contender

Options Trader: Friday Outlook

Oil needs to come down. Oil will come down.

I dont much understand why prices have to skyrocket so so much more than demand. Im sorry but pricing for suspicion of future supply/demand problems doesnt get it for me. This stuff should be priced at a supply/demand rate that looks out only a fairly short time - pricing ih oil armagedon is not useful nor truthful at this point.

With the supply situation right now, /at least/ the front-month contracts should be around 95 /at most/ -- and I prefer $65 as closer to the truth for the front-month.

If hording is going on then perhaps there is truth in some of the what... 40% rise in oil in the last year, but Ill believe hording is going on if you can tell me theres been a marked increase in barrels actually being delivered.

Im glad we hit the breaking point. Congress crying, drivers staying home so they can afford to buy nice compact 36mpg vehicles with their cash (since no one will give em a loan)... it all means that oil is about to recede -- and if its true to its nature itll recede with a BANG as all the crooks get out of the trade to bring oil back down before the cops step in so they can play the game again sometime.

I think this time will be a little different in that when it does stabilize lower the dips will be bought pretty agressively, so it may not languish long as the second-strikers get their chance to get in.

Im tempted to play oil short -- Jack be nimble...