Andy1234

17 Comments

    • ON: Fri Oct 3rd 09:12 AM
      Commented on:
      Why the Bailout Cannot Solve a Thing: Nobody Is Blaming the Right Culprit
      incompetent.
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    • ON: Fri Oct 3rd 08:57 AM
      Commented on:
      Why the Bailout Cannot Solve a Thing: Nobody Is Blaming the Right Culprit
      capitalism isn't to blame. Its the government. They are the ones who urged lenders to have lax lending standards....plus they set interest rates. This all started in 1999 under the clinton administration for to increase home ownership rates among minorities and low-income consumers. Ground zero started at Fannie Mae as a pilot program.

      Capitilism is not the cause of these failures....its the government. They set up the conditions for the housing bubble...and even encourged it.

      and the sad part is.....they tried making homes more affordable....and they did the exact opposite. I don't think the government tries to create bubbles....they are just THAT encompetant.
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    • ON: Thu Oct 2nd 08:45 AM
      Commented on:
      Talk Me Down From the Wells Fargo Ledge
      Rather than focusing on ratings.....How would the bank look if house prices declined by 50-60-70% from the peak.......we are at what...20-30% decline from the peak?


      This could get ugly for every company out there.....regardless of what sector they are in. This was the largest housing bubble in history. There is a lot more carnage ahead.
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    • ON: Tue Sep 23rd 08:37 AM
      Commented on:
      Do Paulson and Bernanke Really Understand What's Going On?
      People should not buy a house without a 20% downpayment and a loan that isn't larger than 3X their salary.


      Poor people not affording homes is their problem....not the markets. Most people in Europe cannot afford homes, Why should we infringe on some people's rights to enhance the life of others?

      When did people expect they should get everything just because they have a heart beat?
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    • ON: Thu Sep 18th 08:34 AM
      Commented on:
      Five PEG-Ratio Play Stocks for 2008
      Yea, the coal companies looks good here...as does the oil companies and oil service companies.

      But the PEG has one problem....you are estimating future growth....and the lowest PEG ratio's on your list have super high growth rates.....it would also logical to have a worst case PEG ratio scenario.

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    • ON: Thu Sep 4th 08:21 AM
      Commented on:
      8 Stocks to Buy if McCain Wins
      Don't we already import coal from Canada? and wouldn't the majority of our Uranium 235 come from Canada or need to be imported as well?

      The largest supplier of oil is Canada to the USA.


      Looks like Canada will be doing well with their exports.
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    • ON: Tue Jun 24th 08:23 AM
      Commented on:
      The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful
      as oil production goes on and we spend more energy on getting the oil....NG is going to have one hell of a ride up. NG is used for oil sands production.....tar sands, bio-diesel refining, ethonal refining, etc.

      As the EROEI declines....More NG will be used.....you can see that NG inventories are building less slowly than proceeding years.....either from more demand from the public, more from oil companies, or a mixture of both. Should be interesting if we produce vast quantities from oil sands in the future...what effect that will have on NG prices...and the inventory of NG. NG production is declining in the USA....and I am willing to bet Mexico and Canada will start declining soon. LNG prices are higher than $13/MCF....going higher.
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    • ON: Wed Jun 11th 08:33 AM
      Commented on:
      Nationalizing Oil: Well-Intentioned, But Wrong
      the large oil companies in aggregate own like 3-6% of the total oil reserves in the world....they are nothing but small players in a very large market.


      They collectively produce around what...10 million barrels or so, which is 11.7%.......they are damn efficient...and they have to work with some pretty nasty countries in some nasty environments. They deserve the money.

      Why is everyone trying to take something that isn't theirs? and why is it now a problem?

      The market wants to use more oil than is supplied....this is physical and geological limits that we could possibly be running into.....and at some point we will hit these limits...regardless of how efficient or advanced we are at pulling the oil out of the ground.

      We need other forms of energy at some point.....and I cannot say where this energy should come from...or who provides the capital.....but the government is probably the least efficient at doing whatever.

      The government only has what it takes from others.
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    • ON: Sun Jun 1st 09:55 AM
      Commented on:
      Visa: Trading Transparency
      at $200/share....that makes Visa's market cap 200-250 billion. thats awfully large.....and makes the stock awfully expensive.

      I dunno....good company...but I am not feeling the price of it.

      using a 2.03 EPS for 2008.....and a 20% growth rate.....the fair value at the end of 2008 is $53/share.

      MA fair value at the end of 2008 given 20% growth is $228/share.

      possibly they always trade at a premium? I dunno....just seems expensive.
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    • ON: Sun Jun 1st 09:48 AM
      Commented on:
      Visa: Trading Transparency
      You guys honestly think V will trade at $200/share in 1 or 2 years? Thats an awfully large market cap......this company is a 200 billion-250 billion market cap?
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    • ON: Fri May 23rd 16:00 PM
      Commented on:
      Is Oil a Bubble? Part One
      Thats true....but America has declining NG production already.

      He wants to remove NG from producing electricity...and add that to transport....thats where we get the gain.

      he is a proponent of wind....and I agree with him. What he says makes SENSE.

      these other people are spewing information without reading too much into the problem on the supply side.

      this is a supply side driven problem....and soon supply will start to dwindle and fall off the cliff.

      I really cannot relate to economists.....as they think prices and money will cure problems.....yet the phsycists and geologists are saying otherwise.

      I am sure we will probably land somewhere in the middle. But one thing to keep in mind.....to produce the same amount of oil in the quantities we are using.......the numbers are something like 15 billion for 500K barrels. if we need 80MBPD NEW oil by 2030......thats 2.4 trillion bucks in investment....and the sad part is.....thats probably a conservative estimate. Now this doesn't take into account the increased energy costs for the infastructure.....prob... using water from the ocean, etc....which would probably be safe to say that the cost would be closer to 10 trillion dollars. Yes.....a factor over triple what I just estimated.

      Look at some of the new projects....and how their costs keep tripling in price.
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    • ON: Fri May 23rd 15:03 PM
      Commented on:
      Is Oil a Bubble? Part One
      Some studies show that Uranium will peak in 2030 at CURRENT rates.

      that could very well be pulled in a bit when everyone does a mad dash to nuclear. I have read that Thorium may also be used.....and that Uranium can be recycled a few times......but even so.....we are mainly living off the inventory of Uranium right now....we are supposed to be in production shortfalls by 2013-2015 from the studies that have been studied.

      take a look at Cameco's website....they have a couple of studies...as does a few others....even google and search around for a day. its pretty interesting stuff.
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    • ON: Fri May 23rd 14:42 PM
      Commented on:
      Is Oil a Bubble? Part One
      Not only does your dream future take energy to build.....where is that energy going to come from? Not to mention the materials to build all that infastructure.......or even the amount of oil to do it.

      remember....oil is used in a lot of places. I am not saying the price of oil is immune to go down.....but in the short term...there is no good quick fixes.

      and we don't know the energy return on energy invested for most of these energy gathering systems. as most of the processes are made from oil, by oil, transported by oil. Things might not be as rosey when you are losing 40% through transmission lines, then an energy loss for storing the energy in batteries, then recalling that energy.....and if the energy return on energy invested has a payback of 30 yrs or the life of the wind turbine or solar panel....is it worth making?
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    • ON: Fri May 23rd 12:03 PM
      Commented on:
      Is Oil a Bubble? Part One
      then explain to me why prices have risen the past 6 years or so and supply is completely flat since 2005?

      and if production coming online the next few years equates to how many barrels? and you look at the declines from mexico and russia...not to mention their internal demand.....you have no DATA to stand on.


      there is going to be short term prices volitility....but on a long term uptrend unless we get some other energy source or transfer to a different fuel for transportation.....whi... takes time.

      furthermore....even if we do go to NG or electric.....we just shift the problem to something else.....and we don't have the energy required to transfer the majority over....unless we start acting now.
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    • ON: Fri May 23rd 10:19 AM
      Commented on:
      Is Oil a Bubble? Part One
      well think of it in another way that an oil exec explained on TV in Europe.


      The current conventional oil resource RATE of 75ish million barrels a day will experience a conservative rate of decline of 6%. If you extrapolate those numbers going forward....in 25 yrs we will be producing 15 million barrels from that base. Estimates have oil demand going to 115 million barrels over the same time frame. We need to find and develop 100 million barrels during that time.

      There is no way we will be able to produce that amount of oil at that RATE....No way...thats higher than our current base of easy and cheap oil.

      all energy comes from the sun......alternative technology isn't there to produce the amount thats desired at the prices we want....we will have to live with less energy IMO.

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