contender

Is the Dollar Rallying on Realigned Expectations?

As much as I hate to admit it -- cuz im way against the creative abandon the fed and sec-treas have used to abate this credit/confidence issue -- I think Paulson may have restored some confidence in the bucko. I hear those TV personalities saying the dollar is coming down cuz oil is coming down... errumm... whatever ! If our monetary life is predicated on sentiment to a rectangular piece of paper then methinks our (and their) confidence in our dollar is factor # 1 - I cant reconcile the huge fiscal deficit we are carrying with a strong dollar though

I have to take issue with your conclusion that $120 oil is acceptable - I dont think it is. The current 'shock' has yet to completely seep through to the consumer -- and we have heard quite a few companies talking about using the pricing power they have to jack up prices. Of course they are already engaged in the American past-time of just putting less content in each unit and saving costs on the margin.

In any case I think oil needs to be closer to $100, and /should/ be $85, tops at this point -- I guess Ill settle for $100 -- but $120 is still too high by far.

Take care.

Historic Financial Collapse Underway?

I always find it hard to believe in extreme scenarios. The truth almost always ends up being somewhere in the middle.

That said, I think the number of perps...err... goldman sachs...err.. governemtn officials they are trotting out to tell us that we worry too much is another 'tell' that things are worse than normal.

It all hinges on housing. What breaks the downward spiral ? Its a degenerative feedback loop, and what breaks it -- especially as the government offshores our jobs and devalues our dollar so there will be fewer and fewer solvent families and individuals to sop up the excess inventory and stabilize prices ?

What breaks the cycle ?