Andy1234

Where Are Jim Rogers, Marc Faber and Doug Casey Investing Their Money in This Market?

doesn't MON make some seeds that can be used in dryer climates?

The Outlook for Corn

Its not speculators who are handling these markets.

Its government policies and the ability to access money at low interest rates.

The root of almost every "free market" problem lies in policies or money supply.

With a currency that has depreciated over 96% since 1913 or the year the fed reserve came into existance.....whenever you have a group controlling a money supply backed by nothing....everyone becomes a speculator just to maintain the purchasing power that you have saved.

The problem is government and their policies....and the fed reserve.

Is Oil a Bubble? Part One

Thats true....but America has declining NG production already.

He wants to remove NG from producing electricity...and add that to transport....thats where we get the gain.

he is a proponent of wind....and I agree with him. What he says makes SENSE.

these other people are spewing information without reading too much into the problem on the supply side.

this is a supply side driven problem....and soon supply will start to dwindle and fall off the cliff.

I really cannot relate to economists.....as they think prices and money will cure problems.....yet the phsycists and geologists are saying otherwise.

I am sure we will probably land somewhere in the middle. But one thing to keep in mind.....to produce the same amount of oil in the quantities we are using.......the numbers are something like 15 billion for 500K barrels. if we need 80MBPD NEW oil by 2030......thats 2.4 trillion bucks in investment....and the sad part is.....thats probably a conservative estimate. Now this doesn't take into account the increased energy costs for the infastructure.....prob... using water from the ocean, etc....which would probably be safe to say that the cost would be closer to 10 trillion dollars. Yes.....a factor over triple what I just estimated.

Look at some of the new projects....and how their costs keep tripling in price.

Is Oil a Bubble? Part One

Some studies show that Uranium will peak in 2030 at CURRENT rates.

that could very well be pulled in a bit when everyone does a mad dash to nuclear. I have read that Thorium may also be used.....and that Uranium can be recycled a few times......but even so.....we are mainly living off the inventory of Uranium right now....we are supposed to be in production shortfalls by 2013-2015 from the studies that have been studied.

take a look at Cameco's website....they have a couple of studies...as does a few others....even google and search around for a day. its pretty interesting stuff.

Is Oil a Bubble? Part One

Not only does your dream future take energy to build.....where is that energy going to come from? Not to mention the materials to build all that infastructure.......or even the amount of oil to do it.

remember....oil is used in a lot of places. I am not saying the price of oil is immune to go down.....but in the short term...there is no good quick fixes.

and we don't know the energy return on energy invested for most of these energy gathering systems. as most of the processes are made from oil, by oil, transported by oil. Things might not be as rosey when you are losing 40% through transmission lines, then an energy loss for storing the energy in batteries, then recalling that energy.....and if the energy return on energy invested has a payback of 30 yrs or the life of the wind turbine or solar panel....is it worth making?

Is Oil a Bubble? Part One

then explain to me why prices have risen the past 6 years or so and supply is completely flat since 2005?

and if production coming online the next few years equates to how many barrels? and you look at the declines from mexico and russia...not to mention their internal demand.....you have no DATA to stand on.


there is going to be short term prices volitility....but on a long term uptrend unless we get some other energy source or transfer to a different fuel for transportation.....whi... takes time.

furthermore....even if we do go to NG or electric.....we just shift the problem to something else.....and we don't have the energy required to transfer the majority over....unless we start acting now.

Is Oil a Bubble? Part One

well think of it in another way that an oil exec explained on TV in Europe.


The current conventional oil resource RATE of 75ish million barrels a day will experience a conservative rate of decline of 6%. If you extrapolate those numbers going forward....in 25 yrs we will be producing 15 million barrels from that base. Estimates have oil demand going to 115 million barrels over the same time frame. We need to find and develop 100 million barrels during that time.

There is no way we will be able to produce that amount of oil at that RATE....No way...thats higher than our current base of easy and cheap oil.

all energy comes from the sun......alternative technology isn't there to produce the amount thats desired at the prices we want....we will have to live with less energy IMO.

Is Oil a Bubble? Part One

reserves grow.....but the rate of flow of oil does not.


its going from one well that produces 5,000 barrels a day in SA

to huge capital, long lead time, low flow rates of oil from tar sands....which require huge amounts of resources...which could ultimately limit us. just do the research. Money can't defy physics...regardless of how much there is.

Is Oil a Bubble? Part One

I hope its a bubble.....but I think peak oil production will say otherwise.

This price will rise high enough to put everyone in a global recession. as the economies try to expand again....it will again put the economies back into a recession until we can find another energy source.

the problem is.....there is nothing out there that can dispalce the amount of energy from oil in any timely fashion.

We currently use 3 cubic miles worth of oil for our total energy needs world wide.

It is estimated that we will use 6 cubic miles worth of energy by 2030.

1 cubic mile worth of energy is an equivelant of

1,300 wind turbines installed every week for 50 years

1 900MW nuclear power plant installed every week for 50 years

250,000 solar panels installed EVERY DAY for 50 years.


During that time frame...we will hit peak oil, peak NG, and peak coal.

How do you grow economies without growing energy? We can get more efficient.....and maybe we can reduce our consumption of energy by 1 or 2 CMO worth.....but the math still doesn't work out.

Its going to get ugly.....and neither price nor technology will increase our oil supply....just pull up a chart of USA oil production.....neither price nor technology changed our supply....why would it for the world?

The true problem is too many people......or growth of either economies or population. its not sustainable.

there is a couple of scenario's.

demand falls while supply remains flat (lower prices) but as prices fall those expensive projects come offline

demand tries to grow....but supply is flat. higher prices

demand grows, supply falls, very very high prices

demand falls, supply falls faster, higher prices.


I think we are at demand is growing and supply if flat now...and supply will soon start to fall at 6% a year, year over year.