Big Al45

Hampton Roads Bankshares: Strong Value in the Horrific World of Commercial Banks

Don't think HMPR's management can wait until the stock price reaches $6 per share. Losses will in their ADC portfolio will force them to do an equity raise within the next 6 months. Furthermore, the target price for their cancelled equity raise was $5 per share.

Suggest you take a close look at the 30 to 90 day overdue loans when they file their 3rd Qtr call report. It will give you some idea about how quickly their ADC portfolio is deteriorating. The basic problem with the BHC is that the Gateway component's underwriting was lousy (and the former Gateway CEO was a scumbag) and that's dragging down the Shore and Hampton Roads components.

IMHO You're looking at an equity raise of at least 40 Million shares. Although they may try to issue hybrid securities like their stronger competitor Towne Bank did. But in either case, you're looking at a massive equity dilution for the current shareholders.

Will we soon be daytrading Berkshire? The flipside of the 50-to-1 split in Baby Berkshires (BRK.B): So long mystique. This from Berkshire's "Owner's Manual": "Charlie and I hope that you do not think of yourself as merely owning a piece of paper whose price wiggles around daily and that is a candidate for sale when some economic or political event makes you nervous ... "

Since Warren never pays any dividends, Berkshire IS nothing more "than a piece of paper" and a "candidate for sale" to a greater fool.

However, the split will allow more "retail" investors to "participate" and should give Goldman Suchs' prop trading desk more sheeple to fleece.

Bet GS will be running a secondary offering for Berkshire within 6 months.

Smaller Banks Not Immune to Securities Losses After All

A bad investment portfolio is usually not enough to bring down a bank. Most of the failures also made a lot of poorly underwritten loans - particularly AD&C loans.

Banks' Problem Loans Keep Growing

The ratio of non performing loans is important, but you also have to consider the % of bank assets that tied up in loans, the reserve for loan losses, and the ratio of shareholder equity to total liabilities.

A Texas ratio (non accruing loans + loans 90 days late and still accruing + restructured loans divided by shareholder equity plus loan loss reserve) under 30% is a better indicator of bank health than a NPL ratio under 5%.

However, regardless of whatever metric one uses, the banking system is big trouble - much bigger trouble than the FED and FDIC will acknowledge.

At least a thousand chartered banks will fail by the end of 2011 - although that number doesn't translate directly into the same number of publically traded stocks. The majority of the 1,000 failures will be privately held banks.

In addition, most publically traded "bank stocks" are bank holding companies that own multiple banks. For example, Synovus owns over 30 individual banks - most of which have NPL ratios over 3%.

BB&T-Colonial Deal Illustrates It's the Big Bank Chiefs Who Win Again

What are the details of the loss sharing agreement with the FDIC regarding CNB's assets?? This should information should be disclosed in the prospectus for BBT's secondary offering, but, somehow I doubt that it will be.

The $15 Billion in CNB "assets" covered by the loss share agreement are probably worth $8 Billion, at most. So, how much of the $7 Billion loss will BB&T shareholders have to take?

I imagine BBT's share of the loss will be a whole lot more than the 750 million BBT is raising though this secondary offering.

This deal has a certain stench do it - like the BOA - Merrill shotgun marriage. Did Sheila pull a Paulson and threaten to fire King?

Should Bernanke Be Reappointed?

Looks like Bernanke has lined up support from all of the PhDs who have drunk Milton Friedman's Kool Aid.

Why not appoint somebody who actually ran a commercial bank instead of some clown from academia who has no practical experience and whose entire knowledge set comes from reading other clowns' dissertations.

Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, Charlie Gasparino Bash Finance Blogs

Personnaly, I would be much "better off" if my crappy local cable service would drop CNBC and replace it with either Fox Business or Bloomberg. Not that they are great, but they're better than CNBS.


On Jul 24 03:03 PM redwine44 wrote:

> Do any of you critics really think that you are better off if CNBC
> goes off the air?
>
> Do professional money managers pay much attention to what anonymous
> bloggers write?
>
> Would you trust your company or union pension plan, which is maybe
> in the billions of dollars, to the hands of amateur bloggers?
>
> So what if CNBC is 10 minutes of useful news in a 50 minute hour?
>
>
> Go ahead, take your shots at me.

Apparently greed is still good, but in Oliver Stone's upcoming sequel to Wall Street - called Money Never Sleeps - a corporate raider like Michael Douglas' Gordon Gekko isn't villain enough: Now the bad guy is a short-selling hedgie.

Yes, hedge funds are chump change compared to the goniffs at Goldman Sachs.


On Jul 23 08:50 PM montanamark wrote:

> how about a movie on GS?

Goldman Sachs Principal Transactions Update: 60% Decline

Let alone the skimming feature incorporated into Goldman's code.


On Jul 10 10:44 AM Rollerball wrote:

> MSM will denigrate "program trading", while the mere mention of "front-running"
> will be taboo. 'Nothing to see sheeple, move along!'

Is a Case of Quant Trading Sabotage About to Destroy Goldman Sachs?

Great reporting Tyler.

However, GS will cover this up somehow. I'm sure they'll find a way to hold the trial in secret and then permanently seal the court records.

Also, I wonder how they got the FBI to move so quickly. Didn't think Muller was on their payroll.

Dennis Kneale Takes on Zero Hedge...And Fails

Think you are being too hard on douchbags.


On Jul 01 06:11 PM Brownbullshat wrote:

> If you google Dennis Kneale douchebag, you will get almost 1000 hits.
> Hmmm I wonder why

Bank Earnings: Why I Don't Trust Analyst Reports

And if your dog chews up the picture or urinates on it, - then short the bank???


On Jun 30 10:54 AM Andrew Butter wrote:

> Well I just don't trust bank's audits.
> A while back I wrote that if you want to decide if you invest in
> a bank, take a photo of the CEO, show it to your dog, if the dog
> wags his tail, then go for it.
>
> I still think that's by far the most reliable method.

State Loan-to-Deposit Ratios: Better Late than Never?

The FDIC is probably too distracted by the need to close insolvent banks to worry about enforcing deposit to loan ratios.

Looks like Goldman will be putting most of its branch banks in Utah when, or if, it ever gets around to commerical banking.

AIG Fraud and Goldman's CDO Collateral Calls

Goldman's orchestration of this collapse is a scandal for the ages. But it won't become public until Blankfein and the other goniffs are long dead and some future historian finds incriminating documents filed far away some dingy alcove of the National Archives.

Goldman simply has too much clout and is effectively above the law.

Credit Card Charge Off Rate Highest in 20 Years - Moody's

Wahoo - more green shoots. Credit card chargeoffs were "less bad" than expected.