Big Al45

History Suggests the Financial Bottom May Be Near

Think I'd wait until AIG is resolved before calling a bottom. If they go bankrupt, Dow 10,000 may seem like a pipe dream

Calling a Bottom: It's Time To Party

Dear John,

Is this post subtle satire? If you seriously believe that the bottom has been reached, the real John Thain must have put you back on his payroll.

Islamic Banking in America?

If the "borrower" fails to repay the loan, will he be treated as a thief and have his hand chopped off?

On Recent Financial Stories

Gramps2

Agree completely with what you wrote. Sounds like you may have actually managed something.

Witnessing the Biggest Transfer of Wealth in History

You are right on point.
GS and the hedge funds act in concert to create the oil bubble and short the financial and energy companies. Then they take the profits from these activities and buy whatever stocks and bank assets they want at a fraction of their true worth.

Meanwhile, Hammerin Hank covers their back and makes sure the scheme works.

Lehman Brothers Take-over: Implications for Financials

The so called "peer group" does not provide a meaningful comparison . Lehman has very little in common with monoline insurers, Business Development Companies, and regional banks that don't have significant off balance sheet exposure. Their asset mix (and risk exposure) is considerably different than that of investment banks like Lehman.

The comparators should be limited to other investment banks and the large money center banks (such as BAC, RY, DB, TD, UBS.)

10 Financial Entities On the Brink

Cesar, I agree in principal with your comments, but why would anyone want to short VNBC or DSL?

The potential reward from shorting stocks that are trading under $3 a share is much less than the potential risk. Some idiot (like Ken Thompson or Ken Lewis) could decide to acquire them to expand their "footprint in the rich California market.?"

Fear Not Yet a Factor

Despite what this author seems to think, there is a significant difference between short selling and naked short selling. Naked short selling basically stealing and it is not good for any market. Selling shares that can't be borrowed (or may not even exist) would be fraud anywhere except Wall Street.

If the SEC didn't have its head up its butt, naked short selling could have been eliminated years ago.

10 Financial Entities On the Brink

For an independent opinion on the viability of a particular bank, check out the bank ratings at bankrate.com/brm/safes... Any bank that receives one star (including WM, BKUNA, DSL) from bankrate is probably going to fail. Any bank that receives two stars (Corus, Wachovia) is at risk of failure. Any bank that receives three or more stars (Regions) does not have an immediate risk of failure.

One word of caution. To use this site you have to know the banks legal structure. Most publically traded banks are bank (or thrift) holding companies that own multiple subsidiary banks. Bankrate evaluates each subsidiary bank separately. A holding company can transfer all of its garbage assets to the holding company level and make the subsidiary banks' financial statements look clean.

Financial Crisis: Getting Old

Agree that stock prices of the survivor banks will bottom 3 to 6 months before the peak in bank failures. But the July 11 lows will be retested and possibly breached, before that bottom occurs.

I would not be a buyer until the retest happens. And even if that retest occurs within the next 60 days, I would wait to see 3rd quarter earnings before buying.

Financial sector XLFs won't provide much of a gain if several heavily weighted banks fail or are taken over at fire sale prices.

Financials and Housing: The Outlook Remains Ugly

This writer of this article seems to forget that all real estate is local. His conclusions regarding Alt A defaults is probably on point for banks that have a high exposure to mortgage loans made in Southern and Central California, Nevada, Florida, Michigan, Ohio, and the Atlanta metroplex.

But, there are a lot of other areas in the US where housing prices did not rise much during the housing bubble and prices in those areas probably will not fall more than 15% peak to trough. As long as the government bails out Fannie and Freddie (which seems certain), banks that don't have significant exposure to California, Florida, etc. should return to profitability by the end of 2009.

For the record, I do not own any bank stocks, and expect the market to retest and probably exceed the July lows. However, the level of pessimism in this article is excessive.