Andy1234

The End of 'Easy Oil'

Both are good....I own both.


On Oct 18 08:47 PM fireball wrote:

> elliot
> i'm looking at rig and atwood. any thoughts? any better for deepwater?

O Canada (Part II): There's Gold in Them Thar Hills - and Plains

I think Canada is also a great spot to be. I am invested in their REITS, energy trusts, and mining companies.

The Mother of All Bubbles

well....only a percentage of the population voted him in....everyone else has to live with the others decision.

furthermore....people are just voting for money....which is the end of this republic.


On Jul 06 09:44 AM semperpax wrote:

> We've got no one to blame but ourselves. We elected Obama and the
> criminals and idiots in Congress.

The Case for Precious Metals Is Only Getting Stronger

My question is this.

Money is released to the public through loans correct? Or through some government program of some sort.

Is it possible that the housing crash (reset of Alt-A and Option ARMS) will delay the hit of inflation? Wouldn't the destruction of these loans/banks/etc just offset any newly created money in the short term? The banks know they have a lot of deliquent loans...they know the foreclosures coming....and their reserves are increasing....at a too slow of rate anyway.

So how is this money that the fed is creating going to hit the streets if all the banks are hoarding it? Would the credit loss be greater than the new money created?

The fed cannot raise interest rates as this will create further inflation UNLESS they can get people to buy their bonds...otherwise, since they are on basically adjustable rate debt themselves....they would just be increasing the interest payments on their own debt.

I agree with everyones view long term....but not sure about short term (before 2012) because of a deeper housing crisis.

Canada: The Industrialized Market for the Coming Decade

I bought heavily into the canadian REIT area.....as I also believe Canada will grow substationally in the future.

So why did I pick the reits. I do think the canadian dollar (loonie) will appreciate. But if you are mining the stuff and your operating costs are in loonies, and your selling product in US dollars.....you are now stuck with the scenario of....does the loonie appreciate faster than the commodity being sold in US dollars...or vice versa.

If the loonie appreciates more quickly....then the cost of production increases quickier than the cost of goods sold.....leading to a pinching of margins over time than an expansion....its a tough call what will appreciate more quickly.

The reits don't have this currency problem....as costs and revenue are both in the same currency.

One company that could get crushed if they don't hedge is nintendo...major sales in USD....costs in Yen.

Its just something to keep in mind.....but again....I own a lot in canadian oil sands and penn west energy, etc.....just because thats where the reserves reside.

Citigroup Makes a Good Move: Preparing to Buy Out Uncle Sam

I don't think it would dilute the shares....you are simply transferring the shares to new owners....not creating new shares correct?

You issue X amount to new holders and buy out existing X amount from the government.

Five Charts to Rule Them All: Bullish Commodity Trends Continue

you do realize that the option arm Alt-A resets are just starting to ramp up. they should peak in late 2011.......

Need More Bullishness for a Correction

I think the market is going to pull back at some point in the near future. Alt-a and option ARM resets......and dollar strengthening since it seems everyone is betting on the dollar to go down. When people start stacking bets all in one direction......eventually it will get tired and fall out.

I suspect to see more bailouts/stimulous when the market pulls back again. I will buy more silver/gold/whatever is down (oil) when the market corrects.....and some riskier small caps which will probably get crushed.

They say the market is forward looking.....and has taken into account the option arms and Alt-A....but its different when they start hitting the market and the banks.

Why Invest in Oil Over Alternative Energy

Well.......We know that energy is going to increase.....as long as the world population increases.

Rather than trying to determine which fuel source....or energy source is the best for the future.....wouldn't it be prudent to invest in companies that sell electricity......I mean.....they are going to sell more energy.....and they will more than likely always choose the best source of energy in terms of environment, cost, government regulations, etc. That seems to be the best play here. Even better....find one that will have a favorable currency exchange rate if you think the dollar is going to fall out.

I do play different energy sources......and I agree with the author.....but its always best to diversify amongst the energy sources....uranium, oil, coal, NG. There is bound to be some HUGE winners in this arena long term.

And if energy is going to become more scarce in the future (especially liquid fuel)...wouldn't it also make sense to look at vehicles which require liquid fuels of high energy density and look at these areas. Which industries use high amount of trucks or huge machinery that might not be able to operate any other way....its possible that if energy prices increase....the cost of mining, producing food, etc will increase substationally......even the cost to build homes. Its possible that investments directly into these commodities will do well in the long term as well. Lots of opportunities!

What's Wrong with Market Speculation?

Well.....what fuels demand? what sets the price of oil and other commodities?

The amount of money in circulation......

How is the money controlled in circulation? By loans and the federal reserve.


Isn't it possible.....that speculators are only chasing prices...not setting them?

If speculation was in fact causing the prices...wouldn't there be a disconnect between delivery prices and spot prices? there is no such thing.

And the market is forward looking......with all the projects coming offline......I think people are seeing the problem.....future supply will decrease....current inventories are high (because of the recent run up in oil prices in 2008). They are looking ahead and saying....there is going to be a large problem.....we need prices higher to spur growth in oil supply.

If oil prices are low today....the future oil supply will be less....as todays oil prices increase....future oil supply will be greater. Its a double edged sword....where the market is right and wrong 100% of the time...and is why the price moves so rapidly to adjust.....

Why Did the Shanghai Market Collapse?

One must remember that there can be a vast disconnect between the stock market....and GDP figures for the economy.


If you look around the world....you can see economies expand while at the same time their stock markets contract over the same period. Its happened in China before.

Brazil: Policy Changes Signaling New Era of Oil Production Underway

There isn't much that can replace fossil fuels.

I mean....we have some constraints....the second law of thermodynamics.

Basically all energy comes from the sun on this planet....stored in various ways. Fossil fuels are just a store of the sunlight.....they are highly dense energy sources already packaged.....when uranium, coal, NG, and oil become to dwindle......we will have to move to solar/wind/or some sort of new nuclear fusion source or fission. I see the nuclear options as viable....and wind and solar being more difficult to use.....as they are energy intensive to gather all the materials, make, and install through out the entire process. But we'll see what happens.

The Rise of Inflation Premiums

I personally don't think the fed can raise interest rates because of multiple reasons.

1) The interest on their short term interest rates would be HUGE...this would lead to massive money printing just to cover the interest on the debt.
2) House prices would tank yet again....as interest rates would need to rise in order for the velocity of money to be slowed down and saved.
3) The two above would slow growth of the economy or kill the economy......I don't know how the fed can balance a bubble forever.


We currently have malinvestment everywhere.....at some point these malinvestment need to be cleaned.....and the way the government is choosing technologies to invest in, and what not to invest in, and the rules/regulations they set through policy will create massive distortions....once that low interest rates will not be able to resolve.

What we need to do is deregulate in real terms. Remove all regulations and let companies fail who are incompetant.....that ultimately is the regulation...being able to survive. Remove all government scholarships, grants, etc. Remove regulation and paperwork on the health care side etc. We should see prices come down dramitically. Prices still continue to drop with operations that are selective....like lasic eye surgery and cosmetic surgery.

Central planning does not work.....we need the free market to do it. And we need to slowly get ourselves away from government. Just MO.



On Aug 27 08:28 PM JeffDB wrote:

> On Aug 27 05:40 PM Erwan Mahe wrote:

The Rise of Inflation Premiums

Inflation is just the increase in money supply.

If the economy is contracting in output....and the same amount of money is in the system....the result is further inflation as GDP has contracted.


The best analogy I have heard for inflation goes something like this.


Glass = size of the economy
Water = money in that economy


Let's say you take a snapshot of the economy and at that time the economy is a glass. The glass is half full of water (money).

Now.....let's determine ways to create inflation in this economy.

In order for inflation to be created...only TWO possible things can occur to result in inflation.

1) Water is added to the cup.
2) The size of the glass shrinks.

Vice versa for deflation.
1) Water is taken away from the cup.
2) The size of the glass gets larger.


I think whats happening now....is the government is injecting crap loads of money into banks.....but the money is not being loaned out....and people are paying the debts down....decreasing the real money supply in circulation.


as a result......prices need to come down for the market to clear.

You can also tilt the glass and have money flow from one sector to another....but jobs will be shifted from one sector to another if the shift is large enough. It will not result in higher inflation across the board....because the money supply (water) remained the same.

A lot of people say Higher oil prices create inflation. It does not create inflaton....it simply is a result of money printing....or demand/supply issues. It cannot create inflation. If you think it can....please explain to me...how it can.

Inflation Ahead

If the market goes to crash again.....I think more and more stimulous will result......