Big Al45's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/198877/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/172435-hampton-roads-bankshares-strong-value-in-the-horrific-world-of-commercial-banks?source=feed#comment-755352 755352
Suggest you take a close look at the 30 to 90 day overdue loans when they file their 3rd Qtr call report. It will give you some idea about how quickly their ADC portfolio is deteriorating. The basic problem with the BHC is that the Gateway component's underwriting was lousy (and the former Gateway CEO was a scumbag) and that's dragging down the Shore and Hampton Roads components.

IMHO You're looking at an equity raise of at least 40 Million shares. Although they may try to issue hybrid securities like their stronger competitor Towne Bank did. But in either case, you're looking at a massive equity dilution for the current shareholders.]]> Wed, 11 Nov 2009 10:49:57 -0500
Suggest you take a close look at the 30 to 90 day overdue loans when they file their 3rd Qtr call report. It will give you some idea about how quickly their ADC portfolio is deteriorating. The basic problem with the BHC is that the Gateway component's underwriting was lousy (and the former Gateway CEO was a scumbag) and that's dragging down the Shore and Hampton Roads components.

IMHO You're looking at an equity raise of at least 40 Million shares. Although they may try to issue hybrid securities like their stronger competitor Towne Bank did. But in either case, you're looking at a massive equity dilution for the current shareholders.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/35738?source=feed#comment-743229 743229
However, the split will allow more "retail" investors to "participate" and should give Goldman Suchs' prop trading desk more sheeple to fleece.

Bet GS will be running a secondary offering for Berkshire within 6 months.]]> Tue, 03 Nov 2009 18:28:39 -0500
However, the split will allow more "retail" investors to "participate" and should give Goldman Suchs' prop trading desk more sheeple to fleece.

Bet GS will be running a secondary offering for Berkshire within 6 months.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157480-smaller-banks-not-immune-to-securities-losses-after-all?source=feed#comment-640625 640625 Fri, 21 Aug 2009 20:25:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/156339-banks-problem-loans-keep-growing?source=feed#comment-635909 635909
A Texas ratio (non accruing loans + loans 90 days late and still accruing + restructured loans divided by shareholder equity plus loan loss reserve) under 30% is a better indicator of bank health than a NPL ratio under 5%.

However, regardless of whatever metric one uses, the banking system is big trouble - much bigger trouble than the FED and FDIC will acknowledge.

At least a thousand chartered banks will fail by the end of 2011 - although that number doesn't translate directly into the same number of publically traded stocks. The majority of the 1,000 failures will be privately held banks.

In addition, most publically traded "bank stocks" are bank holding companies that own multiple banks. For example, Synovus owns over 30 individual banks - most of which have NPL ratios over 3%.
]]> Tue, 18 Aug 2009 23:35:29 -0400
A Texas ratio (non accruing loans + loans 90 days late and still accruing + restructured loans divided by shareholder equity plus loan loss reserve) under 30% is a better indicator of bank health than a NPL ratio under 5%.

However, regardless of whatever metric one uses, the banking system is big trouble - much bigger trouble than the FED and FDIC will acknowledge.

At least a thousand chartered banks will fail by the end of 2011 - although that number doesn't translate directly into the same number of publically traded stocks. The majority of the 1,000 failures will be privately held banks.

In addition, most publically traded "bank stocks" are bank holding companies that own multiple banks. For example, Synovus owns over 30 individual banks - most of which have NPL ratios over 3%.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156614-bb-t-colonial-deal-illustrates-it-s-the-big-bank-chiefs-who-win-again?source=feed#comment-633869 633869
The $15 Billion in CNB "assets" covered by the loss share agreement are probably worth $8 Billion, at most. So, how much of the $7 Billion loss will BB&T shareholders have to take?

I imagine BBT's share of the loss will be a whole lot more than the 750 million BBT is raising though this secondary offering.

This deal has a certain stench do it - like the BOA - Merrill shotgun marriage. Did Sheila pull a Paulson and threaten to fire King?]]> Mon, 17 Aug 2009 18:38:10 -0400
The $15 Billion in CNB "assets" covered by the loss share agreement are probably worth $8 Billion, at most. So, how much of the $7 Billion loss will BB&T shareholders have to take?

I imagine BBT's share of the loss will be a whole lot more than the 750 million BBT is raising though this secondary offering.

This deal has a certain stench do it - like the BOA - Merrill shotgun marriage. Did Sheila pull a Paulson and threaten to fire King?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151314-should-bernanke-be-reappointed?source=feed#comment-604485 604485
Why not appoint somebody who actually ran a commercial bank instead of some clown from academia who has no practical experience and whose entire knowledge set comes from reading other clowns' dissertations.]]> Mon, 27 Jul 2009 22:10:25 -0400
Why not appoint somebody who actually ran a commercial bank instead of some clown from academia who has no practical experience and whose entire knowledge set comes from reading other clowns' dissertations.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/150750-michelle-caruso-cabrera-charlie-gasparino-bash-finance-blogs?source=feed#comment-601542 601542

On Jul 24 03:03 PM redwine44 wrote:

> Do any of you critics really think that you are better off if CNBC
> goes off the air?
>
> Do professional money managers pay much attention to what anonymous
> bloggers write?
>
> Would you trust your company or union pension plan, which is maybe
> in the billions of dollars, to the hands of amateur bloggers?
>
> So what if CNBC is 10 minutes of useful news in a 50 minute hour?
>
>
> Go ahead, take your shots at me.]]> Fri, 24 Jul 2009 21:11:27 -0400

On Jul 24 03:03 PM redwine44 wrote:

> Do any of you critics really think that you are better off if CNBC
> goes off the air?
>
> Do professional money managers pay much attention to what anonymous
> bloggers write?
>
> Would you trust your company or union pension plan, which is maybe
> in the billions of dollars, to the hands of amateur bloggers?
>
> So what if CNBC is 10 minutes of useful news in a 50 minute hour?
>
>
> Go ahead, take your shots at me.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/28778?source=feed#comment-600400 600400

On Jul 23 08:50 PM montanamark wrote:

> how about a movie on GS?]]> Thu, 23 Jul 2009 22:35:19 -0400

On Jul 23 08:50 PM montanamark wrote:

> how about a movie on GS?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148094-goldman-sachs-principal-transactions-update-60-decline?source=feed#comment-582475 582475

On Jul 10 10:44 AM Rollerball wrote:

> MSM will denigrate "program trading", while the mere mention of "front-running"
> will be taboo. 'Nothing to see sheeple, move along!']]> Fri, 10 Jul 2009 13:39:12 -0400

On Jul 10 10:44 AM Rollerball wrote:

> MSM will denigrate "program trading", while the mere mention of "front-running"
> will be taboo. 'Nothing to see sheeple, move along!']]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147104-is-a-case-of-quant-trading-sabotage-about-to-destroy-goldman-sachs?source=feed#comment-576051 576051
However, GS will cover this up somehow. I'm sure they'll find a way to hold the trial in secret and then permanently seal the court records.

Also, I wonder how they got the FBI to move so quickly. Didn't think Muller was on their payroll.]]> Mon, 06 Jul 2009 15:17:52 -0400
However, GS will cover this up somehow. I'm sure they'll find a way to hold the trial in secret and then permanently seal the court records.

Also, I wonder how they got the FBI to move so quickly. Didn't think Muller was on their payroll.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146542-dennis-kneale-takes-on-zero-hedge-and-fails?source=feed#comment-570616 570616 Think you are being too hard on douchbags.


On Jul 01 06:11 PM Brownbullshat wrote:

> If you google Dennis Kneale douchebag, you will get almost 1000 hits.
> Hmmm I wonder why]]> Wed, 01 Jul 2009 18:19:48 -0400 Think you are being too hard on douchbags.


On Jul 01 06:11 PM Brownbullshat wrote:

> If you google Dennis Kneale douchebag, you will get almost 1000 hits.
> Hmmm I wonder why]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145980-bank-earnings-why-i-don-t-trust-analyst-reports?source=feed#comment-569327 569327

On Jun 30 10:54 AM Andrew Butter wrote:

> Well I just don't trust bank's audits.
> A while back I wrote that if you want to decide if you invest in
> a bank, take a photo of the CEO, show it to your dog, if the dog
> wags his tail, then go for it.
>
> I still think that's by far the most reliable method.]]> Tue, 30 Jun 2009 21:20:30 -0400

On Jun 30 10:54 AM Andrew Butter wrote:

> Well I just don't trust bank's audits.
> A while back I wrote that if you want to decide if you invest in
> a bank, take a photo of the CEO, show it to your dog, if the dog
> wags his tail, then go for it.
>
> I still think that's by far the most reliable method.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146065-state-loan-to-deposit-ratios-better-late-than-never?source=feed#comment-568659 568659
Looks like Goldman will be putting most of its branch banks in Utah when, or if, it ever gets around to commerical banking. ]]> Tue, 30 Jun 2009 13:09:30 -0400
Looks like Goldman will be putting most of its branch banks in Utah when, or if, it ever gets around to commerical banking. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145503-aig-fraud-and-goldman-s-cdo-collateral-calls?source=feed#comment-563686 563686
Goldman simply has too much clout and is effectively above the law. ]]> Fri, 26 Jun 2009 11:59:04 -0400
Goldman simply has too much clout and is effectively above the law. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145146-credit-card-charge-off-rate-highest-in-20-years-moody-s?source=feed#comment-560672 560672 Wed, 24 Jun 2009 13:43:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/144521-goldman-sachs-aig-collateral-demands-behind-company-s-implosion?source=feed#comment-557316 557316 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 10:11:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/144505-bank-failures-three-more-down-how-many-more-to-go?source=feed#comment-557281 557281
Probably another 150 over the next 18 months, although there are at least twice that many insolvent banks.

The FDIC isn't in any hurry to close an insolvent bank as long as (1) its depositors are not bailing out; (2) the bank is not making bad new loans; and (3) the bank is working through its non performing loans and bank owned real estate. While the bank write offs its non performing loans, the bank's shareholders take the losses, not the FDIC insurance fund.
]]> Mon, 22 Jun 2009 10:01:26 -0400
Probably another 150 over the next 18 months, although there are at least twice that many insolvent banks.

The FDIC isn't in any hurry to close an insolvent bank as long as (1) its depositors are not bailing out; (2) the bank is not making bad new loans; and (3) the bank is working through its non performing loans and bank owned real estate. While the bank write offs its non performing loans, the bank's shareholders take the losses, not the FDIC insurance fund.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144283-credit-suisse-and-etfs-going-for-broke?source=feed#comment-554245 554245 Fri, 19 Jun 2009 15:31:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/141999-latest-spin-on-collapsing-reits-and-taxpayer-subsidies?source=feed#comment-537519 537519 Mon, 08 Jun 2009 14:25:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/141557-goldman-sachs-principal-transactions-update-741-million-shares?source=feed#comment-534254 534254
Still, if GS is making purchases for the FED and the FED is hiding these purchases in its off balance sheet accounts, there is no limit to how long this rally will last.



]]> Fri, 05 Jun 2009 19:36:38 -0400
Still, if GS is making purchases for the FED and the FED is hiding these purchases in its off balance sheet accounts, there is no limit to how long this rally will last.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139875-is-program-trading-especially-slp-affecting-trade-in-the-stock-market?source=feed#comment-520154 520154

On May 27 01:06 PM CautiousInvestor wrote:
-- there was a power underneath the
> market that kept holding it up and trading the futures. I watch the
> futures every day and every tick, and a tremendous amount of volume
> came in a several points during the last few weeks, when the market
> was just about ready to break and shot right up again. Usually toward
> the end of the day – it happened a week ago Friday, at 7 minutes
> to 4 o’clock, almost 100,000 S&P futures contracts were traded,
> and then in the last 5 minutes, up to 4 o’clock, another 100,000
> contracts were traded, and lifted the Dow from being down 18 to up
> over 44 or 50 points in 7 minutes. That is 10 to 20 billion dollars
> to be able to move the market in such a way. Who has that kind of
> money to move this market?]]> Wed, 27 May 2009 16:49:48 -0400

On May 27 01:06 PM CautiousInvestor wrote:
-- there was a power underneath the
> market that kept holding it up and trading the futures. I watch the
> futures every day and every tick, and a tremendous amount of volume
> came in a several points during the last few weeks, when the market
> was just about ready to break and shot right up again. Usually toward
> the end of the day – it happened a week ago Friday, at 7 minutes
> to 4 o’clock, almost 100,000 S&P futures contracts were traded,
> and then in the last 5 minutes, up to 4 o’clock, another 100,000
> contracts were traded, and lifted the Dow from being down 18 to up
> over 44 or 50 points in 7 minutes. That is 10 to 20 billion dollars
> to be able to move the market in such a way. Who has that kind of
> money to move this market?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138106-guaranty-financial-group-on-the-rocks?source=feed#comment-514886 514886
Think that Sheila selects the banks for closure based on the FDIC's ability to dispose of the assets and not the degree of insolvency. There's no hurry to close a bank provided the depositors don't withdraw their deposits and the bank doesn't make more questionable loans

Personally, I'm betting that Corus or Security Bank of Georgia will be the next mult billion dollar bank closure. However, that won't happen for a couple of weeks. The FDIC can't handle more than one large failure a month. ]]> Fri, 22 May 2009 16:03:28 -0400
Think that Sheila selects the banks for closure based on the FDIC's ability to dispose of the assets and not the degree of insolvency. There's no hurry to close a bank provided the depositors don't withdraw their deposits and the bank doesn't make more questionable loans

Personally, I'm betting that Corus or Security Bank of Georgia will be the next mult billion dollar bank closure. However, that won't happen for a couple of weeks. The FDIC can't handle more than one large failure a month. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/24530?source=feed#comment-510234 510234 Tue, 19 May 2009 15:59:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/138495-the-economy-optimism-vs-fact?source=feed#comment-510221 510221
I don't understand a lot of Tyler's information either. He assumes we're all professional traders with access to the latest trading software and graphics.

Think he's trying to say that people are buying more upside calls than buying downside puts. That tends to force the S&P index higher. In contrast, people should be buying fewer calls and more puts because housing starts continue to decline and the economy can't recover unless housing recovers.
]]> Tue, 19 May 2009 15:49:48 -0400
I don't understand a lot of Tyler's information either. He assumes we're all professional traders with access to the latest trading software and graphics.

Think he's trying to say that people are buying more upside calls than buying downside puts. That tends to force the S&P index higher. In contrast, people should be buying fewer calls and more puts because housing starts continue to decline and the economy can't recover unless housing recovers.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138238-regulatory-tightening-remember-chuck-prince?source=feed#comment-508358 508358 Mon, 18 May 2009 12:14:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/138155-bullish-on-kbw-bank-regional-bank-pair-trade?source=feed#comment-508166 508166

]]> Mon, 18 May 2009 10:24:40 -0400

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/137828-canadian-banks-canada-s-moment-to-shine?source=feed#comment-505756 505756
I've made money trading them, but I'm not sure they belong in a buy and hold portfolio.]]> Fri, 15 May 2009 15:40:32 -0400
I've made money trading them, but I'm not sure they belong in a buy and hold portfolio.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/24182?source=feed#comment-502707 502707

On May 13 05:11 PM Market Sniper wrote:

> Angelo! Buddy! Best high tail yourself over to Brazil! You did a
> Rio Trade (a trade requiring you to leave for a country without an
> extradition treaty with the US of A), naughty, naughty! Willing to
> bet he will be joined by a few more miscreants before this is all
> over.]]> Wed, 13 May 2009 17:32:26 -0400

On May 13 05:11 PM Market Sniper wrote:

> Angelo! Buddy! Best high tail yourself over to Brazil! You did a
> Rio Trade (a trade requiring you to leave for a country without an
> extradition treaty with the US of A), naughty, naughty! Willing to
> bet he will be joined by a few more miscreants before this is all
> over.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/135785-goldman-sachs-why-aren-t-trading-profits-raising-any-red-flags?source=feed#comment-492388 492388
1) GS is pulling a Madoff and lying its ass off to support its last (and future) equity raise(s). and/or

2) Using its SLP authority to control market prices and rip off "retail" investors.

]]> Wed, 06 May 2009 14:06:49 -0400
1) GS is pulling a Madoff and lying its ass off to support its last (and future) equity raise(s). and/or

2) Using its SLP authority to control market prices and rip off "retail" investors.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/135730-bofa-s-state-of-denial?source=feed#comment-492374 492374
Since bank stock investors are often retirees looking for supplemental income, conditions for a secondary equiity issuance are not favorable.


On May 06 01:01 PM asaf123 wrote:

> If the TARP Preferred assets are converted to common shares, doesn't
> that mean a huge dilution for existing share holders? Why would the
> existing common shares rally in that event?]]> Wed, 06 May 2009 14:00:10 -0400
Since bank stock investors are often retirees looking for supplemental income, conditions for a secondary equiity issuance are not favorable.


On May 06 01:01 PM asaf123 wrote:

> If the TARP Preferred assets are converted to common shares, doesn't
> that mean a huge dilution for existing share holders? Why would the
> existing common shares rally in that event?]]>