thu, 29 May 2008 02:56:48 -0400
Should shoot all oil bears.

online.wsj.com/article...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79119-oil-looks-toppy-time-to-short?source=feed#comment-175266 175266
BTW, I would buy drillers and services ahead of the correction, since the market is going to put a lot of money to work in that sector, when the oil price correction occurs. May be we've seen the correction already, considering how nicely oil bounced of its support today.


]]> Wed, 28 May 2008 11:48:11 -0400
BTW, I would buy drillers and services ahead of the correction, since the market is going to put a lot of money to work in that sector, when the oil price correction occurs. May be we've seen the correction already, considering how nicely oil bounced of its support today.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79132-perfect-oil-storm-brewing-in-the-u-s?source=feed#comment-175260 175260
I am not one of those guys, who cries 'Mad Max ante portas!' all day long, but denying the Peak oil theory is simply illogic. Whether it happened 2005 or it happens in a 1000 years, one day there is going to be a maximum daily output and then a decline. That has nothing to do with emotions.

The best evidence for the problems the oil industry has maintaining daily output is the outstanding revenue growth of the oil service industry. One would assume, that oil output should grow nicely like their revenue, but it is not.

Consider: Even the IEA, usually behind the curve, is looking deeply into the 400 biggest fields. Should be an interesting report in November. ]]> Wed, 28 May 2008 11:44:19 -0400
I am not one of those guys, who cries 'Mad Max ante portas!' all day long, but denying the Peak oil theory is simply illogic. Whether it happened 2005 or it happens in a 1000 years, one day there is going to be a maximum daily output and then a decline. That has nothing to do with emotions.

The best evidence for the problems the oil industry has maintaining daily output is the outstanding revenue growth of the oil service industry. One would assume, that oil output should grow nicely like their revenue, but it is not.

Consider: Even the IEA, usually behind the curve, is looking deeply into the 400 biggest fields. Should be an interesting report in November. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79066-the-relationship-between-oil-drillers-and-refiners?source=feed#comment-175009 175009 Wed, 28 May 2008 05:26:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78950-oil-manipulations-exposed?source=feed#comment-174619 174619 Tue, 27 May 2008 13:20:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78798-crude-oil-prices-bears-will-soon-win-out?source=feed#comment-174326 174326 Tue, 27 May 2008 07:07:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78798-crude-oil-prices-bears-will-soon-win-out?source=feed#comment-174319 174319 Tue, 27 May 2008 06:29:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78745-the-self-defeating-oil-surge?source=feed#comment-174317 174317 Tue, 27 May 2008 06:25:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78899-raising-margin-requirements-may-spike-oil-prices-higher?source=feed#comment-174313 174313
The problem is, that people just don't want to face facts. I guess that's why Rome fell.

Is it possible, that a new kind of fungus affects wheat prices? Oh no, it must be speculators.

Is it possible, that all the good iron ore and copper mines are already in a mature phase. So now mines with lower grades have got to be brought online, which makes these minerals obviously more expensive.
Oh no! It must be speculation!

The same thing would be true for oil and a lot of other stuff.

On top of that: People are stuck in the past. They really have trouble to accept, that once 'savage' economies like China are becoming a force.

If we don't start to face facts and make the necessary changes, we will fall like Rome.

Burning witches never saved a problem, it only calmed down the mob.]]> Tue, 27 May 2008 05:31:44 -0400
The problem is, that people just don't want to face facts. I guess that's why Rome fell.

Is it possible, that a new kind of fungus affects wheat prices? Oh no, it must be speculators.

Is it possible, that all the good iron ore and copper mines are already in a mature phase. So now mines with lower grades have got to be brought online, which makes these minerals obviously more expensive.
Oh no! It must be speculation!

The same thing would be true for oil and a lot of other stuff.

On top of that: People are stuck in the past. They really have trouble to accept, that once 'savage' economies like China are becoming a force.

If we don't start to face facts and make the necessary changes, we will fall like Rome.

Burning witches never saved a problem, it only calmed down the mob.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78749-what-s-the-real-story-with-the-price-of-crude-oil?source=feed#comment-174300 174300
What matters is daily production!

You can't make gas and diesel from reserves in the ground, only from production.


]]> Tue, 27 May 2008 03:41:46 -0400
What matters is daily production!

You can't make gas and diesel from reserves in the ground, only from production.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78798-crude-oil-prices-bears-will-soon-win-out?source=feed#comment-174298 174298
if you would read something besides socialist propaganda, you would know, that for example china's diesel imports jumped 17-fold.

You are not just a socialist, but also a nationalist, who cannot believe, that once savage nations catch up to the US.

]]> Tue, 27 May 2008 03:38:52 -0400
if you would read something besides socialist propaganda, you would know, that for example china's diesel imports jumped 17-fold.

You are not just a socialist, but also a nationalist, who cannot believe, that once savage nations catch up to the US.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78798-crude-oil-prices-bears-will-soon-win-out?source=feed#comment-173978 173978 Mon, 26 May 2008 09:59:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78793-oil-companies-paid-more-than-bottom-75-of-taxpayers?source=feed#comment-173965 173965 Mon, 26 May 2008 09:38:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78715-understanding-crude-oil-prices?source=feed#comment-173903 173903 Mon, 26 May 2008 04:48:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78749-what-s-the-real-story-with-the-price-of-crude-oil?source=feed#comment-173901 173901
'They (heating oil prices) defied crude's pullback Thursday to break $4 a gallon after China's customs administration reported a 17-fold jump in diesel imports last month,...'

Hoarding is conspiracy bull...

Demand is real.]]> Mon, 26 May 2008 04:31:35 -0400
'They (heating oil prices) defied crude's pullback Thursday to break $4 a gallon after China's customs administration reported a 17-fold jump in diesel imports last month,...'

Hoarding is conspiracy bull...

Demand is real.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78743-the-case-for-not-drilling-anwr?source=feed#comment-173621 173621 Sun, 25 May 2008 14:02:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78616-is-oil-a-bubble-part-one?source=feed#comment-173558 173558
1. Emerging markets have huge economic growth. Right or wrong?
Right.

2. Anyone think, that growth of that magnitude can be achieved without
substantial growth in demand for oil and other commodities?
Not really.

3. Is it true, that when there is one pie, and suddenly twice as many
people want a piece of that pie, that the price for a piece is going to
double? Yes!

4. Is it true, that every 'super giant field' (which made cheap oil possible)
on the planet is in decline?
Yes.

5. Do oil companies around the world scramble to bring new production
online? Yes, otherwise oil service companies wouldn't make as much
money as the do.

6. Is it true, that this new production is mostly absorbed by the decline
of existing production? Yes, obviously.

7. Now the important question: Is new production coming online ONLY
because of the seemingly high price of oil? Yes, definitely!

8. Is any oil company going to develop projects with per barrel costs
north of 65$, when the price of oil is 65$ or less? Hardly.

To sum up:

NEW OIL FIELDS ARE BEING DEVELOPED, BECAUSE OIL IS UP,
OIL IS NOT UP IN SPITE OF NEW PRODUCTION!]]> Sun, 25 May 2008 12:26:16 -0400
1. Emerging markets have huge economic growth. Right or wrong?
Right.

2. Anyone think, that growth of that magnitude can be achieved without
substantial growth in demand for oil and other commodities?
Not really.

3. Is it true, that when there is one pie, and suddenly twice as many
people want a piece of that pie, that the price for a piece is going to
double? Yes!

4. Is it true, that every 'super giant field' (which made cheap oil possible)
on the planet is in decline?
Yes.

5. Do oil companies around the world scramble to bring new production
online? Yes, otherwise oil service companies wouldn't make as much
money as the do.

6. Is it true, that this new production is mostly absorbed by the decline
of existing production? Yes, obviously.

7. Now the important question: Is new production coming online ONLY
because of the seemingly high price of oil? Yes, definitely!

8. Is any oil company going to develop projects with per barrel costs
north of 65$, when the price of oil is 65$ or less? Hardly.

To sum up:

NEW OIL FIELDS ARE BEING DEVELOPED, BECAUSE OIL IS UP,
OIL IS NOT UP IN SPITE OF NEW PRODUCTION!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78708-crude-oil-going-parabolic-the-good-news-and-bad-news?source=feed#comment-173557 173557 Sun, 25 May 2008 12:21:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78715-understanding-crude-oil-prices?source=feed#comment-173538 173538
They need these rigs to drill additional wells in existing fields in order to make up for the decline. When the natural pressure drops you need to apply artificial pressure by drilling new wells and injecting seawater for example.

This is one reason oil is getting more expensive. The costs are simply going up.]]> Sun, 25 May 2008 11:53:23 -0400
They need these rigs to drill additional wells in existing fields in order to make up for the decline. When the natural pressure drops you need to apply artificial pressure by drilling new wells and injecting seawater for example.

This is one reason oil is getting more expensive. The costs are simply going up.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78745-the-self-defeating-oil-surge?source=feed#comment-173510 173510
1. Emerging markets have huge economic growth. Right or wrong?
Right.

2. Anyone think, that growth of that magnitude can be achieved without
substantial growth in demand for oil and other commodities?
Not really.

3. Is it true, that when there is one pie, and suddenly twice as many
people want a piece of that pie, that the price for a piece is going to
double? Yes!

4. Is it true, that every 'super giant field' (which made cheap oil possible)
on the planet is in decline?
Yes.

5. Do oil companies around the world scramble to bring new production
online? Yes, otherwise oil service companies wouldn't make as much
money as the do.

6. Is it true, that this new production is mostly absorbed by the decline
of existing production? Yes, obviously.

7. Now the important question: Is new production coming online ONLY
because of the seemingly high price of oil? Yes, definitely!

8. Is any oil company going to develop projects with per barrel costs
north of 65$, when the price of oil is 65$ or less? Hardly.

To sum up:

NEW OIL FIELDS ARE BEING DEVELOPED, BECAUSE OIL IS UP,
OIL IS NOT UP IN SPITE OF NEW PRODUCTION!]]> Sun, 25 May 2008 11:10:50 -0400
1. Emerging markets have huge economic growth. Right or wrong?
Right.

2. Anyone think, that growth of that magnitude can be achieved without
substantial growth in demand for oil and other commodities?
Not really.

3. Is it true, that when there is one pie, and suddenly twice as many
people want a piece of that pie, that the price for a piece is going to
double? Yes!

4. Is it true, that every 'super giant field' (which made cheap oil possible)
on the planet is in decline?
Yes.

5. Do oil companies around the world scramble to bring new production
online? Yes, otherwise oil service companies wouldn't make as much
money as the do.

6. Is it true, that this new production is mostly absorbed by the decline
of existing production? Yes, obviously.

7. Now the important question: Is new production coming online ONLY
because of the seemingly high price of oil? Yes, definitely!

8. Is any oil company going to develop projects with per barrel costs
north of 65$, when the price of oil is 65$ or less? Hardly.

To sum up:

NEW OIL FIELDS ARE BEING DEVELOPED, BECAUSE OIL IS UP,
OIL IS NOT UP IN SPITE OF NEW PRODUCTION!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78708-crude-oil-going-parabolic-the-good-news-and-bad-news?source=feed#comment-173500 173500
Even if such facilities exist, how much can it be? Let's say 10 days worth of production. That would be around 850-860 million barrels (which would be gigantic tank farms; where are they please; Think: commercial inventories in the entire US are 320 million barrels right now). Anyone really think this is responsible for 70$ of the price of WTI? Come on!

Here's what's going on:

1. Emerging markets have huge economic growth. Right or wrong?
Right.

2. Anyone think, that growth of that magnitude can be achieved without
substantial growth in demand for oil and other commodities?
Not really.

3. Is it true, that when there is one pie, and suddenly twice as many
people want a piece of that pie, that the price for a piece is going to
double? Yes!

4. Is it true, that every 'super giant field' (which made cheap oil possible)
on the planet is in decline?
Yes.

5. Do oil companies around the world scramble to bring new production
online? Yes, otherwise oil service companies wouldn't make as much
money as the do.

6. Is it true, that this new production is mostly absorbed by the decline
of existing production? Yes, obviously.

7. Now the important question: Is new production coming online ONLY
because of the seemingly high price of oil? Yes, definitely!

8. Is any oil company going to develop projects with per barrel costs
north of 65$, when the price of oil is 65$ or less? Hardly.

To sum up:

NEW OIL FIELDS ARE BEING DEVELOPED, BECAUSE OIL IS UP,
OIL IS NOT UP IN SPITE OF NEW PRODUCTION!



]]> Sun, 25 May 2008 11:00:29 -0400
Even if such facilities exist, how much can it be? Let's say 10 days worth of production. That would be around 850-860 million barrels (which would be gigantic tank farms; where are they please; Think: commercial inventories in the entire US are 320 million barrels right now). Anyone really think this is responsible for 70$ of the price of WTI? Come on!

Here's what's going on:

1. Emerging markets have huge economic growth. Right or wrong?
Right.

2. Anyone think, that growth of that magnitude can be achieved without
substantial growth in demand for oil and other commodities?
Not really.

3. Is it true, that when there is one pie, and suddenly twice as many
people want a piece of that pie, that the price for a piece is going to
double? Yes!

4. Is it true, that every 'super giant field' (which made cheap oil possible)
on the planet is in decline?
Yes.

5. Do oil companies around the world scramble to bring new production
online? Yes, otherwise oil service companies wouldn't make as much
money as the do.

6. Is it true, that this new production is mostly absorbed by the decline
of existing production? Yes, obviously.

7. Now the important question: Is new production coming online ONLY
because of the seemingly high price of oil? Yes, definitely!

8. Is any oil company going to develop projects with per barrel costs
north of 65$, when the price of oil is 65$ or less? Hardly.

To sum up:

NEW OIL FIELDS ARE BEING DEVELOPED, BECAUSE OIL IS UP,
OIL IS NOT UP IN SPITE OF NEW PRODUCTION!



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78708-crude-oil-going-parabolic-the-good-news-and-bad-news?source=feed#comment-173487 173487 Sun, 25 May 2008 10:24:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78715-understanding-crude-oil-prices?source=feed#comment-173486 173486 Sun, 25 May 2008 10:23:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78749-what-s-the-real-story-with-the-price-of-crude-oil?source=feed#comment-173484 173484
Now they seem to get, that the oil supply situation won't get any better than this, which makes 140$ for June 2016 WTI looks like a real bargain.

]]> Sun, 25 May 2008 10:17:52 -0400
Now they seem to get, that the oil supply situation won't get any better than this, which makes 140$ for June 2016 WTI looks like a real bargain.

]]>