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  • Perfect Oil Storm Brewing in the U.S. [View article]
    Check this out:

    Should shoot all oil bears.

    online.wsj.com/article...
    May 29 02:56 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Perfect Oil Storm Brewing in the U.S. [View article]
    eric

    I am not one of those guys, who cries 'Mad Max ante portas!' all day long, but denying the Peak oil theory is simply illogic. Whether it happened 2005 or it happens in a 1000 years, one day there is going to be a maximum daily output and then a decline. That has nothing to do with emotions.

    The best evidence for the problems the oil industry has maintaining daily output is the outstanding revenue growth of the oil service industry. One would assume, that oil output should grow nicely like their revenue, but it is not.

    Consider: Even the IEA, usually behind the curve, is looking deeply into the 400 biggest fields. Should be an interesting report in November.
    May 28 11:44 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Going Parabolic: The Good News and Bad News  [View article]
    Exactly.
    May 25 12:21 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Going Parabolic: The Good News and Bad News  [View article]
    The author states, that the oil market is primarily driven by speculation. That is quite a statement, since the author doesn't deliver any evidence to support this. Conspiracy theories about huge rogue offshore storage facilities are just as ridiculous as the 'area 51' crap.

    Even if such facilities exist, how much can it be? Let's say 10 days worth of production. That would be around 850-860 million barrels (which would be gigantic tank farms; where are they please; Think: commercial inventories in the entire US are 320 million barrels right now). Anyone really think this is responsible for 70$ of the price of WTI? Come on!

    Here's what's going on:

    1. Emerging markets have huge economic growth. Right or wrong?
    Right.

    2. Anyone think, that growth of that magnitude can be achieved without
    substantial growth in demand for oil and other commodities?
    Not really.

    3. Is it true, that when there is one pie, and suddenly twice as many
    people want a piece of that pie, that the price for a piece is going to
    double? Yes!

    4. Is it true, that every 'super giant field' (which made cheap oil possible)
    on the planet is in decline?
    Yes.

    5. Do oil companies around the world scramble to bring new production
    online? Yes, otherwise oil service companies wouldn't make as much
    money as the do.

    6. Is it true, that this new production is mostly absorbed by the decline
    of existing production? Yes, obviously.

    7. Now the important question: Is new production coming online ONLY
    because of the seemingly high price of oil? Yes, definitely!

    8. Is any oil company going to develop projects with per barrel costs
    north of 65$, when the price of oil is 65$ or less? Hardly.

    To sum up:

    NEW OIL FIELDS ARE BEING DEVELOPED, BECAUSE OIL IS UP,
    OIL IS NOT UP IN SPITE OF NEW PRODUCTION!
    May 25 11:00 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil Going Parabolic: The Good News and Bad News  [View article]
    Hear, hear A Smart Trader!
    May 25 10:24 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
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