Big Al45

Is Program Trading - Especially SLP - Affecting Trade in the Stock Market?

There's only one power that can do that: the FED. And their IG can't find the $7 Trillion the FED has in off balance sheet accounts


On May 27 01:06 PM CautiousInvestor wrote:
-- there was a power underneath the
> market that kept holding it up and trading the futures. I watch the
> futures every day and every tick, and a tremendous amount of volume
> came in a several points during the last few weeks, when the market
> was just about ready to break and shot right up again. Usually toward
> the end of the day – it happened a week ago Friday, at 7 minutes
> to 4 o’clock, almost 100,000 S&P futures contracts were traded,
> and then in the last 5 minutes, up to 4 o’clock, another 100,000
> contracts were traded, and lifted the Dow from being down 18 to up
> over 44 or 50 points in 7 minutes. That is 10 to 20 billion dollars
> to be able to move the market in such a way. Who has that kind of
> money to move this market?

Tuesday's Financial Trifecta

Notice that Bandit said Citi was making an operating profit before writedowns. If they weren't capable of doing that with all the lost cost money that Uncle Ben and Timmy have given them, then Citi's management really sucks.

All this means is that their 1st Quarter 2009 loss will be less than the 4th Quarter 2008 loss. I put the over/under line for their 1st Quarter loss at $5 Billion.

The Rally, When It Comes, Will Be a Doozy

Just think One share of Citi for $1.50..


On Mar 06 04:49 PM athena wrote:

> They will adopt FASB 157b-- By next week they will be discussing
> this publically and then watch the shorts cover.
> I figure a 25-50% upside for the banks in a day.

Will Obama's Solution Finally Save the Banking Sector?

JD Your comment that

"The fact of the matter is that the ultimate magnitude of bank losses is unknowable because it is dependent on the course of the economy, the liquidity of markets, and the risk appetite of investors"

is all that anyone needs to know. In this environment, the banks are either:
1) barely solvent using their own optimimistic assumptions regarding these factors; or

2) insolvent using the street"s assumptions regarding these factors

3) totally worthless if the 2nd great depression occurs, employment reaches 20%, and people have to liquidate their "investments" just to eat.

Given uncertainty over which set of assumptions is correct, it shouldn't be a surprise that no one wants to "own" a bank stock for more than 24 hours.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Are We Really Nearing a Bottom?

Don't think Ambrose is on the fence. Sounds like he is expecting a bear market rally sometime soon. He just doesn't know when the rally will end or how far the market will fall after the rally ends.

Personally, my money is on an S&P Index value around 500 when the bottom is finally reached. Making DJIA is predictions is impossible with all of the zombie stocks that are included in it now.

Cramer: Dow Could Drop Another 14%, Oil's Going to $50

Wow Dow 8300 by October 2009?? Cramer is year too late - think it will be Dow 8300 by next Monday.

Getting Past the Panic

I'd buy GE/GS perpetual preferred stock with a 10% dividend, too. But I can't - the common folk don't get the sweethart deals that Buffet does.

BTW. The writer should know that many commodity and energy stocks currently have PE ratios below the "deep recession zone of 8 to 12" What would he call a PE ratio of 4 to 8 - the "moderate depression zone"???

Fear Not Yet a Factor

Despite what this author seems to think, there is a significant difference between short selling and naked short selling. Naked short selling basically stealing and it is not good for any market. Selling shares that can't be borrowed (or may not even exist) would be fraud anywhere except Wall Street.

If the SEC didn't have its head up its butt, naked short selling could have been eliminated years ago.